ALP 18.1%
Incumbent MP
Yaz Mubarakai, since 2017.
- Geography
- Redistribution
- History
- Candidate summary
- Assessment
- 2021 results
- Booth breakdown
- Results maps
Geography
South-eastern Perth. Jandakot covers parts of the Cockburn, Melville and Canning council areas, along with small parts of the Armadale and Gosnells council areas. The seat covers the suburbs of Atwell, Aubin Grove, Banjup, Leeming, Murdoch, North Lake and South Lake, and part of Banjup.
Redistribution
Jandakot shifted north-west, losing Forrestdale, Harrisdale and Piara Waters to Oakford, gaining Atwell from Cockburn, gaining part of Banjup from Kwinana, and gaining the remainder of Leeming from Riverton. These changes cut the Labor margin from 21% to 18.1%.
History
Jandakot in its current form was created at the 2008 election, but a seat of the same name previously existed from 1989 to 1996.
The original Jandakot was a safe Liberal seat, held by two successive Liberal MPs. The first, Barry MacKinnon, served as Opposition Leader before retiring in 1993. Mike Board won the seat in 1993.
In 1996, Jandakot was renamed to Murdoch and Board won that seat. He held it until 2005.
The restored seat of Jandakot was created as a notional Labor seat in 2008, but the seat was won by Liberal candidate Joe Francis. Francis was re-elected in 2013.
Francis lost in 2017 to Labor’s Yaz Mubarakai, who won a narrow victory after a massive 19% swing. Mubarakai was re-elected much more easily in 2021.
Assessment
Jandakot would be an important seat in a close election. It is Labor’s 36th-safest seat.
| Candidate | Party | Votes | % | Swing | Redist |
| Yaz Mubarakai | Labor | 17,950 | 64.5 | +24.1 | 61.0 |
| Mihael McCoy | Liberal | 6,460 | 23.2 | -15.2 | 26.3 |
| Heather Lonsdale | Greens | 1,347 | 4.8 | -1.9 | 5.7 |
| Marianne Pretorius | Australian Christians | 921 | 3.3 | -0.3 | 2.4 |
| Damon Miles | Liberal Democrats | 265 | 1.0 | +1.0 | 1.4 |
| Dominic Kelly | One Nation | 388 | 1.4 | -5.4 | 1.3 |
| P Hallifax | No Mandatory Vaccination | 262 | 0.9 | +0.9 | 1.0 |
| Jagdip Singh | WAxit | 251 | 0.9 | -0.9 | 0.7 |
| Others | 0.0 | ||||
| Informal | 914 | 3.2 |
2021 two-party-preferred result
| Candidate | Party | Votes | % | Swing | Redist |
| Yaz Mubarakai | Labor | 19,773 | 71.0 | +19.2 | 68.1 |
| Mihael McCoy | Liberal | 8,067 | 29.0 | -19.2 | 31.9 |
Polling places have been split into three parts: north-east, north-west and south.
Labor’s two-party-preferred vote ranged from 61.7% in the north-west to 75% in the south.
| Voter group | ALP 2PP % | Total votes | % of votes |
| North-West | 61.7 | 3,589 | 15.1 |
| South | 75.0 | 3,408 | 14.3 |
| North-East | 67.0 | 2,528 | 10.6 |
| Pre-poll | 69.1 | 8,424 | 35.4 |
| Other votes | 67.1 | 5,863 | 24.6 |
Election results in Jandakot at the 2021 WA state election
Toggle between two-party-preferred votes and primary votes for Labor, the Liberal Party and the Greens.
My prediction: Leeming will go back to the Liberals, Canning Vale is a hot swing suburb, and the Atwell area is Labor-leaning, but can go Liberal. Thus, Jandakot could be won by either side. Liberal gain by a hair, particularly as the sitting MLA is contesting the new seat of Oakford.
A 38% swing over two elections is insane, even if some of it was a correction for the big Lib swing in 2013. Just because of the Metronet effect (the Thornlie-Cockburn Link runs through this seat, including Ranford Rd station), I’ll say narrow Labor retain, but in 2029 it’ll be one of the traditional outer suburban marginals that’ll decide whether the Libs win that election.