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Lisa Baker rumoured to be retiring here.
Dan Bull (former Bayswater Mayor) expected to replace her
Source:
https://thewest.com.au/opinion/josh-zimmerman-labor-is-discovering-theres-a-downside-to-electoral-domination-c-12709621
As in most other WA seats, Labor’s ridiculously high primary will likely fall at the next election. Combined with an incumbent retiring, this should make Maylands the second highest target seat for the Greens in this election after Fremantle. It will still almost certainly stay in Labor’s hands because of the size of their 2021 primary, but the Greens should be able to lift their primary into the 20s, giving them a bigger base to fight future elections from.
Dan Bull confirmed as Labor candidate.
Thoughts on this race?
On fed figures, rough calculations
ALP: 41.3
LIB: 23.7
GRN: 22.3
OTH: 12.7
Greens might be able to finish 2nd here
Caroline Perks running again for the Greens. She has previously run as a Perth Federal candidate and Maylands in the State. I think this is one of those seats that isn’t as safe as the margin suggests.
Those areas around Bayswater and the Maylands Peninsula area is trending very green.
A swing of 20% plus against Labor won’t be surprising here considering 2021 was a crazy year unlikely to repeat ever again. The Lib vote will recover somewhat in WA but probably less in Maylands than other areas. I’m fully excepting this to end up Greens v Labor ttp specially considering Greens should/will probably be heavily targeting the areas in the Maylands electorate as part of their federal campaigning.
Greens at 12% in recent state election poll and Labor down 20% from 2021 and Liberal clearly aren’t rushing to find a candidate.
a possible (fall from the sky) Greens gain not a crazy concept if 2025 than 2029.
Given the Greens’ poor performance in Queensland and even the ACT at their most recent elections I doubt the Greens will be any different in WA. As I said before I expect the Greens to go backwards federally, on the Brisbane City Council and in the Northern Territory at their next elections.
Labor hold, with the Liberals in second place. There will obviously be at least a small swing to the Liberals, but I expect it to be less than the swings in the outer suburbs and in traditional Liberal suburbs and much less than the regional swings.
@Nether Portal I think the Greens are refining their pitch after those disappointing results, especially as they gear up for a federal election. The Cook government is definitely not going to do a last minute suite of Green policies to head them off. More broadly Labor has proven that even with an enormous majority they aren’t going to be truly progressive – their theory of change has hit its limits in WA. Liberals will do anything to bring down Labor’s total so I expect a repeat of 2021’s preferences. Probably the best chance in a while for Greens to win seats that they won’t get in 2029.
Interestingly the poll had a 14% 2PP swing against Labor which costs them surprisingly few seats, especially if Labor can survive in some of those 2021 gains through sophomore surges.
Will this be a LIB V GRN seat or a ALP V GRN seat if it the latter then it depends on the Libs giving preferences which i think is close to zero chance.
this will be a alp v lib seat lib primary will rise again as will maybe the greens however the others are mostly right of centre parties and will push lib into 2pp
@Nimalan – definitely ALP vs Green.
Liberals preferencing Greens over Labor is never the likely outcome, but In an election where Liberals will want to look like they’re even remotely close to government, every seat Labor loses is a win (especially a seat like Maylands which isn’t winnable for the Liberals).
Liberals preferenced Greens over Labor in 2021, and the results in Fremantle suggest a good follow rate for HTVs.
@ BNJ
The issue for the Libs is that a Green gaining a seat from Labor does not actually make a Liberal government more likely as it just pushes the State to the left. It is why when the Libs are serious about winning government they actually dont preference the Greens ahead of Labor. It causes massive internal revolt, their media base, donors and membership are furious. It is for the same reason in QLD, Labor never preferences ONP over LNP because it will cause massive revolt among progressive and ethnic voters. In a state where the mining industry is dominant, the Libs will suffer from donations if they preference Greens over Labor. Also the Federal party will not be happy either.
What I’m saying is that Liberals aren’t serious about winning government in WA 2025 (not Fed 2025 IMO but that’s a different discussion), so the consideration is different.
Labor just proved at the QLD election it’s willing to divert perfectly good resources and broader campaign framing to the task of winning seats back from Greens. It’s in the LNP’s interest for WA Labor to be similarly distracted in 2029. Any kind of hung parliament situation also makes it easier for Liberals to come in the election after (Federal 2010-2013).
There are other considerations – for example the Israel lobby who are asking Labor to put the Greens last will be pretty unhappy with the LNP if even they don’t. I’m just saying it can’t be completely ruled out and it has happened before.