Welcome to the Tally Room’s guide to the 2025 Western Australian state election. This guide includes comprehensive coverage of each seat’s history, geography, political situation and results of the 2021 election, as well as maps and tables showing those results.
Most of this election guide is only available to people who chip in $5 or more per month via Patreon, but a small selection have been unlocked for free access. The free guides are listed further down this page.
Table of contents:
Legislative Assembly seat profiles
Seat profiles have been produced for all 59 Legislative Assembly electoral districts.
You can use the following navigation to click through to each seat’s profile.
You can also use the following map to click on any lower house seat, and then click through to the relevant guide.
Legislative Council profile
The Western Australian Legislative Council is elected using a system of proportional representation.
Up until 2021, the Council was elected from six regions, with each region electing six members. The new Council in 2025 will consist of 37 members elected at large, with all members representing the whole sttae.
This guide includes a history of the Legislative Council, a list of sitting MLCs, list of winnable candidates, 2021 results and assessment of the parties’ chances.
Free samples
Most of this election guide is only available to people who chip in $5 or more per month via Patreon, but a small selection have been unlocked for free access:
Contact
If you have a correction or an update for a single electorate page, feel free to post a comment. You can also send an email by using this form.
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@mick based on recent polling shes ahead of the liberals so she will scoop up their votes
@John can you provide a link to these polls please?
@i posted recently on one of threads i cant remember which but it basically has NATs and labor neck and neck after preferences. theres another one on facebook (though i dont know how accurate) which shows the key issues of those who will be in the division with 31% of voters saying the live sheep trade being the core issue
https://www.facebook.com/groups/localgovernmentreform/posts/3815552948665676/?paipv=0&eav=AfbjzIYdAfXfK24I7Pl-AbrexXeqoe4RVjpP8VLLf4WUHJ_Ne5A9_l5OLvErkkjrnVA&_rdr
Mia Davies is likely to be a one to two term mp max in my opinion any subsequent redistribution that doesnt increase the amount of seats will likely see bullwinkel shed its rural parts and move further into perth but i suppose keeping it out of labors hands for the time being until the libs regain their former strength is better then nothing
@John it doesn’t say whether they would prefer Liberal or National though.
yea but the polls i saw put the nats ahead of the libs this wont be a libvsnat battle it will be lab vs nat or lib but im saying vs nat atm
Electorate level polls are notoriously unreliable. So there is no guarantee they got it right. Still think this seat will not be won by the nats. With 3% margin is a 50/50 chance of alp win.
@mick your forgetting thats based on 2022 results which wont be replicated and the fact there is no incumbent mp. if you look at the 2019 notional margin vs the 2022 margin and calculate the avg between the two its a liberal seat. for that reason im giving 60/40 odds to the libs/nats.
Agree John, Bullwinkle will be an almost certain Liberal gain and will likely see a swing above average similar to what happened for the new seat of Burt in 2016. It had a Liberal margin of 5% upon its creation in 2016, but with no sitting member and a strong Labor candidate the swing was well above average enabling Matt Keogh to easily win.
@yoh an agreed 2016 was a good year for labor due to problems in the liberals and useless turnbull as pm if abbott had been pm and the libs found a decent candidate i think they could of won, the nats have a decent candidate and will benefit from lib preferences and the hybrid nature of the seat will help them out
Labor have preselected Shire of Mundaring councillor of six years and current deputy president Trish Cook while the Libs have preselected veteran Matt Moran
i wouldnt be surprised if labor faces tough challenges in its regional and rural seats due to the live sheep export ban
One Nation has now dropped Ben Dawkins (their only WA state MP) only 6 months after he joined the party. A few days ago Craig Kelly quit and a month ago they dropped Stephen Andrew in QLD as well. What an utterly hopeless bunch they are.
@yoh remember that there were other factors that helped Labor win that seat including the coming of Labor at a state level and a liberal party that were at war with itself. Short-medium term libs may be able to win burt back
Anything under 15% margin has to be considered vulnerable
I’m sure I’ve said this before here, or at least another forum, but I still stand by this, as a lifelong WA resident:
I think the next WA election (March 2025) will be like NSW in 1984 (namely the Liberals/Nationals buy back the furniture from the pawnbrokers, after 2 big Labor landslides):
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/1984_New_South_Wales_state_election
And that the 2029 election will be like 1988 NSW election, in that the Liberals/Nationals win a large victory.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/1988_New_South_Wales_state_election
Anything could happen in that time, but that’s just my $0.02.
Re live sheep exports… what are the arguments for? Besides greedy farmers! Isn’t this s federal not state issue… Labor holds no rural or provincial seats federally
@laine yes onp seems in self destruct mode in nsw they had 3 in the upper house then there were one next state election.there will
none hopefully
@Mick Quinlivan they hold some provincial seats and even some “rural” seats just not any rural seats (notice the quotation marks as opposed to no quotation marks?). I.e, they don’t hold any agricultural rural seats where farming and fishing are the main industries but they do hold seats outside the capital cities.
I intended to refer to wa in
My comment Durack.Oconnor and Forrest are the rural provincial seats in wa at federal level
@Anton i use to live in WA and i agree with your analysis.
@Mick it’s about greed it’s about the livelihood and businesses of not just the farmers but everyone in the chain from truck drivers to the dock workers. Seats like Pearce Canning and the new seat of Bullwinkel are also effected. Even the real Kate Chaney has backflipped and now opposed the ban. It’s about standing with their farmers.
While it’s a federal issue it’s the same Labor Party that has done it and voters in the overlapping state seats won’t differentiate
@Mick that should read not about greed
@Darth Vader speaking of Kate Chaney, do you think she’ll retain her seat this time? Polls have it quite close due to the correction in WA but Dutton being Coaliyion leader won’t help in the teal seats hence why they need moderate candidates there.
@NP i reckon they can retake it. i think the vote bottomed out under morrison and i hear that some of the wealthy donors in the seat who walked away from the libs in 2022 are coming back to the party
Seats I’m predicting will fall in 2025
Albany
Warren-Blackwood
Murray-Wellington
Kalgoorlie
Geraldton
Dawesville
Darling Range
Kalamunda
Riverton
Bateman
South Perth
Nedlands
Churchlands
Scarborough
Carine
Possibilities
Bicton
Kingsley
Hillarys
Kimberley could be interesting in 2029. While it’s on a 21% margin you have to remember 20% is like 3200 votes as it has a much smaller voter numbers due to LDA making up nearly half of electors
I’m predicticting a 7-8% swing back to the libs at a federal level and a 14-15% swing at a state level in wa