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I reckon a good Independent would have a decent shot here. Voices for Kalamunda or Indi for Munda sounds like a thing.
@CG what makes you think that?
It has the demographics of a wealthy-well educated electorate with a respective Green vote. Alot of issues like anti-Satterly attitude would work well with an Independent.
If not Greens could poll 15% – I expect Libs would pick up Kalamunda although.
This is the seat where it is lining up for a major upset.
Nats to win with 25% of primary vote.
Have very active local candidate and have Mia Davis campaigning hard in the area as well.
Nats to also win:( with 4-6% increases in primary vote from ALP) Mid West, Roe, Central Wheatbelt (still no lib candidate),Warren Blackwood and Geraldton.
Also toss up in Albany and Kalgoorlie (could go NT/Lib/ALP)
Also expect Nats to come 2nd in Pilbara and Collie Preston (still no lib candidate).
So Nats 5- 8 seats.
@nick nat will win midwest geraldton, central wheatbelt, roe and warren blackwood. either libs or nats will likely win kalgoorlie and albany. i expect them to finish second in pilbara but the libs will finish second in collie-preston.
How would the Nats win Kalamunda? It’s not a farming seat, and the Nats have no recent history of even running in, let alone winning seats in the hills. Davies is obviously trying to campaign in all of Bullwinkel, not just the bit she currently represents in state parliament (a quarter of it), but it doesn’t mean she’ll get far.
CG: Liberals for Forests (a proto-teal sorta thing) did well in Darling Range in 2001 (despite the name, it’s basically the current Kalamunda). They also won Alfred Cove and came second in Nedlands. Another few % and the teal breakthrough could’ve happened 20 years earlier than it did.
Can’t see nats winning at state level. And I expect Mia davies to run at least second to Labor federally if not 3rd to them and the libs . Nats running in bullwinkel and splitting the vote could cause coalition to lose the seat. If Mia davies breaks into the 2cp against Labor people in this part of bullwinkel could vote Lib 1 Lab 2. So it will be interesting to see both the lab v lib and lab v nat result.
given the resignation of the member matthew Hughes id say lib gain here