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Libs would be silly not to contest this as this is near the seat of Vasse, any regional boost should help them here.
@Daniel T they might let the Nationals contest this one. When both Coalition parties contest it isn’t a good idea because it often splits the primary vote and usually only one gets up on preferences. An exception I can think of was in 2023 in Port Macquarie when the Liberals won it easily but the Nationals finished second (the Nationals can’t and won’t run in Port in 2027, the Liberals will run instead), but that’s a seat that wouldn’t fall to Labor ever, not even in a McGowan-style landslide (Labor has never won a federal or state seat that includes Port Macquarie and the surrounding towns, so it’s as blue-ribbon as northeastern Sydney pre-teals).
@np they aren’t a coalition in wa and they frequently contest against each other even with a sitting member
Portal, who says Leslie will run again? Given her age. I suspect she will retire and then both parties will run again.
@NetherPoral in WA the Nationals and the Liberals are not in a coalition. The liberals contest every seat in WA, and the Nationals contest every regional seat and some metro seats. As such there will be lots of ALP vs LIB vs NAT contests.
The result here was a surprise
@Daniel T Leslie Williams is only 64. Plenty of older MPs. Even then though I predict they’ll try to avoid the same thing even though Labor did so badly it was Liberal vs National in Port Macquarie anyway.
@Mick indeed Warren-Blackwood was perhaps the biggest shock win in 2021.
The fed figures mapped onto here are very interesting
TPP:
ALP: 50.3
LIB: 49.7
So it might be better for Labor than it looks on paper. Maybe Terry Redman had a big personal vote? The primary result here was also very interesting
LIB: 37.8
ALP: 23.8
GRN: 20.3
OTH: 18.1
I tried working out a 3CP here and and it was less than a percent different between the Greens and Labor here. This contains a lot of the best Greens areas in regional WA. It’s almost a less extreme version of Byron.
Labor are doomed here. almost every big labor controversy of the term applies to this seat. The end of native logging, heritage laws, live export ban. I half expect the greens to get to 2CP purely off of labor vote collapse.