ALP 9.2%
Incumbent MP
Lara Dalton, since 2021.
- Geography
- Redistribution
- History
- Candidate summary
- Assessment
- 2021 results
- Booth breakdown
- Results maps
Geography
The district of Geraldton covers the town of Geraldton and rural areas around the town. The electorate covers the Greater Geraldton, Northampton and Chapman Valley council areas.
Redistribution
Geraldton expanded to covers a larger rural area, mostly taking in the northern end of the seat of Moore and a small part of North West Central.
History
Geraldton has existed since 1890. The district was dominated by the Labor Party from 1917 to 1991. Since the 1991 by-election, the Liberal Party has won the seat at all but three elections.
Jeff Carr held the seat for Labor from 1974 until 1991. In 1991 he was dumped from the ministry, and resigned. The ensuing by-election was won by the Liberal Party’s Bob Bloffwitch.
Bloffwitch was re-elected in 1993 and 1996, and lost in a big swing to Labor candidate Shane Hill in 2001.
The 2008 redistribution expanded Geraldton to take in surrounding areas, and made the seat a notional Liberal seat. Hill was defeated by Liberal candidate Ian Blayney, and Blayney was re-elected in 2013.
Blayney resigned from the Liberal Party in mid-2019 and joined the Nationals soon after.
Blayney lost his seat at the 2021 election, with Labor’s Lara Dalton winning the seat.
Assessment
There are only five Labor seats held by slimmer margins than Geraldton, so if there is any reversion to normality you’d expect Labor to lose here to either Liberal or Nationals.
| Candidate | Party | Votes | % | Swing | Redist |
| Lara Dalton | Labor | 11,676 | 54.7 | +21.0 | 52.3 |
| Ian Blayney | Nationals | 5,222 | 24.5 | +7.0 | 26.5 |
| Rob Dines | Liberal | 2,750 | 12.9 | -14.8 | 12.8 |
| Matt Roberts | Greens | 536 | 2.5 | -1.5 | 2.6 |
| Chris Mellon | Shooters, Fishers & Farmers | 380 | 1.8 | -2.0 | 2.1 |
| Bruce Davies | One Nation | 336 | 1.6 | -7.9 | 1.6 |
| Mark James Long | No Mandatory Vaccination | 248 | 1.2 | +1.2 | 1.2 |
| Bey Bey Kung | WAxit | 127 | 0.6 | +0.6 | 0.5 |
| Andrew Genovese | Liberal Democrats | 77 | 0.4 | +0.4 | 0.3 |
| Others | 0.0 | ||||
| Informal | 746 | 3.4 |
2021 two-party-preferred result
| Candidate | Party | Votes | % | Swing | Redist |
| Lara Dalton | Labor | 13,170 | 61.7 | +13.0 | 59.2 |
| Ian Blayney | Nationals | 8,173 | 38.3 | -13.0 | 40.8 |
Polling places have been split into four parts. Polling places in the Geraldton urban area have been split into central, north and south, and the remainder has been grouped as outer.
Labor’s two-party-preferred vote was around 65% in all three parts of Geraldton, while the Nationals managed 58.8% in the outer parts of the seat.
| Voter group | LIB prim % | ALP 2PP % | Total votes | % of votes |
| Geraldton Central | 11.3 | 65.0 | 3,017 | 12.5 |
| Geraldton North | 11.8 | 64.8 | 2,380 | 9.9 |
| Outer | 10.9 | 41.2 | 1,854 | 7.7 |
| Geraldton South | 12.1 | 64.9 | 1,093 | 4.5 |
| Pre-poll | 13.6 | 60.7 | 12,311 | 51.1 |
| Other votes | 13.1 | 52.8 | 3,443 | 14.3 |
Election results in Geraldton at the 2021 WA state election
Toggle between two-party-preferred votes and primary votes for Labor, the Nationals, the Liberal Party and the Greens.
10% margin is difficult to overturn in one election
Also this seat is one where a incumbent can build a personal vote it is a bit like Albany.
@mick that margin was due to McGowan’s popularity and covid stance. They will lose the seat. See most state and federal seats had double digit swings to Labor these will go back in double swings agins5 labor
Allot of wishful thinking here, The truth is this will be a tossup on election day, same with Kalgoorlie.
Merome Beard should have ran here instead.
@daniel she has no association with this electorate her divisions of North West Central has no electors here it’s not wishful thing Kalgoorlie will be wln by labor
Merome beard should have run here yes i agree now. geraldton was liberal held until the previous memeber defected to the Nats. Nats havent held this since 1950. when they were the country party. coud be a good contest between Libs and Nats. labor to make the 2pp so they wont be able to help the Nats against the libs it will depend on who make the 2pp out of libs and nats as to who wins here
My prediction: Geraldton used to be a reliable Labor seat, but that was back when the seat covered the city of Geraldton and not much else.
I’d tip the Nationals to win here, especially as the new territory added to the seat was largely National rather than Liberal, plus the Nationals did better than the Liberals in Geraldton itself.
Shane van Styn was the Mayor of Geraldton until recently, previously ran for the Nationals. Probably won’t get enough votes to win, but could be a spoiler for someone.
This is a seat that should be lost by Labor, the question is which of the Liberal or Nationals win. The previous MP was elected as a Liberal twice, and although in 2021 the Nationals vote was higher that is probably because he switched to the Nationals and so retained that personal vote. It probably comes down to candidate quality, which I’m not prepared to assess.
One vote one value changed this seat to I
Thought take it out of labor’s range.
But Labor has held this seat in the past by relatively large margins. As well a country seat can be retained by a good sitting mp.. esp this time as they are a voice in a Labor govt
Greens htv cards won’t be getting handed out due to an error identifying a candidate as a member of the wrong party. Can someone shed light on which candidate and what party they were identified as.
They identified the Liberal’s candidate, Tim Milnes, as the candidate for Australian Christians, who is actually listed above him.
Court of disputed returns?
? No they’ve been banned from handing them out. If they do they will get fined and yea probably but I’d say they will have binned them and possibly reprinted today there website however does show the correct candidate/party
Libs are actually a chance here. It will depend who finishes above who. Labor will poll enough primary to make the 2pp/2cp. I suspect though they will only pool somewhere around 35%. They should be easily overcome by the centre right vote and lose the seat to either the Libs or Nats after preferences. Labor will likely finish first.
Labor will probably lose this seat.
They will in my opinion
This is difficult for Labor as each boundary change expands the seat
Futher past the city of Geraldton and harder for Labor to win.
Labor in the past has managed double digit margins here.
Will go close
Taking a moment to run a pre-emptive victory lap for noting that Shane van Styn would likely end up being a spoiler when no-one else even noticed him. He seems to have torpedoed the Liberals in Geraldton city to the benefit of the Nats. However Labor seems to have done badly enough that Liberal preferences could end up making it a Nat/Ind final two. I think Warr probably still wins in that scenario.
North the Ind cannot win. Labor has preferenced Libs-> Nat -> Shane. Either the labor prefernces push libs into the top 2 and then they win on Nat preferences or the nats win on lib and lab preferences
Sry that should read libs win on labor prefernces or the nats scrape through