Welcome to the Tally Room’s guide to the 2025 Western Australian state election. This guide includes comprehensive coverage of each seat’s history, geography, political situation and results of the 2021 election, as well as maps and tables showing those results.
Most of this election guide is only available to people who chip in $5 or more per month via Patreon, but a small selection have been unlocked for free access. The free guides are listed further down this page.
Table of contents:
Legislative Assembly seat profiles
Seat profiles have been produced for all 59 Legislative Assembly electoral districts.
You can use the following navigation to click through to each seat’s profile.
You can also use the following map to click on any lower house seat, and then click through to the relevant guide.
Legislative Council profile
The Western Australian Legislative Council is elected using a system of proportional representation.
Up until 2021, the Council was elected from six regions, with each region electing six members. The new Council in 2025 will consist of 37 members elected at large, with all members representing the whole sttae.
This guide includes a history of the Legislative Council, a list of sitting MLCs, list of winnable candidates, 2021 results and assessment of the parties’ chances.
Free samples
Most of this election guide is only available to people who chip in $5 or more per month via Patreon, but a small selection have been unlocked for free access:
Contact
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I’m expect seats like Warren-Blackwood, Churchlands and Nedlands to return to the Liberals those electorates particularly Churchlands and Nedlands are the sort of once in a life time blip.
Prediction at this stage:
ALP 36, LIB 15, NAT 6, 2 OTH
Lib gains: Churchlands, Bateman, Riverton, Bicton, Kalamunda, Darling Range, Carine, Mindarie, Kingsley, Jandakot, Kalgoorlie, Murray Wellington, Balcatta.
Nat gains: Warren-Blackwood and Geraldton
Oth gains: Fremantle gained by Greens, possible Independent or Green win in Nedlands.
Too close to call/highly contested: Maylands (ALP v GRN), Mount Lawley (ALP v LIB v GRN), Perth (ALP v GRN), South Perth (ALP, LIB, IND), Joondalup (ALP v LIB), Swan Hills (ALP v LIB).
I live in the electorate of Fremantle. I wouldn’t write off the Greens winning here but it would be very unlikely at least at the next election. The margin is just too big to overcome and Lib preferences isn’t guaranteed.
A high profile candidate like Scott Ludlam would make things interesting though.
Maylands and Perth will probably become a LAB v GRN contest for the long term though.
@CG what is your reasoning behind Nedlands? I don’t see anything to indicate anything other than an easy lib gain.
@Mostly,
Nedlands seems to progressive, inner-city much like Prahran or Maiwar to elect a Liberal under the current political climate. But WA Labor has lost a lot of residents like local issues such as infill and developments. A teal independent or Greens campaign would pick up alot of support here.
I think Liberals would have had a better chance if Zak Kirkup was the Liberal candidate though.
The live sheep export ban is gonna hit the state govt hard here especially in rural and regional districts
@CG i think the libs or nats will get Albany, Kalgoorlie, Dawesville. and make serious inroads in Pilbara, Kimberley, Collie-Preston, Bunbury, Swan Hills, Wanneroo and Butler due to the live sheep export ban. other inner city seats may fall or become marginal and fall in 2029 when i think the libs will return to government. we could see the red wall on the mainland turn to a blue wall by 2030.
Nedlands, Scarborough and South Perth should also flip. so by my reckoning libs could get anywhere uup to 27 seats. however not enough for govt it would be a serious blow to the labor state and indeed the federal govt
I do agree with the idea that labor is going to get obliterated in regional seats but I don’t think the regional issues are going to cut through as far in Perth
I think the Libs will regain all their 2017-held seats except Hillarys; seats like Hillarys, Kingsley, Jandakot, and Joondalup will likely be marginal, but survive due to the sophomore surge withstanding the correction swing and/or have popular Labor MPs. The Nats regain all lost seats including Albury.
*Albany
I suspect it will look a bit like the 2015 NSW state election.
Also, @Ian, the last Nationals MP for Albany was Leonard Hill. He served from 1936 until 1956 (20 years is quite a long time in office by the way), back when it was the Country Party. The Liberals on the other hand only lost it in 2001 but haven’t gotten it back yet. Despite that I think the Liberals should be able to regain it this time.
I was quite surprised in 2013 when Labor lost Perth (an inner-city seat which had a margin of 7.7%) to the Liberals yet not only did Peter Watson retain Albany for Labor but he even bucked the statewide swing against Labor and actually slightly increased his margin (in 2008 the margin was 0.2% and in 2013 it was 52.0%, a swing of 1.8% to Labor). 2013 was a landslide win for the Coalition, with the Liberals winning an outright majority and thus having enough seats to form government with the support of the Nationals (though they continued to have the Nationals’ support).
To make things even more odd, 2013 was the year Labor lost a landslide to the Coalition on the federal level, with Tony Abbott beating Kevin Rudd after he replaced Julia Gillard. WA had a Coalition government since 2008 (a year after John Howard’s Coalition lost to Kevin Rudd’s Labor Party at the 2007 federal election) and since then WA had a big resources boom and WA had one of its best ever economies (in 2013 the WA economy had a higher net increase than anywhere else in Australia), combined with an unpopular Labor government that had Julia Gillard in it with the confidence and supply of the Greens who made her introduce a carbon tax which was very unpopular. The local anger over federal Labor’s carbon tax and the state economy being in great shape partially (again, partially due to a resources boom) combined with Albany being the most marginal seat in WA should’ve been enough for the Liberals win Albany in 2013, so either the Liberals didn’t campaign that well in Albany or Peter Watson must’ve been a very popular MP.
What’s interesting with Perth in 2013 though is that not only did the Labor vote decrease a lot but so did the Greens vote. This is despite it being an inner-city seat.
Interestingly though in 2017 and 2021 there were double-digit swings to Labor on a TPP basis across WA in two historic landslides under Mark McGowan but Labor only had single-digit TPP swings to them in Albany on both occasions (+4.1% in 2017 (Labor vs National) and +7.8% in 2021 (Labor vs Liberal), note that Peter Watson retired in 2021 and was succeeded by Rebecca Stephens).
@ Nether Portal
Agree Peter Watson was a popular MP so hard to dislodge a bit like Leon Bignell in SA or Joe Helper previously in Victoria. These regional MPs are often notoriously hard to dislodge and that is why Geraldton may not be an easy pick up if the incumbent Labor MP has worked hard.
Sorry NP, I meant the Libs would win Albany and I think Nats preference leakage helped Labor retain it in 2013. The WA Libs and Nats shouldn’t run in the same seats to eliminate preference leakage and to form a coalition government after 2029.
@Ian yeah the very tiny amount of Nationals preferences that leaked allowed Labor to win since the combined Coalition primary vote was 49.5% which is obviously enough to win.
And I agree they shouldn’t be running in the same seats as each other but it’s too late now since the Nationals have already fielded candidates in seats the Liberals are contesting. Strangely enough they’re even contesting some seats in Perth for the first time, and I don’t just mean outer-suburban seats with some semi-rural suburbs (they’ve contested those before), I mean entirely metropolitan seats like South Perth (a blue-ribbon seat that the Liberals narrowly lost to Labor in 2021).
@Nimalan Geraldton is a Coalition heartland though. I expect either the Liberals or the Nationals to regain Geraldton.
@ NP
Prior to 2008 Labor held Geraldton. It was really one vote one value that hurt Labor since. I would say Geraldton is like Albany demographically a regional city.