Podcast #146: The dropping major party vote
Ben is joined by Jill Sheppard and Emily Foley to discuss the long-term trend of the major parties losing primary votes: what is causing the trend, how it might play out in 2025 and whether they can do anything to reverse the trend. The...
Where might sophomore surge have an impact in 2025?
In yesterday's blog post I analysed the historical evidence for sophomore surge having an impact in Australian federal elections, dating back to 1998.
"Sophomore surge" refers to the phenomenon of a first-term MP performing relatively better than other candidates for their party, doubly so if...
What’s the historical evidence for sophomore surge?
I have referenced the concept of "personal vote" and "sophomore surge" quite a few times during this campaign, and in the past, but I thought it would be useful to actually collect data and analyse how much of an effect we can detect from...
Button pushed for WA upper house
Over five weeks after the state election was held, the WA Electoral Commission has finally concluded the counting procedure for the WA Legislative Council, with the button pushed yesterday afternoon. This resulted in the full distribution of preferences, electing the 37 members for the...
Podcast #145: Enrolments hit a record high
Ben is joined by Duncan McDonnell from Griffith University to discuss the close of rolls and nominations and the role of Gen Z voters in the election. The seat of the week is Lingiari in the Northern Territory, and we also talk about Indigenous...
The role of preferences in the two-party race
Australia has used preferential voting for over one hundred years, and in that time the party system has changed quite a bit. Since the 1950s, there has been an increasing trend of minor parties picking up votes, but until recently these votes were not...
Nominations declared – the statistical wrap-up
Nominations were declared at midday yesterday across Australia, but it took all afternoon to slowly get a sense of the candidate figures. I hope everyone found my live blog helpful, as I attempted to summarise as many seats as we could find data for....
Candidate nominations live blog
7:16 - I'm going to end this live blog here and come back tomorrow morning with a summary of the candidate numbers.
One Nation has ended up running 147 candidates, with Trumpet of Patriots running 100, Family First 92, 46 Libertarians and 42 Legalise Cannabis....
Podcast #144: Will the Greens hold their own?
Ben is joined by Stewart Jackson and Phoebe Hayman to discuss the role of the Greens in the federal election: the seats they are defending and are challenging for, the rivalry between Labor and the Greens and how the electoral system shapes their relationship....
How the map changed from 2007 to 2022
From one election to the next, the swings back and forth of Australian politics can look cyclical - that things start and end in the same place. But when you widen the time frame, things look different. Over time, some place move from being...