ALP 3.8%
Incumbent MP
Paul Lilburne, since 2021.
- Geography
- Redistribution
- History
- Candidate summary
- Assessment
- 2021 results
- Booth breakdown
- Results maps
Geography
Northern Perth. Carine covers the suburbs of North Beach, Watermans Bay, Marmion, Carine, Duncraig and parts of Gwelup and Padbury. The seat lies on the border of Stirling and Joondalup council areas.
Redistribution
Carine lost Karrinyup to Scarborough while gaining the remainder of North Beach and part of Gwelup from Scarborough, and also gaining part of Padbury from Hillarys. These changes increased the Labor margin from 2.5% to 5.3%.
History
The seat of Carine has existed since 1996, and has always been held by the Liberal Party.
Carine was first won in 1996 by Katie Hodson-Thomas. Hodson-Thomas was re-elected in 2001 and 2005, and retired at the 2008 election.
Liberal candidate Tony Krsticevic won Carine in 2008, and was re-elected in 2013 and 2017.
Krsticevic lost in 2021 to Labor candidate Paul Lilburne.
- Lisa Hindmarsh (Greens)
- Paul Lilburne (Labor)
- Liam Staltari (Liberal)
Assessment
Labor’s hold on Carine is not strong, even with the redistribution. If there is any kind of return to normality, you’d expect Labor to lose this seat.
| Candidate | Party | Votes | % | Swing | Redist |
| Paul Lilburne | Labor | 11,993 | 44.3 | +17.1 | 45.7 |
| Tony Krsticevic | Liberal | 12,012 | 44.4 | -5.8 | 43.1 |
| Nicholas D’Alonzo | Greens | 2,369 | 8.8 | -1.7 | 8.4 |
| A Cox | No Mandatory Vaccination | 490 | 1.8 | +1.8 | 1.6 |
| Marilyn Tringas | WAxit | 197 | 0.7 | -0.7 | 0.7 |
| Others | 0.5 | ||||
| Informal | 793 | 2.8 |
2021 two-party-preferred result
| Candidate | Party | Votes | % | Swing | Redist |
| Paul Lilburne | Labor | 14,195 | 52.5 | +12.7 | 53.8 |
| Tony Krsticevic | Liberal | 12,864 | 47.5 | -12.7 | 46.2 |
Polling places have been split into three parts: north-east, north-west and south.
Labor narrowly won with just under 51% of the two-party-preferred vote in the north-west and south, and 57% in the north-east.
The Greens came third, with a vote ranging from 9.5% in the north-east to 10.9% in the south.
| Voter group | GRN prim % | ALP 2PP % | Total votes | % of votes |
| North-East | 9.7 | 57.0 | 5,234 | 19.1 |
| South | 10.9 | 50.9 | 3,666 | 13.4 |
| North-West | 9.5 | 50.8 | 2,781 | 10.2 |
| Pre-poll | 6.2 | 53.8 | 9,675 | 35.3 |
| Other votes | 8.7 | 54.1 | 6,025 | 22.0 |
Election results in Carine at the 2021 WA state election
Toggle between two-party-preferred votes and primary votes for Labor, the Liberal Party and the Greens.
If Liam Staltari wins here he’s a future Liberal leader post-Zemplias.
Carine should flip back – I don’t see an Independent running here.
another LIB gain