ALP 1.8%
Incumbent MP
Robyn Clarke, since 2017.
Geography
Southern fringe of Perth. Murray-Wellington covers rural areas between Mandurah and Bunbury.
The district covers a large area including all of Harvey Shire, all of Murray and Waroona Shires and a small part of the City of Mandurah.
Redistribution
Murray-Wellington shifted north, losing the southern edge near Bunbury to Collie-Preston, and gaining the southern tip of the City of Mandurah from Dawesville. These changes increased the Labor margin from 1.4% to 1.8%.
History
The district of Murray-Wellington has existed since 1890. The seat was originally named “Murray”, and has changed names back and forth between “Murray” and “Murray-Wellington” seven times since 1911. Most recently, Murray-Wellington was renamed Murray in 2005 and restored to its current name in 2008.
The seat was held by the Liberal Party and its predecessors for over a century with only one exception, until Labor won in 2017.
John Bradshaw won the seat for the Liberal Party in 1983. In 1989, a redistribution saw Murray-Wellington split into the separate seats of Murray and Wellington, and Bradshaw moved to Wellington.
Keith Read won the seat of Murray for the ALP in 1989, before losing to the Liberal Party’s Arthur Marshall in 1993. Marshall moved to the seat of Dawesville in 1996, and held it until his retirement in 2005.
In 1996, Bradshaw moved back to Murray-Wellington, and held it until his retirement in 2005.
Murray Cowper won Murray in 2005. Cowper was elected to the renamed seat of Murray-Wellington in 2008, and he was re-elected in 2013.
Cowper lost Murray-Wellington in 2017, thanks to a swing of over 13% to Labor candidate Robyn Clarke.
Candidates
- Shaun Carney (Independent)
- Mark McCall (Shooters, Fishers and Farmers)
- Michelle Boylan (Liberal)
- Bernie Wansbrough (One Nation)
- Andrew Brown (Sustainable Australia)
- Dinko Golem (Waxit)
- Jayden Staszewski (Liberal Democrats)
- Vince Puccio (Greens)
- Robyn Clarke (Labor)
- Aimee Herriot (No Mandatory Vaccination)
- Leonie Lemmey (Nationals)
Assessment
Murray-Wellington was a typical safe Liberal seat prior to the 2017 landslide. Labor would be expected to have a challenge on their hands to hold on, but the personal vote of their sitting MP should come in handy, as will the overall strong polling position for Labor.
2017 result
| Candidate | Party | Votes | % | Swing | Redist |
| Robyn Clarke | Labor | 8,484 | 36.1 | +7.9 | 36.8 |
| Murray Cowper | Liberal | 6,910 | 29.4 | -20.5 | 29.6 |
| Ross Slater | One Nation | 2,652 | 11.3 | +11.3 | 11.5 |
| Paul Gillett | Nationals | 2,628 | 11.2 | -0.2 | 10.1 |
| Mark McCall | Shooters, Fishers & Farmers | 1,516 | 6.4 | +6.4 | 6.2 |
| Callum Burwood | Greens | 1,061 | 4.5 | -1.1 | 4.3 |
| Daniel Radley | Flux | 274 | 1.2 | +1.2 | 1.1 |
| 0.4 | |||||
| Informal | 1,275 | 5.1 |
2017 two-party-preferred result
| Candidate | Party | Votes | % | Swing | Redist |
| Robyn Clarke | Labor | 12,082 | 51.4 | +13.4 | 51.8 |
| Murray Cowper | Liberal | 11,430 | 48.6 | -13.4 | 48.2 |
Booth breakdown
Booths have been divided into three parts: central, north and south.
Labor won a majority of the two-party-preferred vote in the north (52.4%) and the south (53.4%) while the Liberal Party won 51.4% in the centre.
One Nation came third, with a vote ranging from 9.4% in the centre to 10.9% in the north.
The Nationals came fourth, with their vote peaking at over 16% in the south.
| Voter group | ON prim % | NAT prim % | ALP 2PP % | Total votes | % of votes |
| North | 10.9 | 6.1 | 52.4 | 5,433 | 23.1 |
| South | 10.3 | 16.6 | 53.4 | 4,893 | 20.8 |
| Central | 9.4 | 11.5 | 48.6 | 3,972 | 16.9 |
| Other votes | 12.3 | 8.8 | 51.4 | 4,671 | 19.9 |
| Pre-poll | 14.4 | 8.3 | 52.3 | 4,513 | 19.2 |
Election results in Murray-Wellington at the 2017 WA state election
Toggle between two-party-preferred votes, One Nation primary votes and Nationals primary votes.
This seat was a shock win for Labor on election night in 2017. It was reported that the then Labor candidate Robyn Clarke before the election was told not to bother taking time off work to campaign because she wouldn’t have a chance in winning. You get the sense that this is the type of seat not if but when it will come back to the Liberals. You would have to suspect it won’t be this election though, with Mark McGowan unpreceded popularity and the Liberals still playing defense in some of the seats they want to retain.
Labor favorites to retain because of sophomore surge, and the ultra strong polling. But if the Liberals surprise everyone by picking up seats off Labor then this is one would be circled as likely to fall.
Clarke will need to maintain, and possibly improve her primary vote to withstand the Liberals on preferences. IF Shooters, Fishers & Farmers preference Labor it could be a deciding factor in this seat.
Hey Ben, typo alert: Maroondah is in Melbourne. Mandurah is half an hour’s drive from Waroona (which rhymes with Maroondah). 😛