ALP 3.2%
Incumbent MP
Katrina Stratton, since 2021.
- Geography
- Redistribution
- History
- Candidate summary
- Assessment
- 2021 results
- Booth breakdown
- Results maps
Geography
Inner north of Perth. Nedlands covers the suburbs of Dalkeith, Crawley, Nedlands, Shenton Park, Subiaco, Jolimont and Daglish. Nedlands covers the Subiaco council area, most of the Nedlands council area and small parts of neighbouring councils.
Redistribution
Nedlands gained a very small area close to the Perth CBD from the seat of Perth.
History
Nedlands has existed since 1930, and in that time the seat has nearly always been held by Liberals, including two premiers.
Nedlands was first won in 1930 by Nationalist candidate Norbert Keenan. Keenan had previously sat in the Assembly from 1905 to 1911, and served as Attorney-General from 1906 to 1909. Keenan became a minister in the Nationalist government. The Nationalists were badly defeated in 1933, and Keenan became Nationalist leader as the junior partner in a coalition government with the Country Party.
Keenan eventually joined the new Liberal Party, and held the seat until his defeat in 1950 by independent Liberal David Grayden.
Grayden held the seat for one term, losing in 1953 to Liberal candidate Charles Court. Court held Nedlands for 29 years. He served as a minister in the Brand government in the 1960s and became Liberal leader in 1972, leading the party back into power in 1974. He served as premier until his retirement in 1982.
The 1982 Nedlands by-election was won by Richard Court, son of the former member. Court became Liberal leader in 1992, and led the party to power in 1993. Court served as premier for two terms until his government’s defeat in 2001. He resigned from the leadership and as member for Nedlands soon after.
Liberal candidate Sue Walker won the 2001 Nedlands by-election. Walker was re-elected in 2005. She resigned from the Liberal Party in 2008 to contest Nedlands as an independent, but was defeated by Liberal candidate Bill Marmion. Marmion was re-elected in 2013 and 2017.
Marmion lost in the landslide of 2021, losing by one of the smallest margins of all the Liberal MPs who lost their seats.
Candidates
Sitting Labor MP Katrina Stratton is running for the Legislative Council.
- Rosemarie de Vries (Independent)
- Viv Glance (Greens)
- Jonathan Hippisley (Independent)
- Jonathan Huston (Liberal)
- James McLagan (Nationals)
- Mary Monkhouse (Labor)
Assessment
Nedlands is Labor’s third most marginal seat. If there is any reversion to normality you’d expect the Liberal Party to regain this seat.
| Candidate | Party | Votes | % | Swing | Redist |
| Katrina Stratton | Labor | 9,327 | 35.7 | +9.1 | 36.1 |
| Bill Marmion | Liberal | 9,160 | 35.0 | -16.6 | 34.8 |
| Tamara Alderdice | Greens | 3,549 | 13.6 | -1.9 | 13.6 |
| Fiona Argyle | Independent | 2,883 | 11.0 | +11.0 | 10.9 |
| Andrew Mangano | Independent | 632 | 2.4 | +2.4 | 2.4 |
| Vivien Forrest | No Mandatory Vaccination | 412 | 1.6 | +1.6 | 1.6 |
| Dennis Jennings | WAxit | 179 | 0.7 | -0.7 | 0.7 |
| Informal | 648 | 2.4 |
2021 two-party-preferred result
| Candidate | Party | Votes | % | Swing | Redist |
| Katrina Stratton | Labor | 13,805 | 52.8 | +10.8 | 53.2 |
| Bill Marmion | Liberal | 12,330 | 47.2 | -10.8 | 46.8 |
Polling places have been split into three parts: central, north and south.
Labor’s won the two-party-preferred vote with 57% in the centre and 60% in the north. The Liberal Party polled 57.2% in the south.
The Greens came third, with a primary vote ranging from 11.3% in the south to 19.2% in the centre.
| Voter group | GRN prim % | ALP 2PP % | Total votes | % of votes |
| South | 11.3 | 42.8 | 4,051 | 15.3 |
| North | 18.2 | 60.0 | 3,462 | 13.0 |
| Central | 19.2 | 57.0 | 1,833 | 6.9 |
| Pre-poll | 11.4 | 53.7 | 10,457 | 39.4 |
| Other votes | 14.5 | 54.1 | 6,742 | 25.4 |
Election results in Nedlands at the 2021 WA state election
Toggle between two-party-preferred votes and primary votes for Labor, the Liberal Party, the Greens and independent candidates.
I wouldn’t suprise me if an Independent wins or a complex primary vote occurs especially Liberals preselect a conservative male candidate.
It voted largely YES in October + has alot of wealthy small l liberal voters that turned towards Kate Chaney more than any part of the Curtin electorate.
A strong Greens candidate (strong Upper House vote) could also do well.
Based on that CG Labor could hang on here.
Thinking seats should be split into 2021 gains, 2017 gains and pre 2017 – it will be interesting which of the former stay red and which of the latter don’t.
Agree John and CG, many of these affluent seats that were won by Labor in 2021 may well record smaller than average swings. At the same time, some of the regional and outer suburban seats like Murray-Wellington, Kalamunda, Albany and Swan Hills which were gained by Labor in 2017 could see above average swings to the Liberal Party and be lost first.
I actually disagree, i dont think it is in the long term interest for Labor to waste resources in holding these super-wealthy electorates. Kate Chaney has criticized WA Labor for its proposed Climate change Bill as it does not include a 2030 target and a Teal may run in this seat and Churchlands, Cottsoloe etc to challenge both parties. In Victoria, the Labor party had little interest in holding the seat of Hawthorn and despite a sitting MP was happy to run dead and they were even accused of running a push poll to support Melissa Lowe. If a Teal ran in Nedlands it would take a lot of vote from Labor as the vote for Labor in such seats is soft. On the other hand seats such as Swan Hills is a bellwether and mortgage belt the sort of seat that determines elections. In Albany, a sitting MP can actually build a personal vote and withstand swings as Peter Watson did so it would be better to focus on Albany, Geraldton, Joondalup etc. Also look at the biggest brand equity of this government which is Metronet and the seats that will benefit the most. These include Burns Beach, Wanneroo, Swan Hills, West Swan, Forrestfield, Jandekrot, Darling Range. These are seats that Labor needs to focus on to retain government.
Fair point Nimalan about the affluent seats preferring a teal/independent type candidate rather than Labor.
If the Liberals are still struggling to recover, they could end up in a situation similar to Victoria 2022 where they fail to make much headway in both their traditional grounds and also the swing type outer suburban seats. Like Victoria and Dan Andrews with the SRL and a strong focus on rail infrastructure improvements, the Metronet program developed by McGowan is also one that is seen as a ‘game changer’ and difficult for the opposition to push back against, given that former Liberal Premier Colin Barnett was against rail expansion.
Agree Yoh An
At a state level, voters reward delivery more than anything else. Metronet has been the key selling point of this period of Labour government and will be its legacy when the history books are written it will be train line to Ellenbrook, Yanchep and the level crossing removals (Inner Armadale line) that will be remembered, not the closed borders during the pandemic. This is the same in Victoria where the focus on service delivery is why Labor did very well in the traditional marginal seats. Labor lost elite Hawthorn but picked up middle class Glen Waverley/Bayswater, they lost Nepean with its clifftop mansions and picked up Hastings a more middle class tradie area. As you correctly pointed Colin Barnett did squander the mining boom and did not expand Perth’s rail network adequately unlike the NSW state Libs. The 2001-2008 Labor government on the hand doubled the size of Perth’s metro rail network with the Mandurah line, Thornlie line & Clarkson extention. Furthermore, having a strong Labor brand in the outer suburbs of Perth will assist Labor at a federal level in Pearce & Hasluck as Metronet is partially federally funded as well.
@yoh an the wa liberals aren’t as useless as Vic. They are coming from a clean slate.
It was announced today that Katrina Stratton (the current Labor MP for Nedlands) is planning for a move to the Legislative Council, and not recontesting Nedlands. Not a surprise considering she would have been rolled easily in 2025 by the Liberals or a teal independent.
Liberal gain, new margin: 13%.
I think this is a good strategic move by Labor not to bother with this seat and run dead. Labor did that in Hawthorn in 2022 and was almost outpolled by a Teal despite having a sitting MP. Labor would rather have a Teal challenge Libs in this seat especially as WA in the only state where emissions have risen since 2005. It would be a good idea to do the same in Churchlands and run dead.
There is now a ‘teal’ style independent running here – Rosemarie de Vries a Subiaco Councillor – who appears to be capitalising on a community sentiment of ‘inappropriate development.’
I believe that this will still be a liberal gain in the upcoming state election, but I’d be interested to see which of labor or the independent makes the final 2pp count and how close it is.
Apparently ‘teal’ candidates are also being considered in the neighbouring seats of Churchlands and Cottesloe
https://postnewspapers.com.au/
I reckon Nedlands is most likely of the Curtin state seats to go teal. But de Vries isn’t the most well known independent – a Fiona Stanley, Holmes a Court family member or a well known western suburb icon would be more of edge over a Liberal.
Liberal likely but Independent could win.
@CG no teals will be elected in WA.
easy gain for the Libs here the sitting Labor member has even given up by running for the LC