ALP 38.1%
Incumbent MP
Roger Cook, since 2008.
- Geography
- Redistribution
- History
- Candidate summary
- Assessment
- 2021 results
- Booth breakdown
- Results maps
Geography
Southern fringe of Perth. This seat covers a majority of the Kwinana council area, as well as a small part of the Rockingham council area. The seat covers the suburbs of Bertram, Hope Valley, Kwinana Beach, Leda, Mandogalup, Medina, Parmelia and parts of Baldivis and Wellard.
Redistribution
Kwinana shifted a long way south, losing Hammond Park, Henderson and Wattleup to Cockburn and Aubin Grove, Anketell and Wandi to Oakford. Kwinana gained the remainder of Leda and part of Wellard from Baldivis.
History
Kwinana was created as a very safe Labor seat in 2008 following the redistribution caused by the introduction of one-vote-one-value reforms.
The Labor candidate, Roger Cook, was challenged by local mayor Carol Adams, running as an independent. Despite the presumed margin, Adams came close to defeating Cook, polling 49.2% of the two-candidate vote. Adams again challenged Cook in 2013, but Cook won with a slightly larger margin, with 52.6% of the vote after preferences.
Cook won by a much larger margin in 2017, and then gained another big swing in 2021, winning over 88% of the two-party-preferred vote.
Cook became deputy leader of the Labor Party in 2008, shortly after winning a seat in parliament for the first time. He thus became deputy premier when Labor won power in 2017.
In 2023, after 15 years as the party’s deputy leader, Cook became leader and Premier following Mark McGowan’s retirement.
Assessment
Kwinana is the safest Labor seat in Western Australia. Cook will have no trouble retaining his seat.
| Candidate | Party | Votes | % | Swing | Redist |
| Roger Cook | Labor | 17,936 | 76.9 | +19.8 | 79.2 |
| Bianca Talbot | Liberal | 2,533 | 10.9 | -8.5 | 7.6 |
| Lauren Rickert | Greens | 1,189 | 5.1 | -2.7 | 5.4 |
| Steven Summerell | One Nation | 699 | 3.0 | -6.2 | 2.7 |
| Connie Portelli | No Mandatory Vaccination | 405 | 1.7 | +1.7 | 1.7 |
| Christopher Vellnagel | Liberal Democrats | 175 | 0.8 | +0.7 | 0.8 |
| Christopher Burnet | WAxit | 208 | 0.9 | -0.6 | 0.7 |
| Venkat Devarapalli | Western Australia Party | 165 | 0.7 | +0.7 | 0.5 |
| Others | 1.3 | ||||
| Informal | 949 | 3.9 |
2021 two-party-preferred result
| Candidate | Party | Votes | % | Swing | Redist |
| Roger Cook | Labor | 19,754 | 84.8 | +14.0 | 88.1 |
| Bianca Talbot | Liberal | 3,550 | 15.2 | -14.0 | 11.9 |
Polling places have been split into three parts: north-east, north-west and south.
Labor’s two-party-preferred vote ranged from 86.1% in the south to 88.5% in the north-east.
| Voter group | ALP 2PP % | Total votes | % of votes |
| North-West | 87.4 | 2,937 | 13.0 |
| North-East | 88.5 | 2,262 | 10.0 |
| South | 86.1 | 2,037 | 9.0 |
| Pre-poll | 89.2 | 9,662 | 42.8 |
| Other votes | 87.0 | 5,699 | 25.2 |
Election results in Kwinana at the 2021 WA state election
Toggle between two-party-preferred votes and primary votes for Labor, the Liberal Party and the Greens.
My prediction: Liberal gain!
I mean… Obvious Labor hold is obvious.