Cause of by-election
Sitting Labor MP Tim Pallas retired as Treasurer of Victoria and Member for Werribee in December 2024.
Margin – ALP 10.9%
Incumbent MP
Tim Pallas, since 2014. Previously member for Tarneit, 2006-2014.
Geography
Western Victoria. Werribee covers the suburbs of Werribee, Werribee South and Wyndham Vale, and areas to the west of Werribee. The entire electorate lies in Wyndham City.
History
Werribee previously existed as an electorate from 1976 to 2002.
Werribee was won in 1976 by Liberal candidate Neville Hudson, but he lost in 1979 to the ALP’s Ken Coghill.
Coghill held Werribee from 1979 to 1996, and served as Speaker of the Legislative Assembly from 1988 to 1992.
Labor’s Mary Gillett won Werribee in 1996, and was re-elected in 1999.
In 2002, Werribee was replaced by Tarneit, and Gillett was re-elected in the newly named seat.
Tarneit was won in 2006 by Labor candidate Tim Pallas, and he was re-elected in 2010.
Werribee was restored in 2014, and Pallas shifted to the restored seat, winning re-election comfortably. Pallas was re-elected in 2018 and 2022. Pallas served as Treasurer from Labor’s return to power in 2014 until his retirement at the end of 2024.
- Matthew Emerson (Family First)
- Paul Hopper (Independent)
- John Lister (Labor)
- Shohre Mansouri Jajee (Animal Justice)
- Xavier Menta (Legalise Cannabis)
- Ajiz Moinuddin (Independent)
- Sue Munro (Victorian Socialists)
- Steve Murphy (Liberal)
- Rifai Raheem (Greens)
Assessment
Werribee is a reasonably safe Labor seat but if the party is doing quite badly it’s the kind of seat that could fall at a by-election.
| Candidate | Party | Votes | % | Swing |
| Tim Pallas | Labor | 17,512 | 45.4 | -0.6 |
| Mia Shaw | Liberal | 9,779 | 25.3 | +8.7 |
| Jack Boddeke | Greens | 2,613 | 6.8 | +0.3 |
| Paul Hopper | Independent | 2,278 | 5.9 | +5.9 |
| Sue Munro | Victorian Socialists | 1,391 | 3.6 | +3.6 |
| Matthew Emerson | Family First | 964 | 2.5 | +2.5 |
| Kathryn Breakwell | Democratic Labour | 767 | 2.0 | -1.2 |
| Josh Segrave | Animal Justice | 730 | 1.9 | +1.9 |
| Patricia Wicks | Derryn Hinch’s Justice | 709 | 1.8 | +1.8 |
| Mark Strother | Freedom Party | 663 | 1.7 | +1.7 |
| Trevor Collins | Transport Matters | 360 | 0.9 | +0.9 |
| Prashant Tandon | New Democrats | 319 | 0.8 | +0.8 |
| Karen Hogan | Health Australia | 260 | 0.7 | +0.7 |
| Patrizia Barcatta | Independent | 213 | 0.6 | +0.6 |
| Heni Kwan | Independent | 45 | 0.1 | +0.1 |
| Informal | 4,156 | 9.7 |
2022 two-party-preferred result
| Candidate | Party | Votes | % | Swing |
| Tim Pallas | Labor | 23,517 | 60.9 | -2.4 |
| Mia Shaw | Liberal | 15,086 | 39.1 | +2.4 |
Booths in Werribee have been divided into three parts. Most of the electorate lies in a small cluster around Werribee, Wyndham Vale and Hoppers Crossing. Polling places in this area have been divided into Werribee North and Werribee South. The small number of polling places outside this area have been grouped as “Outer”.
Labor won a majority of the two-party-preferred vote in all three areas, ranging from 61.3% in Werribee South to 64.7% in Werribee North.
| Voter group | ALP 2PP | Total votes | % of votes |
| Werribee South | 61.3 | 5,374 | 15.7 |
| Outer | 62.3 | 2,560 | 7.5 |
| Werribee North | 64.7 | 2,347 | 6.8 |
| Pre-poll | 58.9 | 20,249 | 57.6 |
| Other votes | 63.6 | 4,371 | 12.5 |
Election results in Werribee at the 2022 Victorian state election
Toggle between two-party-preferred votes and primary votes for Labor and the Liberal Party.
Slightly bad news for Labor here, they drew 11 on the ballot (out of 12) while the Libs drew the 2nd spot.
So Labor won’t benefit from the donkey vote either.
Presumably the Kodei Mulcahy who is running as an independent is the same person described by some media organisations as ‘celebrity pest’ and ‘celebrity stalker’. This might add some colour and movement to the campaign.
Willing to tip the Liberals here, and I don’t think they’re out of the contest in Prahran either
Given this threat of realignment in working-class outer suburbs, is it time for Labor to pivot back towards its base in the North and West?
The proposed SRL East has been a political masterstroke over the last two elections by drawing the Eastern Suburbs into the Labor fold and freezing the Coalition out. However, with an increasing perception of budget issues perhaps it’s time to pause the project and focus on more affordable infrastructure projects in the West:
– Airport Rail (would help to secure Niddrie and Sunbury)
– Melton Electrification (Melton, maybe also Eureka and Ripon)
– Wyndham Vale Electrification (Point Cook and Werribee, as well as Bellarine and South Barwon)
Labor can afford to lose all but 6 seats in the South and East (Albert Park/Carrum/Clarinda/Dandenong/Mulgrave/Oakleigh) and still form a minority government with the Greens, although there’s many other seats here that could be sandbagged.
The goverment has generally won kudos for its infrastructure projects, but it needs to challenge the perception that it is bankrupting the state. Focusing on smaller, cheaper projects might help them to do so, while winning over areas that have been continually neglected.
It’ll also be interesting to see if there’s an electoral payoff in the areas along the Metro Tunnel lines (Sunbury/Cranbourne/Pakenham) once it is complete.
@Angas Metro 2 would significantly increase the speed and frequency of trains to Werribee. The Greens at least have been pushing for that as a priority over SRL (and it was in the PTV plan before it). That plan also included linking the Werribee line to Wyndham Vale station with a stop at Black Forest Road. Labor should consider dusting those off