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This seat on the past was a reliable liberal seat. No more…. the liberals need a 17% swing!
Mick, current polling indicates a swing of at least 10% against Labor. As a result, this seat is still considered ‘potentially winnable’ for the Liberals if they nominate a decent candidate and campaign strongly.
Although I do agree that this margin may be too high to overcome in one election cycle, so I see the current Labor MP hanging on to a marginal seat and then lose in the next election cycle (2029)