ALP 9.8%
Incumbent MP
Stuart Aubrey, since 2021.
- Geography
- Redistribution
- History
- Candidate summary
- Assessment
- 2021 results
- Booth breakdown
- Results maps
Geography
Northern Perth. Scarborough covers the suburbs of Scarborough, Doubleview, Karrinyup, Trigg and parts of Innaloo, near the coast in the inner north of Perth. The entire seat is contained in the City of Stirling.
Redistribution
Changes were made to the northern and southern boundaries of Scarborough. Scarborough gained Karrinyup from Carine, and losing the remainder of North Beach and part of Gwelup to Carine. Scarborough also lost Osborne Park and part of Innaloo to Churchlands, and gained the remainder of Doubleview from Churchlands.
History
Scarborough was created in its current form at the 2008 election. A seat named Scarborough previously existed as a marginal seat from 1974 to 1996.
The previous seat was held by the Liberals from 1974 to 1983, then the ALP from 1983 to 1989, and again by the Liberal Party from 1989 to 1996.
The new seat was created with a notional Liberal margin of 2.6%. Liberal candidate Liza Harvey was elected with a 2.6% swing. Harvey was elevated to the ministry in 2012. She was re-elected in 2013, and became deputy premier in February 2016.
Harvey was re-elected in Scarborough in 2017, but her party was tipped out of office. She served as Liberal leader from June 2019 to November 2020.
Harvey lost her seat in 2021 to Labor candidate Stuart Aubrey.
Assessment
If the Liberal Party experiences any kind of return to normality, they should win here.
| Candidate | Party | Votes | % | Swing | Redist |
| Stuart Aubrey | Labor | 12,750 | 50.3 | +20.7 | 49.4 |
| Liza Harvey | Liberal | 8,808 | 34.7 | -13.0 | 35.4 |
| SP Becker | Greens | 2,331 | 9.2 | -4.8 | 9.7 |
| Vanya Markovina | No Mandatory Vaccination | 498 | 2.0 | +2.0 | 2.1 |
| Dave Vos | Independent | 337 | 1.3 | +1.3 | 1.1 |
| Troy Coward | Western Australia Party | 300 | 1.2 | FALSE | 1.0 |
| Daniel Bridgewater | Liberals for Climate | 213 | 0.8 | +0.8 | 0.6 |
| Johnny Boccardi | WAxit | 125 | 0.5 | -0.9 | 0.6 |
| Others | 0.1 | ||||
| Informal | 771 | 3.0 |
2021 two-party-preferred result
| Candidate | Party | Votes | % | Swing | Redist |
| Stuart Aubrey | Labor | 15,315 | 60.4 | +16.1 | 59.8 |
| Liza Harvey | Liberal | 10,039 | 39.6 | -16.1 | 40.2 |
Polling places have been split into three parts: east, north-west and south-west.
Labor’s two-party-preferred vote ranged from 57.5% in the north-west to 62.2% in the east.
The Greens came third, with a primary vote ranging from 9.9% in the east to 12.3% in the south-west.
| Voter group | GRN prim % | ALP 2PP % | Total votes | % of votes |
| North-West | 11.7 | 57.5 | 4,906 | 19.6 |
| South-West | 12.3 | 61.4 | 3,111 | 12.4 |
| East | 9.9 | 62.2 | 3,018 | 12.0 |
| Pre-poll | 7.5 | 60.0 | 8,023 | 32.0 |
| Other votes | 9.4 | 59.3 | 6,033 | 24.0 |
Election results in Scarborough at the 2021 WA state election
Toggle between two-party-preferred votes and primary votes for Labor, the Liberal Party and the Greens.
another LIB gain
My prediction: Labor has incumbency here now, and has won this area in the past, the old seat of Innaloo was Labor in the Gallop/Carpenter years.
With the expected swing in the polls, plus the seat now containing Karrinyup (the only booth in this seat where the Liberals outpolled Labor on first preferences), I’d tip a Liberal gain here.
This is my seat and has been on/off for years, Harvey had a personal vote which slightly inflated the previous Liberal margin, Aubrey now has one himself and he’s a good fit for the electorate, he’s almost a Bell Tower Times personification of the electorate itself. The Liberals are trying to emulate his campaign with #VoteDamo, their own surf lifesaver, but I can tell you first hand he’s not taken to be as genuine as Aubrey.
There’s more renters, young families and tradespeople here compared to the seats immediately North & South, concentrated between Hale Road and Karrinyup Road (The bulk of said area is in this seat). The sort of campaign that the Liberals are running in Churchlands and Carine (the anti-development stuff mainly) isn’t going to stick as well here.
I think this is a Labor hold, their support will remain strong enough south of Karrinyup Road to keep it in their column.
Can’t say I’m convinced that the Liberals won’t win this. The booth that they’ve added from Carine was the most favourable to them at the last election. The statewide swing is likely to bring the 2PP back to something like the 2017 election. Even if Stuart Aubrey is quite popular, the Liberals would have to be doing very badly to not take this seat in what should be a 15%+ swing election.
I think labor could well hold here, it’s definitely more favourable territory for them than surrounding seats, currently the swing is looking like 12-13% state with an expectation it will be stronger in outer suburbs and regions, and weaker inner city. Will be interesting to watch
Think th8s like south Perth is possible alp.
Hold
Well done to Stuart Aubrey – he’s clearly a good fit for this seat.
Doubt it will hold up next time