ALP 1.1%
Incumbent MP
Christine Tonkin, since 2021.
- Geography
- Redistribution
- History
- Candidate summary
- Assessment
- 2021 results
- Booth breakdown
- Results maps
Geography
Inner north of Perth. Churchlands covers the suburbs of Churchlands, Floreat, Glendalough, City Beach, Osborne Park, Wembley Downs, Woodland and parts of Innaloo. Churchlands covers parts of the Cambridge and Stirling council areas.
Redistribution
Churchlands expanded north, taking in Osborne Park and part of Innaloo from Scarborough and losing the remainder of Doubleview from Scarborough.
History
The seat of Churchlands has existed since 1996. The seat was held for an independent for most of that time, and by the Liberal Party from 2013 until 2021.
Churchlands was first won in 1996 by independent MP Liz Constable. Constable had first been elected to parliament at the 1991 Floreat by-election. She was a former member of the Liberal Party who had resigned to run for the by-election.
Constable was re-elected to parliament in 1993, 1996, 2001, 2005 and 2008, and became a minister in the Liberal-led government after the 2008 election. Constable retired at the 2013 election.
Liberal candidate Sean L’Estrange was elected to represent Churchlands in 2013, and he was re-elected in 2017.
L’Estrange lost his seat to Labor candidate Christine Tonkin, who won by the smallest margin in the state.
- Anthony J Fels (Independent)
- Christine Tonkin (Labor)
- Basil Zempilas (Liberal)
- Lisa Thornton (Independent)
- James Rai (Australian Christians)
- Tian Carrie-Wilson (Independent)
- Caroline McLean (Greens)
Assessment
Churchlands is a very conservative seat, and the area has traditionally been held either by the Liberal Party or by an independent. If Labor is at all competitive here in 2025, that suggests that the Liberal Party are not making much of a recovery.
| Candidate | Party | Votes | % | Swing | Redist |
| Sean L’Estrange | Liberal | 11,087 | 43.9 | -9.2 | 43.6 |
| Christine Tonkin | Labor | 9,938 | 39.4 | +15.8 | 40.0 |
| Mark Twiss | Greens | 2,640 | 10.5 | -3.6 | 10.2 |
| Jim Bivoltsis | Independent | 714 | 2.8 | -1.3 | 2.6 |
| Ray Moran | Australian Christians | 394 | 1.6 | -0.5 | 1.5 |
| L Pearce | No Mandatory Vaccination | 320 | 1.3 | +1.3 | 1.3 |
| Alexandra Farsalas | WAxit | 146 | 0.6 | -0.9 | 0.6 |
| Others | 0.3 | ||||
| Informal | 650 | 2.5 |
2021 two-party-preferred result
| Candidate | Party | Votes | % | Swing | Redist |
| Christine Tonkin | Labor | 12,821 | 50.8 | +12.5 | 51.1 |
| Sean L’Estrange | Liberal | 12,413 | 49.2 | -12.5 | 48.9 |
Polling places have been split into three parts: central, east and west.
Labor won 58.5% of the two-party-preferred vote in the east. The Liberal Party won 53.1% in the west and 53.6% in the centre.
The Greens came third, with a primary vote ranging from 9.4% in the centre to 14% in the east.
| Voter group | GRN 2PP % | ALP 2PP % | Total votes | % of votes |
| Central | 9.4 | 46.4 | 4,593 | 17.4 |
| East | 14.0 | 58.5 | 3,925 | 14.9 |
| West | 11.1 | 46.9 | 2,838 | 10.8 |
| Pre-poll | 8.4 | 52.3 | 8,082 | 30.6 |
| Other votes | 10.3 | 50.6 | 6,943 | 26.3 |
Election results in Churchlands at the 2021 WA state election
Toggle between two-party-preferred votes and primary votes for Labor, the Liberal Party and the Greens.
There’s no way the result will change, same for Fremantle. At this stage of the count 400 votes is a safe margin.
Yeah, it’s gone. Basil can’t lose now
WAEC is undertaking a full distribution of preferences today. We should see is Basil wins or ends up in an absolute calamity losing a practically locked up seat.
It’s over – WAEC now has Churchlands as “Awaiting Declaration” (not “count in progress”) with Zempilas ahead.
The final swing (2.2%) remains by far the smallest swing to the L/NP in a conventional seat. Cottesloe has a swing against the Liberals but that’s with a change from a Labor to Independent challenger – and perhaps Churchlands has a similar risk even in an election where the Liberals otherwise do ok.
Basil Zempilas has been elected as the Liberal WA leader unopposed, and after the result in Kalamunda he will become the Leader of the Opposition.
Almost certain independent/teal gain in 2029 or a by-election if he resigns after a scandal. An independent/teal can just campaign on “not being Basil Zempilas” and win. Should he make it as opposition leader to 2029, Labor easily wins another term since “they’re not Basil Zempilas”.
Ian your forgetting he will benefit from incumbency and it’s 4 years until the next election at which point this govt would have been in for 12 years. Problems build up after that time.
I doubt it, Zempilas doesn’t have the maturity required to be an opposition leader. He’ll keep saying dumb things that will cost Churchlands again. The WA Liberals choosing him as leader means they don’t want to be a credible opposition and therefore wanting to win 2029. Sure, he can change for the better, but his prominent media personality means swing voters won’t forget his past.
@ian their problem is they have noone else with politcal/parliamentary experience
Basil Zempilas was a poor choice of candidate and seems to be ancient prone and could deliver the Liberals another poor result or even worse for he could be unseated.
And who would you suggest be leader. In my opinion the liberals will get close or win in 2029.
I live in Scarborough, so the seat immediately north, and I can say with confidence that Basil was a net-negative on the Liberal campaign here.
For the same reasons people are attracted to somebody like Stuart Aubrey (worked a trade/FIFO before parliament, a current renter, thereby a person the electorate can broadly relate to) people are turned off by Basil, whose only credential is being the golden child of 7West, an organisation that shepherded him to Mayor of Perth, and now WA Liberal leader just because (and only because) he’s Basil.
Call it tall poppy syndrome if you will, but he’s not anything short of a liability for the WA Liberals, who I am also far from convinced will even be competitive in 2029. I recall even the week of the state election many people saying districts like Scarborough, Darling Range, Kalgoorlie and so forth would go back to the WA Liberals this election “just because”.