ALP 18.1%
Incumbent MP
Peter Tinley, since 2009.
Geography
Southern Perth. Willagee covers the suburbs of Murdoch, Coolbellup, Samson, Bibra Lake and parts of South Lake and Coogee. The seat covers parts of the Fremantle, Melville and Cockburn local government areas.
Redistribution
Willagee lost Kardinya to Bateman and gained part of Coogee from Cockburn. This change increased the Labor margin from 15.5% to 18.1%.
History
The seat of Willagee was created in 1996, and has always been held by Labor.
Labor candidate Alan Carpenter won the seat in 1996. Carpenter was re-elected in the seat in 2001, and served as a minister in the Gallop Labor government. Carpenter was elected to a third term in parliament in 2005, and became Premier and Labor leader in 2006 following Geoff Gallop’s retirement.
Carpenter led the government until 2008, when he led Labor to defeat. Carpenter resigned from parliament in 2009.
Labor candidate Peter Tinley won the 2009 Willagee by-election, and was re-elected in 2013 and 2017.
Candidates
- Barry Jones (Liberal)
- Michael Mitchell (Liberal Democrats)
- Peter Tinley (Labor)
- Susan Poole (No Mandatory Vaccination)
- Mark Dalrymple (One Nation)
- Felicity Townsend (Greens)
Assessment
Willagee is a safe Labor seat.
2017 result
| Candidate | Party | Votes | % | Swing | Redist |
| Peter Tinley | Labor | 11,229 | 52.7 | +9.8 | 55.2 |
| Rebecca Aubrey | Liberal | 6,547 | 30.7 | -13.2 | 28.1 |
| Felicity McGeorge | Greens | 2,470 | 11.6 | +0.7 | 11.3 |
| Robin Hosking | Australian Christians | 514 | 2.4 | +2.4 | 2.1 |
| Paul Potter | Micro Business | 334 | 1.6 | +1.6 | 1.5 |
| Corina Abraham | Socialist Alliance | 212 | 1.0 | +1.0 | 0.9 |
| 0.8 | |||||
| Informal | 957 | 4.3 |
2017 two-party-preferred result
| Candidate | Party | Votes | % | Swing | Redist |
| Peter Tinley | Labor | 13,948 | 65.5 | +13.0 | 68.1 |
| Rebecca Aubrey | Liberal | 7,351 | 34.5 | -13.0 | 31.9 |
Booth breakdown
Booths have been divided into four parts: central, north, south-east and south-west
Labor won a majority of the two-party-preferred vote in all four areas, ranging from 61.4% in the north to 73% in the south-east.
The Greens came third, with a primary vote ranging from 9.3% in the south-west to 12.6% in the centre.
| Voter group | GRN prim % | ALP 2PP % | Total votes | % of votes |
| Central | 12.6 | 72.4 | 4,503 | 19.8 |
| South-East | 11.6 | 73.0 | 3,407 | 15.0 |
| South-West | 9.3 | 68.5 | 2,982 | 13.1 |
| North | 10.8 | 61.4 | 2,840 | 12.5 |
| Pre-poll | 10.8 | 69.6 | 3,411 | 15.0 |
| Other votes | 11.8 | 64.1 | 5,570 | 24.5 |
Election results in Willagee at the 2017 WA state election
Toggle between two-party-preferred votes and Greens primary votes.
Would I be correct in thinking that this seat has gradually drifted south over the last few redistributions? Willagee itself is very much towards the northern end of the electorate
Prediction: Labor retain
Not gradually – that was just one redistribution, before the 2017 election. Willagee lost Melville and everything west of Stock Rd, and gained everything east of North Lake Rd and south of Phoenix Rd. Something like half the voters had been in a different seat in 2013.
Maps of the various boundaries here:
https://www.abc.net.au/news/elections/wa-election-2017/guide/will/
It almost got renamed Murdoch. Naming it after a university and major train station would’ve made plenty of sense, but they dropped it for some reason.
They dropped the renaming because it was part of their plan to rename all the seats after ‘notable figures’, which was quietly shelved after taking public comments on it.
After MP Peter Tinley announced he was quitting at the next state election. Its been reported federal MP’s Sam Lim Chief of staff Sook Yee Lai is likely to replace him.
Wrong guide, go post it here.