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Without the Labor vote in Bassendean this should be marginal in 2025 and competitive for the libs in 2028 so will be an obvious target
@John the problem is (and this is the same for the federal seat of Perth and the federal and state seats of Adelaide) the Greens vote is increasing so it’s becoming like Macnamara where the Liberals usually finish first but Labor always manages to win on Greens preferences. In 2016 and 2019, the Liberals finished first in the federal seat of Perth but Labor won it on Greens preferences (I think it was around 54% Labor TPP on both occasions).
@np sry this was meant for the federal seat thread.
can general chat thread for WA be opened
Fed figures -> state seat of Perth
LIB: 25.1
ALP: 38
GRN: 27.4
OTH: 9.5
2nd strongest area for the Greens in WA. Greens could finish 2nd here but Labor should still win fairly easily.
I wonder if the Liberals would preference the Greens here, simply to make life more difficult for Labor if the Liberals finished third.
That 2021 Mark McGowan election was a huge outlier, unlikely to repeat ever again. I expect Labor’s vote to drop to around 40% with Greens and Libs fighting for second with both on somewhere around 25-30%
@Drake often the Liberals finish first though and Labor wins on Greens preferences.
Primary votes in Perth (state seat) since 1993:
1993: LIB 42.3%, ALP 39.3%, GRN 7.2%
1996: ALP 47.0%, LIB 37.1%, GRN 11.4%
2001: ALP 45.6%, LIB 32.1%, GRN 11.0%
2005: ALP 49.1%, LIB 33.0%, GRN 12.9%
2008: ALP 41.0%, LIB 36.7%, GRN 19.3%
2013: LIB 48.6%, ALP 36.1%, GRN 12.8%
2017: ALP 46.5%, LIB 33.8%, GRN 14.4%
2021: ALP 63.5%, LIB 18.0%, GRN 16.0%
ALP TPP in Perth (state seat) since 1993:
1993: 50.3% (ALP hold)
1996: 57.9% (ALP hold)
2001: 61.3% (ALP hold)
2005: 62.0% (ALP hold)
2008: 57.8% (ALP hold)
2013: 47.4% (LIB gain)
2017: 61.8% (ALP gain)
2021: 79.3% (ALP hold)
Note that most of those years were good years for WA Labor. Federally the Liberals finished first in the federal seat of Perth in both 2016 and 2019.
John Carey seems to be a popular local member here, expect him to hold Perth comfortably. Don’t think same can be said for Patrick Gorman in the federal seat of Perth.
Just drove past Hyde Park and there seemed to be around 80-100 Green volunteers preparing for a Doorknock.
@Malcolm, I agree. John Carey seems to be a lot more popular than Patrick Gorman.