ALP 28.1%
Incumbent MP
David Scaife, since 2021.
- Geography
- Redistribution
- History
- Candidate summary
- Assessment
- 2021 results
- Booth breakdown
- Results maps
Geography
Southern Perth. The district includes the suburbs of Cockburn Central, Hammond Park, Henderson, Wattleup, Yangebup, Munster, Beeliar, Success, and parts of Coogee. The district covers central parts of the City of Cockburn.
Redistribution
Cockburn expanded south, gaining Hammond Park, Henderson and Wattleup from Kwinana, and losing Atwell to Jandakot. There were also minor changes to the northern border with Willagee/Bibra Lake and Fremantle. These changes increased the Labor margin from 26.7% to 28.1%.
Cockburn has existed continuously since 1962, and has always been held by Labor MPs.
Fran Logan won Cockburn in 2001, and held the seat for four terms.
Logan retired in 2021, and Labor candidate David Scaife won the seat.
Assessment
Cockburn is a safe Labor seat.
| Candidate | Party | Votes | % | Swing | Redist |
| David Scaife | Labor | 17,714 | 68.4 | +16.7 | 69.9 |
| Owen Mulder | Liberal | 4,822 | 18.6 | -9.8 | 17.5 |
| Jesse Smith | Greens | 1,655 | 6.4 | -2.5 | 6.2 |
| Elspeth Taimre | No Mandatory Vaccination | 461 | 1.8 | +1.8 | 2.0 |
| Igor Mironenko | One Nation | 456 | 1.8 | -0.1 | 1.8 |
| Andrew Baker | WAxit | 426 | 1.6 | +0.4 | 1.4 |
| Brian Murray | Liberal Democrats | 374 | 1.4 | +1.4 | 1.2 |
| Others | 0.1 | ||||
| Informal | 995 | 3.7 |
2021 two-party-preferred result
| Candidate | Party | Votes | % | Swing | Redist |
| David Scaife | Labor | 19,870 | 76.7 | +12.4 | 78.1 |
| Owen Mulder | Liberal | 6,024 | 23.3 | -12.4 | 21.9 |
Polling places have been split into three parts: central, east and west.
Labor’s two-party-preferred vote ranged from 73.9% in the west to 80.4% in the east.
| Voter group | ALPÂ 2PP % | Total votes | % of votes |
| East | 80.4 | 3,546 | 14.6 |
| West | 73.9 | 3,085 | 12.7 |
| Central | 79.4 | 2,500 | 10.3 |
| Pre-poll | 78.7 | 9,718 | 40.0 |
| Other votes | 77.5 | 5,460 | 22.5 |
Election results in Cockburn at the 2021 WA state election
Toggle between two-party-preferred votes and primary votes for Labor, the Liberal Party and the Greens.
Is Brunetta Di Russo related to Caroline?
My prediction: Labor hold.
This seat’s probably due for a name change. Once upon a time (especially before one-vote-one-value reforms) it covered pretty much all of Cockburn council; now there’s several seats that overlap it. I’ll go for Beeliar – named after a suburb / major road / local wetlands, and it’s an Aboriginal name for those who care about ticking that box.
Apart from that, nothing interesting here. Obvious Labor retain.
Not sure about that, Cockburn Central, the train station are still in this seat. The seat makes up the majority of the council apart from a few outliers (which have always felt a bit more Freo or Melville anyway). No issue with a name change to Beeliar, lovely name, but I don’t see it happening.
Top 5 safe labor seat, very boring contest
BoP:
I’d agree, and to add to your points, it’s also centrally located in the suburb. Definitely suggest it next state redistribution.
*centrally located in the electoral district I mean.
Alp to lose 13 seats approx
Latest polls suggest 57.2% 2pp alp
Labor to lose the trad liberal seats
Like nedlands Bateman
South Perth Kalamunda Scarborough may be retained.
Labor to lose warren black wood to nats
Retain most other country seats
Geraldton and Kalgoorlie to go down the wire.
Numbers approx 2017 result
Is basil fox being challenged by a teal?
Suspect a couple of teals may win
@Mick Quin
There is a teal in Churchlands, but afaik, there’s no indications that any of the Teals will gain any seats (Fremantle, Churchlands, Nedlands, Cottlesloe)
Teals won’t win Freemantle
Don’t know the others are normally reliable liberal seats… that all fall in or close to Curtin electorate
The teal in Fremantle matly use the state election asa springboard to contest the federal seat. I would.