Churchlands – WA 2025

I predicted that when the guide was released, this seat would be unlocked. Thanks!

Anyway, I predict a very big swing to the Liberals here and an easy Liberal gain.

Agree Nether Portal, especially if the Liberals do end up nominating ‘star’ candidate and current Perth Mayor Basil Zempilas.

I think he will be.

He won’t be premier like Newman, people across Australia remember Campbell Newman being a 1-term lord mayor premier. They won’t do the same mistake in WA. If they do, they will be thrashed. Wouldn’t be surprised if he is tied to the ”gang”

But of course this will be a Liberal gain, but it will be less than the 14% margin they held it in 2017, I suspect around 10%

Surely the Liberals cannot be this stupid making him leader. the Project failed in QLD. What makes them think it will work here? I know allot of young people in WA who would never vote for him as leader. and I wouldn’t call them particularly ”left”

@daniel t I suspect they won’t.

The conservatives need a 12% swing towards them which is unlikely to happen, especially with someone so on the nose as basil. Not many people like him except stokes.

@vyonne most of that of not all of that margin is McGowan covid wa first vote. With that gone liberal gain

@ Vyonne They only need a swing of +0.9, but I can see how you’ve jumbled the numbers up.

Anyway, this seat is basically a guaranteed Liberal pickup. Maybe an Independent could shake things up but otherwise there’s nothing to see here.

I think he means around a 12% swing to revert it back to its 2017 margin which I can agree it won’t. Labor will win close to 60% TPP statewide at the next election with this seat going Liberal but it will be in the “Reasonably Safe” or “Safe” category rather than “Very Safe” margin.

The Liberals will gain this but they may focus a lot on seats where they can get huge swings like Albany, Bunbury, Dawesville and Mandurah.

@daniel t while I won’t comment on the tpp I reckon the libs and cats will get 13 seats extra between them. While not enough to form govt it’s puts them in a far more effective place to challenge for 2029. Labor will also lose control of the upper house

https://x.com/joshua_zimm/status/1772221692749709690?s=46&t=TCVKol5Xxrihp2TiZ3aU4A

Basil Zempilas has been preselected here.

The one thing that’s dead certain is that the ALP won’t be holding this seat, and would have been rolling around the floor laughing when they won it in 2021. I don’t think they realistically think of it as holdable either – they’re not spending any money on this one, while Stuart Aubrey in Scarborough is getting a profile, showing what Labor think may be possible.

Labor would be better off putting money into seats like Scarborough or Hillarys (or Riverton etc)

That said, given the Libs are looking likely to put Basil Z up here, this might be a seat where a teal style independent might have a chance (it is in Curtin after all, and IIRC it includes the parts of Curtin where Kate Chaney got the best part of her vote). Not sure though if state politics is quite ready for an influx of indys like Federal politics was.

The WA page hasn’t been unlocked yet so I’m putting this here.

After ny first two maps were well-received (federal and NSW state target seats), I’ve created a third map in the target seats map series: a map of WA target seats at the 2025 state election. This one was tricky to make and any suggestions or corrections are more than welcome. The hard part was the fact that Labor has won two consecutive landslides in 2017 and 2021 which both saw the Liberals win few seats (the 2021 result broke the record for biggest ever landslide in an Australian federal/state election), plus 2013 was a Coalition landslide. So for the past 11 years, WA’s political landscape hasn’t been normal. Therefore, only a few seats are bright purple (minor targets) but a lot are normal purple (average targets) or dark purple (top targets).

Something I’ve done for this map that I haven’t done for any other one in the series is I’ve actually called a few seats as gains. While on all my maps there are seats I’ve called as holds (usually safe or very seats), I’ve never given away seats as gains before. Since the Liberals and Nationals currently have a combined total of just six seats while Labor has a supermajority with 53 seats, I highly expect the Coalition to gain many more seats, enough to form a more credible opposition than in 2017 but most likely not enough to regain government (though I honestly wouldn’t rule out a Coalition win in 2025).

On my map, in addition to Cottesloe and Vasse, I’ve given the Liberals three extra seats: Carine, Churchlands and Nedlands: all three seats being blue-ribbon seats that were shock wins even in 2021 (Churchlands was definitely the most shocking). In addition to Central Wheatbelt, Mid-West (the new seat created by merging Moore and North West Central) and Roe, I’ve also given the Nationals an extra seat: Warren-Blackwood (another very shocking loss even in 2021).

You can view the map here: https://jmp.sh/jst3wl5J

@np anything under 10% should be a target. I reckon the libs and nats will win a combined 13 from Labor giving them 19 seats combined. The lc should fall back to a crossbench needed and Labor majority there gone. Tbh I’m half expecting Labor to vote to abolish it like qld did way back when they had the numbers though I spoke they won’t otherwise it would have pointless bringing in one vote one value laws earlier in the term

@John I think I put everything under 15% as a target. Seats under 10% were big targets.

My idea though is it might be like the 2020 NT general election, where the CLP gained back a lot of its safe seats that shockingly fell to Labor in their strongholds of Alice Springs and Katherine and gained two Palmerston seats but still didn’t win any Darwin seats (they came close in Port Darwin but still lost), yet they gained the remote seat of Barkly which even after the big remote swing to the CLP in 2012 hadn’t fallen to the CLP since 1987. The swing to the CLP and against Labor in Barkly was huge.

What this would mean in a WA context is a scenario where as some suggested the Nationals will gain back a few seats they lost while the Liberals will gain back a few blue-ribbon seats in Perth but otherwise not much ground in Perth. Instead, this would see the Liberals win some regional seats from Labor with huge swings. A commonly suggested example of a potential Liberal gain is the seat of Albany which Labor narrowly retained in 2013 despite a Liberal landslide statewide. Another seat that might swing heavy enough to be gained is the safe Labor seat of Kimberley. If what we saw in Barkly in 2020 (i.e remote Indigenous communities ditching Labor in large numbers) then Kimberley might fall. All the Liberals need to do is flip booths in Broome, Derby and Kununurra like how the CLP flipped booths in Tennant Creek.

The Nationals should get back Geraldton and Warren-Blackwood and I see them having a chance of winning back Pilbara too (they should be able to easily flip booths in Karratha and Port Hedland).

For my 5 cents on the next WA state election.

I think the following will be the seats that change:

1) Churchlands – will be the first to go – but I think Basil Zempalis (the guy who at the footy I called took ugly pills will be a polarizing character and this may fall to a teal like candidate.
2) Warren – Blackwood – will depend on the Green vote – this was once a strong Labor area.
3) Nedlands – I think when you have a hospital and an university in an electorate there will always been a strong social vote – so this may not change. This is a seat like North Sydney federally – big hospital and education precinct.
4) Carine – will be the second to go this is not a Labor area
5) Bateman – this is not traditionally Labor so will fall.
6) Geraldton – the new boundaries of this seat will make it hard for Labor – they need to win the Geraldton booths – but another seat with a long Labor history.
7) Scarborough – Labor seems to think this is there – Stuart Aubrey sems a hard worker and helps when he an active member of the surf club.
8) South Perth – will be a toss up. Seems to have had a number of Independent Liberal members too
9) Albany – even with Labor at its lowest – it was held – but I suspect that was due to the member Peter Watson.
10) Dawesville – will be doubtful for Labor – it all depends on the work on the local member
11) Kalumunda and Darling Range – Kalamunda is likely to change hands – the member is retiring, how many seats changed in NSW due to a retiring member. Darling Range the seat has changed to be a Byford seat and the new rail may keep this Labor.

So I think 6 – 7 seats will change hands.

Just my 5 cents.

I’m estimating the libs and nats to get 19 seats 40 seats for labor

Article in today’s West with mysterious “internal polling”, trying to stir up leadership drama around Libby Mettam (current WA Lib leader):

Apparently, the Libs got 35% (primary vote) in “14 key seats” last election (more on that later). With Mettam as leader that apparently sinks to 31% (ie: worse than the 2021 obliteration), and they only win their current two next year; with Basil Zempilas as leader, Lib pv climbs to 38%, and they win seven seats: the current two, plus Churchlands, Nedlands, Carine, Scarborough and Bateman.

There’s so many things wrong with that I’m not sure where to start.

If you pretend primary vote is 2pp, and apply a 3% swing to the pendulum, they gain Churchlands and that’s it (the Nats would also gain Warren-Blackwood). Scarborough (ALP 9.8%) is the least marginal of their supposed gains, so that as a uniform swing would also net them Geraldton (ALP/Nat margin in 2021, but it had previously been a Lib seat). Alternatively if the work experience kid at the West just used the pendulum from the 2021 election, Scarborough is now 10.4%, so scratch Geraldton but gain South Perth.

The Libs’ actual result in 2021 was 21.3% statewide, so I’m guessing they polled the golden triangle – not sure how else they get a figure of 35%. Take the two seats they won in 2021, and read down the Labor side of the pendulum as far as Bicton (while ignoring Warren-Blackwood, Geraldton, Albany and Fremantle – Libs didn’t make the top two) and the average Lib primary vote was 36%. So these “key seats” were the strongest Lib seats in the state.

And for all that, in any other circumstance, if any poll was showing making Zempilas leader would lead to a 65-35 smashing and only seven seats out of 59, the only sane response would be “get this guy out of here!”. Instead, Channel Stokes is trying to pump up his tyres. (For those not from Perth: Zempilas is best known as a sports newsreader, and gets plenty of free publicity from Channel 7 / the West , which are part of the same media empire.)

As for me: I believe the 55-45 to Labor polls I’ve seen around. There’ll be a dozen new Lib MPs, Zempilas will likely be one of them, and there’ll be others who have been in the game longer than he has. Even with a ridiculous media bias, becoming leader is harder than it looks.

@Bird of Paradox I’m surprised that Labor is still polling so well in WA even after McGowan has left. Yes they’ve come back down to earth but a 55-45 is still a landslide results in normal times. Either Roger Cook has done well to maintain broad support for Labor in the state or the state Liberals and Nationals are completely hopeless.

The WA Liberals are definitely gonna win more than seven seats. They will win at least 15.

Tommo: both of those things are true. The Libs have been reduced to a faint squeaking noise from Busselton which isn’t even the official oppostion, while Kerry Stokes cheerfully uses it as the political wing of his business interests. Meanwhile, the McGowan / Cook govt keeps on building train lines to outer sprawlburbia, which will help them hold seats like Butler, West Swan, Forrestfield and Darling Range. (Not so much an issue next year, but in 2029.) The Greens might have a vague chance in Fremantle or Maylands, but with so many outer suburban seats with fat margins, Labor don’t need to care – that’s a next-election problem.

@Bird of Paradox the Greens won’t win any seats.

I think what Labor ought to do in this seat is for Christine Tonkin to withdraw like they did in Subiaco and run dead and just put up a random candidate right before nominations. There is no long term benefit of holding this seat and it would be better if the Teals run and give Libs a headache in instead. Neither party has a 2030 target and WA is the only state where emissions have gone up.

@Nimalan I somehow doubt the Teals would have a chance in this election. if they wanted to they could’ve made a play last time round. Granted Churchlands is in Curtin but it’s a bit late for a Teal to start campaigning now with the election due in less than 4 months.

Having said that I have heard of a ‘tealish’ candidate going for Cottosloe which is just dreaming given that is even more blue ribbon than Churchlands and the latter has a way better chance at falling to a Teal than Cottosloe ever will.

@ Tommo9 it maybe too late as you have correctly pointed out but the lack of a 2030 target is still an issue. Also Labor has no real long term interest to hold Churchlands it does not overlap with a Federal seat which they have an interest in.
Once benefit of the Teals to Labor it means they dont have to worry about this demographic and it is a problem that the Libs have to deal with it.

@nP ive got the Libs/nats on about 20 seats total

@John yeah should be something like that. Labor will keep lots of seats in Perth though.

@Nimalan @Tommo9 even if the teals ran I think they’d flip like in Sydney and Melbourne. Cottesloe is also the richest electoral district in WA and contains some old money areas as well as affluent beachside suburbs.

@ NP
Do you mean Churchlands will flip if the Teals ran.

Nimalan: why would Labor run a paper candidate when they’ve got a perfectly good sitting MP? Tonkin knows she’s got little chance, but she’s staying and fighting anyway. You never know, she might win. Compare to Nedlands, where Katrina Stratton has baled out to the upper house and Labor don’t even have a new candidate yet.

Also, what’s with the reference to “Subiaco”? Last time there was a seat with that name was the 80’s. A Labor premier held it.

NP: like I said, a vague chance, given the obvious swing away from Labor. The Greens have won Fremantle before and came second in 2021, and people are starting to forget about Adele Carles. They also came second on primaries in Maylands but the Libs overtook them on One Nation / Christian preferences (so, a close 3cp). Maylands has a retiring Labor MP; I reckon Dan Bull is a good candidate, so they shouldn’t have much trouble, but it’s worth keeping an eye on. Perth is also a chance when John Carey retires, although not before. The Libs will barely campaign in seats like this, so a ALP/Grn 2cp is quite possible.

@ BOP
The reason i think Labor should run dead is that a Teal would have a better hold of the seat and may hold it even in 2029. In Victoria, Labor had little interest in holding Hawthorn in 2022 and were running dead hoping Melissa Lowe the Teal could win the seat.
The reason is that this is not Labor’s traditional demographic and a Teal will give Libs a headache to deal with. Labor needs to focus on holding Outer Perth seats since they overlap with marginal Federal seats while Churchlands does not.

My apologies ignore Subiaco i meant to say Nedlands where Labor baled out.

@Nimalan @Bird of Paradox meant to say flop not flip. Flop like they did in NSW and Victoria (where they got no seats). Crazy how one letter changes an entire sentence.

No, Churchlands won’t go to a teal, nor will Cottesloe. There will be no teals and no Greens in the next WA Legislative Assembly. Just the three major parties: Labor, the Liberals and the Nationals.

I’m unable to make an exact seat prediction yet as I would have to individually assess each seat as opposed to some other elections where I can just say a number. But, the Coalition will have below 30 and above 15 seats. I’ll get back to this soon.

@ NP
The concern is that both Lib and Labor have no 2030 target even if they announce a 1% cut from 2005 i will be satisfied.
Also do you think the Libs will preference Labor ahead of the Greens.

Having a look at the 17 seats (on both sides) with under 15% margins, I would say most if not all will go to the Coalition.

Those 17 seats are Albany (the most marginal seat Labor held before 2021), Bateman, Churchlands, Carine, Darling Range, Dawesville, Geraldton, Kalamunda, Kalgoorlie, Nedlands, Riverton, Scarborough, South Perth and Warren-Blackwood. In that scenario the Coalition would hold onto all six of their seats and gain 11 seats. But I think they can do better than that, for example they could win seats like Bicton, Hillarys (Labor’s safest seat they gained in 2021), Jandakot, Kingsley, Murray-Wellington and Pilbara, all of which are on margins of less than 20%.

However, regardless, polling shows the Coalition isn’t making inroads into many key areas of Perth that normally decide WA state elections, rather it is just regaining the ground it lost in its heartlands in 2021 thanks to COVID and a popular Labor Premier in Mark McGowan. Those heartlands being regional areas and the affluent suburbs of Perth, especially in the part of Perth’s Western suburbs that is commonly known as the Golden Triangle (essentially the Northern Beaches of Perth). This is evident by the fact that in the scenario that the Coalition wins all 17 of those seats, all but two were seats they lost in 2021 (the other two are Albany and Kalamunda; note that while Albany still swung big to Labor, it was the smallest swing in the state (only +7.8%) and only single digits because the popular sitting member Peter Watson retired, similarly the swing in Kalamunda whilst big was still only +9.5% which is below the state average).

@Nimalan I agree they need to announce a target, and I think they will eventually.

As for Coalition preferences, I think the Liberals and the Nationals will both preference each other, then One Nation and other conservatives, then Labor and then the Greens last. That’s usually what seems to happen.

Nimalan: Running dead isn’t the same thing as ditching an existing MP, though. Stratton is obviously seen as a future minister (there’s quite a few retiring), so she got a safe spot in the upper house. Tonkin is almost 70, so she didn’t. There’s no harm in letting her run again – they get whatever personal vote she’s built up over four years. If there’s no notable independent this close to the election, it’s unlikely to be anything but a Lib/ALP seat – it’d be silly for Labor to get out of the way of something that turns out not to exist. Note that in Hawthorn the independent ended up coming third.

As far as anything to do with climate policy goes: if you want to understand WA politics, you first begin by understanding the fundamental and basic fact that both WA Labor and WA Libs are the political wing of the mining industry. Here’s something from today:

https://www.abc.net.au/news/2024-11-27/albanese-kills-environmental-protection-reforms/104651976

Cook managed to overrule Plibersek in her own federal portfolio. That’s how much power the mining industry has in this state.

An independent is officially running in this seat – Stirling City councillor Lisa Thornton – on what seems to be a so-called ‘teal’ platform.

https://issuu.com/postnews/docs/20241214?fr=sZDVjZjcyNzYxNjI

Liberal hold, teal might come second though unless the teals go absolutely down in flames in WA like they did in Victoria. In NSW they weren’t successful either but at least they came second in a couple of seats.