ALP 31.6%
Incumbent MP
Paul Papalia, member for Warnbro since 2008. Previously member for Peel 2007-2008.
- Geography
- Redistribution
- History
- Candidate summary
- Assessment
- 2021 results
- Booth breakdown
- Results maps
Geography
Southern fringe of Perth metropolitan region. Secret Harbour covers coastal suburbs at the southern end of Rockingham council area, including Singleton, Secret Harbour, Karnup and Port Kennedy. It also covers the northern end of the Mandurah council area, including Lakelands and Madora Bay.
Redistribution
Secret Harbour is a new name for the seat of Warnbro. The seat shifted south, gaining Lakelands and Madora Bay from Mandurah, and lost Warnbro and the remainder of Baldivis to the seat of Baldivis.
History
The seat of Secret Harbour is a replacement for Warnbro, which was newly created at the 2008 redistribution, but was a smaller version of the former seat of Peel. Peel was held by Labor continuously from its creation in 1989 until its abolition.
Norm Malborough had been first elected in Cockburn in 1986, and moved to Peel in 1989. He held the seat until his resignation under a cloud of scandal in 2006.
In early 2007, the by-election was won by Labor candidate Paul Papalia.
Papalia won the new seat of Warnbro in 2008, and has been re-elected three times.
Assessment
There are only eight other Labor seats held by greater margins than Secret Harbour. Labor will have no trouble retaining this seat.
| Candidate | Party | Votes | % | Swing | Redist |
| Paul Papalia | Labor | 19,300 | 76.9 | +16.2 | 75.3 |
| Mark Jones | Liberal | 3,324 | 13.2 | -2.7 | 15.1 |
| Robert Delves | Greens | 1,016 | 4.0 | -2.9 | 3.6 |
| Liam Hall | One Nation | 616 | 2.5 | -9.5 | 2.1 |
| Brandon Suchalla-Young | No Mandatory Vaccination | 463 | 1.8 | +1.8 | 1.8 |
| Bob Velev | WAxit | 218 | 0.9 | -0.1 | 0.8 |
| Cameron McMaster | Liberal Democrats | 171 | 0.7 | +0.7 | 0.5 |
| Others | 0.8 | ||||
| Informal | 930 | 3.6 |
2021 two-party-preferred result
| Candidate | Party | Votes | % | Swing | Redist |
| Paul Papalia | Labor | 20,945 | 83.4 | +9.7 | 81.6 |
| Mark Jones | Liberal | 4,157 | 16.6 | -9.7 | 18.4 |
Polling places have been split into three parts: central, north and south.
Labor’s two-party-preferred vote ranged from 75.6% in the south to 83.5% in the north.
| Voter group | ALP 2PP % | Total votes | % of votes |
| Central | 81.0 | 4,076 | 17.0 |
| South | 75.6 | 2,125 | 8.9 |
| North | 83.5 | 1,889 | 7.9 |
| Pre-poll | 82.9 | 11,292 | 47.2 |
| Other votes | 80.6 | 4,535 | 19.0 |
Election results in Secret Harbour at the 2021 WA state election
Toggle between two-party-preferred votes and primary votes for Labor, the Liberal Party and the Greens.
Fun fact: after this election, Paul Papalia will be the longest-serving lower house MP, and the only one who was around for the Carpenter government. Roger Cook, Rita Saffioti (both 2008) and Tony Buti (2010 by-election) will be the only others who were there for the first term of the Barnett govt.
There’s only another four who were there for the second term of Barnett (Dave Kelly, Shane Love, Simone McGurk and Libby Mettam). Successive landslides in opposite directions really churned through MPs. Having 51 MPs out of 59 with tenure of two terms or less must be pretty unusual historically.
My prediction: Labor hold, with a reduced margin, on these boundaries, this could go Liberal in a landslide win for them.