LIB 21.2%
Incumbent MP
Libby Mettam, since 2014.
Geography
South-western Western Australia. Vasse covers the town of Busselton and surrounding areas. Vasse covers the entirety of the Busselton council area, and northern parts of the Augusta-Margaret River council area. The electorate’s southern border runs close to the town of Margaret River but does not actually cover the town.
Redistribution
Most of Vasse’s boundaries were steady, but Vasse contracted slightly in the area near Margaret River.
History
The electorate of Vasse has existed since 1950, and has been won by the Liberal Party at every election in its history. The seat was first won in 1950 by the Liberal and Country League’s William Bovell in 1950. The LCL was the state branch of the Liberal Party, and was renamed as the ‘Liberal Party’ in 1968.
Bovell retired in 1971, and was succeeded by Barry Blaikie. Blaikie held Vasse as a Liberal MP from 1971 to 1996.
Bernie Masters won Vasse in 1996, and was re-elected in 2001. After the Liberal Party lost power in 2001, Masters joined the opposition frontbench.
In 2004, Masters was defeated for Liberal preselection by Busselton Shire President Troy Buswell. Masters resigned from the Liberal Party and served his final year as an independent. In 2005, Buswell defeated Masters, running as an independent.
Buswell was elected deputy leader of the Liberal Party in October 2005, after only eight months in Parliament.
Buswell was elected Leader of the Liberal Party in January 2008, after challenging then-leader Paul Omodei.
Buswell’s short tenure as Opposition Leader was marred by controversy, with a number of examples of embarrassing behaviour emerging. He resigned as Liberal leader in August 2008, and was replaced by former leader Colin Barnett. An early election was called by Labor Premier Alan Carpenter shortly after Barnett resumed the Liberal leadership, and in September 2008 the Liberal Party and National Party won the election.
Buswell served as Treasurer in the new government until early 2010, when he moved to the backbench due to a sex scandal involving another MP.
In December 2010, Buswell returned to the cabinet, and was reappointed Treasurer in July 2012.
He was re-elected to a third term in Vasse in March 2013. In March 2014, Buswell resigned as Treasurer after revealing that he suffers from bipolar disorder, and had suffered a breakdown. In September 2014 he resigned from Parliament.
The 2014 Vasse by-election was won by Liberal candidate Libby Mettam.
Candidates
- Luke O’Connell (Greens)
- Libby Mettam (Liberal)
- Peter Gordon (Nationals)
- Wes Hartley (Labor)
Assessment
Vasse is a very safe Liberal seat.
2013 result
| Candidate | Party | Votes | % | Swing | Redist |
| Troy Buswell | Liberal | 11,593 | 57.3 | -4.1 | 57.3 |
| Lee Edmundson | Labor | 2,501 | 12.4 | -8.3 | 12.4 |
| Michael Baldock | Greens | 2,026 | 10.0 | -5.6 | 10.0 |
| Bernie Masters | Independent | 1,624 | 8.0 | +8.0 | 8.0 |
| James Wishart | Nationals | 1,474 | 7.3 | +7.3 | 7.3 |
| Gary Norden | Independent | 601 | 3.0 | +3.0 | 3.0 |
| Julie Westbrook | Family First | 412 | 2.0 | +2.0 | 2.0 |
| Informal | 848 | 4.0 |
2013 two-party-preferred result
| Candidate | Party | Votes | % | Swing | Redist |
| Troy Buswell | Liberal | 14,396 | 71.2 | +3.4 | 71.2 |
| Lee Edmundson | Labor | 5,822 | 28.8 | -3.4 | 28.8 |
2014 by-election result
| Candidate | Party | Votes | % | Swing |
| Libby Mettam | Liberal | 11,700 | 56.0 | 0.2 |
| Peter Gordon | Nationals | 5,656 | 28.5 | +21.2 |
| Michael Baldock | Greens | 3,567 | 18.0 | +7.9 |
| Peter Johnson | Independent | 873 | 4.4 | +4.4 |
| Wayne Barnett | Australian Christians | 686 | 3.5 | +3.5 |
| Teresa Van Lieshout | Independent | 274 | 1.4 | +1.4 |
| Informal | 569 | 2.8 |
2014 by-election two-party-preferred result
| Candidate | Party | Votes | % |
| Libby Mettam | Liberal | 10,520 | 53.0 |
| Peter Gordon | Nationals | 9,328 | 47.0 |
Booth breakdown
Booths have been divided into three parts: Busselton, north and south.
The Liberal Party’s two-party-preferred vote at the general election ranged from 65% in the south to 72% in Busselton.
At the by-election, the Liberal Party topped the primary vote in all three areas, peaking in the north, while the Nationals came second in two out of three areas, with their highest vote in Busselton. The Greens did particularly well in the low-population south.
2013 election booth breakdown
| Voter group | LIB 2PP % | Total votes | % of votes |
| Busselton | 71.9 | 8,529 | 42.2 |
| North | 70.8 | 5,929 | 29.4 |
| South | 65.4 | 1,076 | 5.3 |
| Other votes | 70.1 | 2,676 | 13.2 |
| Pre-poll | 74.2 | 1,988 | 9.8 |
2014 by-election booth breakdown
| Voter group | LIB % | NAT % | GRN % | Total votes | % of votes |
| North | 42.7 | 26.5 | 20.9 | 7,173 | 36.1 |
| Busselton | 41.2 | 31.5 | 16.1 | 5,176 | 26.1 |
| South | 39.3 | 26.0 | 29.7 | 1,098 | 5.5 |
| Other votes | 49.5 | 28.7 | 14.2 | 6,414 | 32.3 |
Election results in Vasse at the 2013 WA state election
Click on the ‘visible layers’ box to toggle between two-party-preferred votes and Greens primary votes.
Election results at the 2014 Vasse by-election
Click on the ‘visible layers’ box to toggle between Liberal, Nationals and Greens primary votes.
Should be an easy Lib hold, the Nats could continue to be an influence. I’d also expect the Greens to go alright, their numbers at the Federal election didn’t differ a lot from the by election numbers in their stronger booths such as Cowaramup (25.2%), Dunsborough (17.5%), Yallingup (27.9%) and Rosa Brook (23.4%).
The by-election table has Kim Hames and his votes from Dawesville 2013.
Should be an easy retain for the Liberals, the only question is who will join them in the final 2PP calculation – Greens, Labor, and Nationals all seem in with a shot. I would tip Labor to sneak through on Greens preferences, but it’s a bit of a toss-up. Lot of tree-changers and alternative-types in the electorate, so Greens vote is likely to continue to be at 15–20% (particularly if Michael Baldock runs for a third time).
There’s an error in the results table for the 2014 by-election – you’ve currently got Libby Mettam at 56% on first preferences and 53% on 2CP, so something’s gone awry.
Michael Baldock is running for Bunbury. The Greens candidate is Luke O’Connell, a Busselton local.
Maybe the one place the Greens vote will definitely trend upwards compared to their statewide average. Such a safe Buswell’s Buddies seat. NOR’ers home away from home after all.