ALP 22.5%
Incumbent MP
Don Punch, since 2017.
Geography
Bunbury is a small seat just covering the Bunbury urban area, including Bunbury, Picton, Dalyellup, Glen Iris, College Grove, Davenport and Withers.
Redistribution
No change.
History
The seat of Bunbury has existed since 1890. The seat had been dominated since the 1950s by the Liberal Party up to 2017, but Labor has taken the seat on a number of occasions.
Labor’s Frederick Withers held Bunbury from 1924 until 1947. He was succeded by Liberal MP James Murray, who held the seat for one term until 1950. Labor’s Frank Guthrie held Bunbury from 1950 until 1955.
The Liberal Party held the seat continuously from 1955 until 1983. George Roberts represented Bunbury from 1955 until 1962, followed by Maurice Williams until 1973 and then John Sibson until 1983.
Labor’s Phil Smith won Bunbury in 1983, and held the seat for ten years until his defeat in 1993 by Liberal candidate Ian Osborne.
Osborne was re-elected in 1996, but lost in 2001 to Labor’s Tony Dean.
Dean held Bunbury for one term, and lost in 2005 to the Liberal Party’s John Castrilli. Castrilli was re-elected in 2008 and 2013, and served as a minister from 2008 until 2017.
Castrilli retired in 2017, and Labor’s Don Punch won with a massive 23% swing. Punch was re-elected in 2021.
- John Bell (Legalise Cannabis)
- Shane Myles (One Nation)
- Cameron Van Veen (Shooters, Fishers and Farmers)
- Codee-Lee Down (Nationals)
- Don Punch (Labor)
- Boyd Davey (Australian Christians)
- Patricia Perks (Greens)
- Heather Reid (Liberal)
Assessment
Labor holds this seat by a huge margin, but a closer election would see that margin cut down significantly. Bunbury is Labor’s 31st-safest seat, so if the election were to be close this seat could end up being crucial to the outcome.
| Candidate | Party | Votes | % | Swing |
| Don Punch | Labor | 14,791 | 60.5 | +16.9 |
| Matt Foreman | Liberal | 4,604 | 18.8 | -3.6 |
| Patricia Perks | Greens | 1,170 | 4.8 | -2.0 |
| Codee-Lee Down | Nationals | 1,081 | 4.4 | -9.4 |
| Gail Jones | One Nation | 656 | 2.7 | -6.2 |
| Shane Hastie | Shooters, Fishers & Farmers | 615 | 2.5 | -1.0 |
| Kelly Hibbert | Legalise Cannabis | 582 | 2.4 | +2.4 |
| Kieran Noonan | Western Australia Party | 415 | 1.7 | +1.7 |
| Anthony Merrifield | No Mandatory Vaccination | 348 | 1.4 | +1.4 |
| James Minson | Sustainable Australia | 158 | 0.6 | +0.6 |
| Dan Acatinca | WAxit | 43 | 0.2 | -0.1 |
| Informal | 1,163 | 4.5 |
2021 two-party-preferred result
| Candidate | Party | Votes | % | Swing |
| Don Punch | Labor | 17,730 | 72.5 | +12.0 |
| Matt Foreman | Liberal | 6,719 | 27.5 | -12.0 |
Polling places have been split into three parts: east, north and south.
Labor’s two-party-preferred vote ranged from 68.7% in the north to 76.3% in the south.
| Voter group | ALP 2PP % | Total votes | % of votes |
| South | 76.3 | 3,769 | 15.4 |
| North | 68.7 | 2,650 | 10.8 |
| East | 76.0 | 2,255 | 9.2 |
| Pre-poll | 71.0 | 11,075 | 45.3 |
| Other votes | 73.5 | 4,714 | 19.3 |
Election results in Bunbury at the 2021 WA state election
Toggle between two-party-preferred votes and primary votes for Labor, the Liberal Party, the Greens and the Nationals.
A good example of personal vote impact
Definitely a Liberal target.
I would say alp held unless
Mr Punch retires
Recent times narrow lib win then liberal mp gained 12% margin when he retired Labor won with a alp margin of about 12%. Last election alp won 70% 2pp
So the seat swung of 30% to Labor.
This shows the impact of personal votes here. 20% odd a long way to go for the liberals
@:mick expect that margin to be shredded next year and libs to be in running in 2029.
should return to around the 2021 result or slightly less
My prediction: Labor hold, but with a significantly reduced majority.