Cause of by-election
Sitting Labor MP Tim Pallas retired as Treasurer of Victoria and Member for Werribee in December 2024.
Margin – ALP 10.9%
Incumbent MP
Tim Pallas, since 2014. Previously member for Tarneit, 2006-2014.
Geography
Western Victoria. Werribee covers the suburbs of Werribee, Werribee South and Wyndham Vale, and areas to the west of Werribee. The entire electorate lies in Wyndham City.
Werribee previously existed as an electorate from 1976 to 2002.
Werribee was won in 1976 by Liberal candidate Neville Hudson, but he lost in 1979 to the ALP’s Ken Coghill.
Coghill held Werribee from 1979 to 1996, and served as Speaker of the Legislative Assembly from 1988 to 1992.
Labor’s Mary Gillett won Werribee in 1996, and was re-elected in 1999.
In 2002, Werribee was replaced by Tarneit, and Gillett was re-elected in the newly named seat.
Tarneit was won in 2006 by Labor candidate Tim Pallas, and he was re-elected in 2010.
Werribee was restored in 2014, and Pallas shifted to the restored seat, winning re-election comfortably. Pallas was re-elected in 2018 and 2022. Pallas served as Treasurer from Labor’s return to power in 2014 until his retirement at the end of 2024.
Assessment
Werribee is a reasonably safe Labor seat but if the party is doing quite badly it’s the kind of seat that could fall at a by-election.
| Candidate | Party | Votes | % | Swing |
| Tim Pallas | Labor | 17,512 | 45.4 | -0.6 |
| Mia Shaw | Liberal | 9,779 | 25.3 | +8.7 |
| Jack Boddeke | Greens | 2,613 | 6.8 | +0.3 |
| Paul Hopper | Independent | 2,278 | 5.9 | +5.9 |
| Sue Munro | Victorian Socialists | 1,391 | 3.6 | +3.6 |
| Matthew Emerson | Family First | 964 | 2.5 | +2.5 |
| Kathryn Breakwell | Democratic Labour | 767 | 2.0 | -1.2 |
| Josh Segrave | Animal Justice | 730 | 1.9 | +1.9 |
| Patricia Wicks | Derryn Hinch’s Justice | 709 | 1.8 | +1.8 |
| Mark Strother | Freedom Party | 663 | 1.7 | +1.7 |
| Trevor Collins | Transport Matters | 360 | 0.9 | +0.9 |
| Prashant Tandon | New Democrats | 319 | 0.8 | +0.8 |
| Karen Hogan | Health Australia | 260 | 0.7 | +0.7 |
| Patrizia Barcatta | Independent | 213 | 0.6 | +0.6 |
| Heni Kwan | Independent | 45 | 0.1 | +0.1 |
| Informal | 4,156 | 9.7 |
2022 two-party-preferred result
| Candidate | Party | Votes | % | Swing |
| Tim Pallas | Labor | 23,517 | 60.9 | -2.4 |
| Mia Shaw | Liberal | 15,086 | 39.1 | +2.4 |
Booths in Werribee have been divided into three parts. Most of the electorate lies in a small cluster around Werribee, Wyndham Vale and Hoppers Crossing. Polling places in this area have been divided into Werribee North and Werribee South. The small number of polling places outside this area have been grouped as “Outer”.
Labor won a majority of the two-party-preferred vote in all three areas, ranging from 61.3% in Werribee South to 64.7% in Werribee North.
| Voter group | ALP 2PP | Total votes | % of votes |
| Werribee South | 61.3 | 5,374 | 15.7 |
| Outer | 62.3 | 2,560 | 7.5 |
| Werribee North | 64.7 | 2,347 | 6.8 |
| Pre-poll | 58.9 | 20,249 | 57.6 |
| Other votes | 63.6 | 4,371 | 12.5 |
Election results in Werribee at the 2022 Victorian state election
Toggle between two-party-preferred votes and primary votes for Labor and the Liberal Party.
I seem to remember that this was one of the electorates that the liberals threw a lot of money at and it barely moved. I’m confused I thought there was a swing to Labor here in ttp or maybe I was thinking about another Labor seat out this side of the Yarra.
@ SpaceFish
Yes Liberals campaigned hard here and did have a good candidate. What happend is in 2018 an independent made the 2CP but in 2022 the Libs did. The Libs did get a primary vote increase but Labor held steady this led to a notional TPP swing from 2018 to 2022 to Labor probably due to a preference flows more than anything.
Yep correct. Labor’s primary vote was steady (down -0.6%) but the 2PP increased from 9.1% to 10.9%.
I think this is the sort of seat that will see a pretty big swing to the Liberals. 11% is probably a bit too much of an ask but they could definitely cut that margin to under 5% and if they do – particularly if Pesutto gets replaced prior to the byelection – it will give them a lot of confidence to gain seats like Melton, Sunbury, Point Cook and Yan Yean and probably embolden those who believe the Liberal Party’s future is in the outer suburbs. Especially if the Liberals do better here than they do in Prahran (which I fully expect they will).
@Nimalan, Tim Pallas underperformed in 2018 because to the State Government proposing a Youth Detention Centre nearby which had opposition to residents leading to the proposed centre to move further away.
@ Marh
Fair point. Werribee got a lot of focus in 2022 state election
I wonder if Joe Garra ran here like he did in 2018 (He ran in Point Cook in 2022)?
Could be Joe Garra or maybe Paul Hopper, local businessman whose family are well known and have a nearby suburb named after them.
im saying labor retain. 4-5% margin