ALP 35.7%
Incumbent MP
Reece Whitby, since 2017.
- Geography
- Redistribution
- History
- Candidate summary
- Assessment
- 2021 results
- Booth breakdown
- Results maps
Geography
Southern coastal fringe of Perth. The seat of Baldivis covers the suburbs of Baldivis, Warnbro and parts of Cooloongup and Waikiki. The seat lies entirely within the Rockingham council area.
Redistribution
Baldivis shifted south, losing 40% of the population to Darling Range and Kwinana. Kwinana took in part of Wellard and the remainder of Leda, along with part of Baldivis. Darling Range took in areas to the east of the Kwinana Freeway. Kwinana then took in Warnbro and southern parts of Baldivis from Warnbro. These changes cutt he Labor margin from 36.9% to 35.7%.
History
Baldivis was created as a new seat in 2017, mostly taking in areas previously contained in the neighbouring seat of Kwinana. Kwinana was created as a very safe Labor seat in 2008 following the redistribution caused by the introduction of one-vote-one-value reforms.
The Labor candidate, Roger Cook, was challenged in 2008 by local mayor Carol Adams, running as an independent. Despite the presumed margin, Adams came close to defeating Cook, polling 49.2% of the two-candidate vote. Adams again challenged Cook in 2013, but Cook won with a slightly larger margin, with 52.6% of the vote after preferences.
Baldivis was won in 2017 by Labor’s Reece Whitby, who defeated independent candidate Matt Whitfield. Whitby was easily re-elected in 2021.
Assessment
Baldivis is one of Labor’s safest seats – there are just two other seats with greater margins.
| Candidate | Party | Votes | % | Swing | Redist |
| Reece Whitby | Labor | 21,130 | 79.8 | +37.0 | 79.1 |
| Luke Derrick | Liberal | 2,122 | 8.0 | -6.4 | 9.1 |
| Jody Freeman | Greens | 1,037 | 3.9 | -1.3 | 3.7 |
| Andrea Tokaji | Independent | 932 | 3.5 | +3.5 | 2.8 |
| Martin Suter | One Nation | 464 | 1.8 | -5.8 | 2.2 |
| Chaz Rizzo | No Mandatory Vaccination | 333 | 1.3 | +1.3 | 1.3 |
| David Marshall | Liberal Democrats | 321 | 1.2 | +1.2 | 1.2 |
| Brianna Eden McLernon | WAxit | 149 | 0.6 | +0.6 | 0.7 |
| Informal | 924 | 3.4 |
2021 two-party-preferred result
| Candidate | Party | Votes | % | Swing | Redist |
| Reece Whitby | Labor | 23,013 | 86.9 | +20.3 | 85.7 |
| Luke Derrick | Liberal | 3,469 | 13.1 | -20.3 | 14.3 |
Polling places have been split into three parts: east, north-west and south-west.
Labor’s two-party-preferred vote ranged from 82.8% in the south-west to 87.5% in the north-west.
| Voter group | ALP 2PP | Total votes | % of votes |
| East | 85.4 | 4,485 | 20.5 |
| South-West | 82.8 | 2,116 | 9.7 |
| North-West | 87.5 | 932 | 4.3 |
| Pre-poll | 86.6 | 9,204 | 42.0 |
| Other votes | 85.3 | 5,174 | 23.6 |
Election results in Baldivis at the 2021 WA state election
Toggle between two-party-preferred votes and primary votes for Labor, the Liberal Party and the Greens.