ALP 21.0%
Incumbent MP
Roger Cook, since 2008.
Geography
Southern fringe of Perth. This seat covers northern parts of Kwinana local government area, including the suburbs of Medina, Calista, Leda, Parmelia and Orelia.
The seat also includes southern parts of Canning council area, including Aubin Grove, Hammond Park and Henderson.
Redistribution
Kwinana lost Atwell to Cockburn and gained Bertram from Baldivis and a small area from Darling Range. These changes increased the Labor margin from 18.1% to 21%.
History
Kwinana was created as a very safe Labor seat in 2008 following the redistribution caused by the introduction of one-vote-one-value reforms.
The Labor candidate, Roger Cook, was challenged by local mayor Carol Adams, running as an independent. Despite the presumed margin, Adams came close to defeating Cook, polling 49.2% of the two-candidate vote. Adams again challenged Cook in 2013, but Cook won with a slightly larger margin, with 52.6% of the vote after preferences.
Candidates
- Steven Summerell (One Nation)
- Christopher Burnet (Waxit)
- Bianca Talbot (Liberal)
- Venkat Devarapalli (Western Australia Party)
- Lauren Rickert (Greens)
- Chris Vellnagel (Liberal Democrats)
- Roger Cook (Labor)
- Connie Portelli (No Mandatory Vaccination)
Assessment
Kwinana is a safe Labor seat.
2017 result
| Candidate | Party | Votes | % | Swing | Redist |
| Roger Cook | Labor | 11,592 | 55.4 | +14.4 | 58.0 |
| Bianca Talbot | Liberal | 4,824 | 23.0 | -13.1 | 19.5 |
| Tim Taylor | One Nation | 1,968 | 9.4 | +9.4 | 9.3 |
| Jody Freeman | Greens | 1,742 | 8.3 | +1.6 | 8.1 |
| Eleanor Morel | Australian Christians | 516 | 2.5 | +1.6 | 2.5 |
| Joshua Hyde | Micro Business | 298 | 1.4 | +1.4 | 1.6 |
| 0.9 | |||||
| Informal | 1,078 | 4.9 |
2017 two-party-preferred result
| Candidate | Party | Votes | % | Swing | Redist |
| Roger Cook | Labor | 14,251 | 68.1 | +13.7 | 71.0 |
| Bianca Talbot | Liberal | 6,683 | 31.9 | -13.7 | 29.0 |
Booth breakdown
Booths have been divided into three parts: west, north-east and south-east.
Labor won a majority of the two-party-preferred vote in the north-east and south-east, ranging from 52% to almost 56%, while the Liberal Party won 52.6% in the west.
| Voter group | ALP 2PP % | Total votes | % of votes |
| South-West | 80.3 | 5,146 | 25.0 |
| North | 57.4 | 3,901 | 18.9 |
| South-East | 73.6 | 3,762 | 18.3 |
| Pre-poll | 74.1 | 3,185 | 15.5 |
| Other votes | 70.7 | 4,594 | 22.3 |
Two-party-preferred votes in Kwinana at the 2017 WA state election
I don’t understand, Someone from WA help me understand this. Supposedly Amber-Jade Sanderspon had the numbers in the party room, but pulled out last minute? I don’t get it, if you have the number for the top job regardless of how the unions or party member outside parliament feel (Labor seems to care way too much about the unions and they don’t realize the coalition always plays on it hard when Labor gets too close and it is often successful on their end)
If WA Labor shifts to the left (They may think just because they have a massive majority they automatically think they win 2025, it doesn’t work like that, Ask Campbell Newman)
Doing the unions bidding/appeasing them may come to haunt Labor at a future date and may cost them crucial support in many area’s seats. Before McGowan announced he was quitting, Labor was looking at holding power until 2033, but now it will likely be 2029. Labor needs someone who can hold the Centre mantle for a long time and keep the opposition in disarray. By choosing someone who has strong ties to the unions and the left of the party, they risk losing more than they should in 2025, It may help them hold their seats against the Greens, but not against the Liberals.
Labor is at risk of being reduced to a small majority of 32-35 seats, which would be a disaster for them, A good result is Labor having their seat count around 39-42 around the same as 2017, but now based on what I’ve wrote which I base it off of what I read on the ABC (Correct me if I’m wrong on any points) they risk narrowly winning next time with only 52-53% TPP. That would be a RECORD swing to the opposition of 17%.
Sanderson had majority (but not the entire) support of the caucus representing the UWU, whereas Cook had the universal support of the AMWU, both are the largest unions which make up the left faction of which Cook and Sanderson are apart – Cook had the majority support of the Left, which itself is the majority of the Labor caucus.
Saffioti seemed to have been courting right & unaligned members (which combined are not a majority of the partyroom but a significant chunk) to act as a kingmaker, which she did in exchange for the role of treasurer & deputy, this sets her up to be Cooks natural successor down the track, she will be the premier after Cook and probably lead in 33, which will be the next competitive election.
Labor will easily win in 2025, even the most cope addicted Liberals acknowledge this, and Labor have done an excellent job at future-proofing their majority by nominating candidates who are popular in their (marginal) electorates, we all know of Sam Lim the Dolphin Trainer in Tangney, but in state they have an electrician in Scarborough, a paramedic in Dawesville – whereas the Liberals seem to be courting none other than Basil Zempalis to be a future leader, I don’t see them exceeding even their abysmal 2017 performance.
Where McGowans absence makes the ultimate difference is in the upper house, it’s a lot harder to rely on the personal vote of particular MLC’s, especially in a state-wide district, but it’s also where more minor parties run and thus it’s harder to assume the Liberals would magically absorb most of the lost Labor vote.
Policywise, wait and see, the state is not Queensland conservative. If Cook continues the states winning streak of just being better off relative to the other states (by metrics of budget performance, energy prices, not trying to privatize the air etc.), he can continue to fall back on the “look over there” attitude which McGowan governed under, and was rewarded for.