ALP 2.4%
Incumbent MP
Jane Kelsbie, since 2021.
- Geography
- Redistribution
- History
- Candidate summary
- Assessment
- 2021 results
- Booth breakdown
- Results maps
Geography
Warren-Blackwood covers a large expanse of south-western Western Australia, stretching from Margaret River to Denmark. Warren-Blackwood covers the Nannup, Bridgetown-Greenbushes, Boyup Brook, Manjimup, Augusta-Margaret River and Denmark council areas.
Redistribution
Warren-Blackwood lost the Plantagenet council area to Albany and lost the remainder of the Donnybrook-Balingup council area to Collie-Preston. It gained the remainder of the Augusta-Margaret River council area from Vasse. These changes increased the Labor margin from 1.3% to 2.4%.
History
The current seat of Warren-Blackwood was effectively created in 2008 following the passage of one-vote-one-value laws that reduced the number of electorates in regional Western Australia. In 2008, the Liberal-held seat of Warren-Blackwood and the Nationals-held seat of Stirling were merged as Blackwood-Stirling, which was renamed to Warren-Blackwood in 2013.
The original Warren-Blackwood was first created as the seat of Warren in 1950. The seat was held by a succession of Labor MPs from 1950 until 1989, when it was won by Liberal candidate Paul Omodei.
Omodei held his seat throughout the 1990s, serving as a minister in the Court government. The seat was renamed Warren-Blackwood in 1996.
Omodei became deputy leader of the Liberal Party following the 2005 election, and then became leader in 2006. He only lasted as leader until 2007, stepping down without facing an election. When Warren-Blackwood was merged with a neighbouring Nationals-held seat, Omodei planned to move to a winnable seat representing the South West in the upper house, but he was demoted to the unwinnable fourth position, which led to him resigning from the Liberal Party in 2008.
The seat of Stirling was held by the Country Party and National Party for its entire history, since its creation in 1950. The fifth MP to win the seat was Terry Redman, who was elected in 2005 for the Nationals.
Redman shifted to the new seat of Blackwood-Stirling in 2008, and joined the ministry of the new government. In 2013, he was re-elected in the renamed seat of Warren-Blackwood. Redman was elected leader of the Nationals at the end of 2013, and stepped down from the leadership in August 2016. Redman was re-elected in Warren-Blackwood in 2017.
Redman was defeated for re-election in 2021 by Labor candidate Jane Kelsbie. Warren-Blackwood was close to the high tide mark for Labor’s enormous landslide.
- Wade de Campo (Liberal)
- Bevan Eatts (Nationals)
- Jane Kelsbie (Labor)
- Julie Marsh (Greens)
- Aaron Peet (Legalise Cannabis)
Assessment
If there is any kind of recovery for the conservative parties, you would expect the Nationals to win back this seat.
| Candidate | Party | Votes | % | Swing | Redist |
| Jane Kelsbie | Labor | 8,197 | 32.6 | +11.7 | 32.2 |
| Terry Redman | Nationals | 8,219 | 32.6 | -3.6 | 29.4 |
| Jeff Pow | Greens | 3,362 | 13.4 | -1.2 | 14.9 |
| Marie O’Dea | Liberal | 2,513 | 10.0 | -5.8 | 12.1 |
| Paul Da Silva | Shooters, Fishers & Farmers | 1,048 | 4.2 | -1.5 | 3.9 |
| Nick Lethbridge | Legalise Cannabis | 588 | 2.3 | +2.3 | 2.5 |
| Helen Allan | No Mandatory Vaccination | 526 | 2.1 | +2.1 | 2.3 |
| Steven Regterschot | One Nation | 419 | 1.7 | -5.3 | 1.5 |
| Peter Strachan | Sustainable Australia | 309 | 1.2 | +1.2 | 1.2 |
| Informal | 994 | 3.8 |
2021 two-party-preferred result
| Candidate | Party | Votes | % | Swing | Redist |
| Jane Kelsbie | Labor | 12,903 | 51.3 | +14.1 | 52.4 |
| Terry Redman | Nationals | 12,266 | 48.7 | -14.1 | 47.6 |
Booths have been divided into five parts. Polling places in the Augusta-Margaret River and Denmark council areas have been each grouped together. Those in the Manjimup council area have been grouped as “Central”, with the remainder grouped as “North”.
Labor won the two-party-preferred vote in Augusta-Margaret River (55.5%) and Denmark (52.5%) while the Nationals won in the north (53.8%) and centre (60.1%).
The Greens came third, with a primary vote ranging from 9.1% in the centre to 19.5% in Augusta-Margaret River.
| Voter group | GRN prim | ALP 2PP | Total votes | % of votes |
| Augusta-Margaret River | 19.5 | 55.5 | 3,707 | 15.7 |
| North | 10.6 | 46.2 | 2,764 | 11.7 |
| Denmark | 19.0 | 52.5 | 2,538 | 10.7 |
| Central | 9.1 | 39.9 | 1,931 | 8.2 |
| Pre-poll | 15.3 | 57.2 | 8,085 | 34.2 |
| Other votes | 13.5 | 50.4 | 4,619 | 19.5 |
Election results in Warren-Blackwood at the 2021 WA state election
Toggle between two-party-preferred votes and primary votes for Labor, the Nationals, the Greens and the Liberal Party.
Libs would be silly not to contest this as this is near the seat of Vasse, any regional boost should help them here.
@Daniel T they might let the Nationals contest this one. When both Coalition parties contest it isn’t a good idea because it often splits the primary vote and usually only one gets up on preferences. An exception I can think of was in 2023 in Port Macquarie when the Liberals won it easily but the Nationals finished second (the Nationals can’t and won’t run in Port in 2027, the Liberals will run instead), but that’s a seat that wouldn’t fall to Labor ever, not even in a McGowan-style landslide (Labor has never won a federal or state seat that includes Port Macquarie and the surrounding towns, so it’s as blue-ribbon as northeastern Sydney pre-teals).
@np they aren’t a coalition in wa and they frequently contest against each other even with a sitting member
Portal, who says Leslie will run again? Given her age. I suspect she will retire and then both parties will run again.
@NetherPoral in WA the Nationals and the Liberals are not in a coalition. The liberals contest every seat in WA, and the Nationals contest every regional seat and some metro seats. As such there will be lots of ALP vs LIB vs NAT contests.
The result here was a surprise
@Daniel T Leslie Williams is only 64. Plenty of older MPs. Even then though I predict they’ll try to avoid the same thing even though Labor did so badly it was Liberal vs National in Port Macquarie anyway.
@Mick indeed Warren-Blackwood was perhaps the biggest shock win in 2021.
The fed figures mapped onto here are very interesting
TPP:
ALP: 50.3
LIB: 49.7
So it might be better for Labor than it looks on paper. Maybe Terry Redman had a big personal vote? The primary result here was also very interesting
LIB: 37.8
ALP: 23.8
GRN: 20.3
OTH: 18.1
I tried working out a 3CP here and and it was less than a percent different between the Greens and Labor here. This contains a lot of the best Greens areas in regional WA. It’s almost a less extreme version of Byron.
Labor are doomed here. almost every big labor controversy of the term applies to this seat. The end of native logging, heritage laws, live export ban. I half expect the greens to get to 2CP purely off of labor vote collapse.
easy NAT gain