ALP 27.4%
Incumbent MP
Jessica Shaw, since 2017.
- Geography
- Redistribution
- History
- Candidate summary
- Assessment
- 2021 results
- Booth breakdown
- Results maps
Geography
Outer North-West of Perth. Swan Hills covers the north of the Swan council area, including Ellenbrook, Aveley, Gidgegannup and Belhus.
Redistribution
Swan Hills lost its south-eastern end including Chidlow, Mount Helena, The Lakes and Wooroloo to Kalamunda, lost the remainder of Ellenbrook from West Swan and gained Aveley and Belhus from West Swan.
History
Swan Hills has existed since 1989, and in that time has always been won by the party that forms government.
The seat was first won in 1989 by Labor MP Gavan Troy, who had held Mundaring since 1983. He retired in 1993 and was succeeded by Liberal candidate June van der Klashorst.
Van der Klashorst was re-elected in 1996 on improved boundaries. In 2001, she lost with a shock 11.7% swing to the Labor candidate Jaye Radisich.
Radisich retired in 2008, and the ALP ran sitting MLC Graham Giffard. He lost to the Liberal Party’s Frank Alban. Alban was re-elected in 2013.
Alban lost Swan Hills in 2017 to Labor’s Jessica Shaw, and Shaw won a second term in 2021.
Candidates
Sitting Labor MP Jessica Shaw is not running for re-election.
Assessment
Swan Hills is a reasonably safe Labor seat, even in more normal times. This seat wouldn’t be on any Liberal target list.
| Candidate | Party | Votes | % | Swing | Redist |
| Jessica Shaw | Labor | 17,255 | 69.8 | +20.4 | 70.9 |
| Rod Henderson | Liberal | 4,571 | 18.5 | -9.6 | 18.3 |
| Melanye Wawrik | Greens | 1,189 | 4.8 | -2.7 | 4.0 |
| Timothy Bunton | No Mandatory Vaccination | 782 | 3.2 | +3.2 | 2.9 |
| Magdeleen Strauss | Australian Christians | 675 | 2.7 | +2.5 | 2.7 |
| Asif Ali | WAxit | 256 | 1.0 | -0.6 | 1.2 |
| Informal | 1,245 | 4.8 |
2021 two-party-preferred result
| Candidate | Party | Votes | % | Swing | Redist |
| Jessica Shaw | Labor | 19,069 | 77.1 | +15.0 | 77.4 |
| Rod Henderson | Liberal | 5,655 | 22.9 | -15.0 | 22.6 |
Polling places have been split into three parts: east, north-west and south-east.
Labor’s two-party-preferred vote ranged from 71.3% in the north-west to 84.6% in the east.
| Voter group | ALP 2PP % | Total votes | % of votes |
| South-East | 72.4 | 3,131 | 13.3 |
| East | 84.6 | 2,935 | 12.4 |
| North-West | 71.3 | 2,522 | 10.7 |
| Pre-poll | 79.1 | 8,816 | 37.4 |
| Other votes | 76.6 | 6,189 | 26.2 |
Election results in Swan Hills at the 2021 WA state election
Toggle between two-party-preferred votes and primary votes for Labor, the Liberal Party and the Greens.
My prediction: Labor hold, the parts of Ellenbrook/Aveley in this seat will keep it red this time, but I expect 2029 to be a hot contest here.