LIB 2.7%
Incumbent MP
Eleni Evangel, since 2013.
Geography
Central Perth. The seat of Perth covers the Perth CBD and areas to the north. The seat covers most of Perth and Vincent local council areas, including the suburbs of West Perth, Mt Hawthorn, North Perth, Leederville, Highgate, Northbridge and parts of East Perth.
Redistribution
Perth lost a small area in the north-east of the electorate to Mount Lawley.
History
Perth existed as a seat from 1890 to 1950 and again since 1962. The seat had been won by the ALP at every election from 1968 until 2013, and has only lost the seat at two elections since the 1930s.
The seat was won by the Liberal Party’s Peter Durack in 1965. He lost the seat in 1968. He then went on to win a Senate seat in 1970. He served as federal Attorney-General from 1977 to 1983, and retired in 1993 after losing preselection.
Durack was defeated in 1968 by Terry Burke, son of former federal MP Tom Burke and older brother of Brian Burke. Brian Burke led the ALP to power in 1983, and served as premier until 1988.
Terry Burke held Perth for nineteen years, and resigned in 1987.
The 1987 by-election was won by Ian Alexander. He resigned from the ALP in 1991 during his second term and finished his term as an independent.
Diana Warnock won in 1993, and served two terms until 2001.
Labor’s John Hyde held Perth from 2001 until 2013, when he lost the seat to Liberal candidate Eleni Evangel with a swing of over 10%.
Candidates
- John Carey (Labor)
- Ben Ballingall (Flux)
- Matt Hanson (Animal Justice)
- Hannah Milligan (Greens)
- Ian Molyneux (Julie Matheson for WA)
- Archie Hyde (Micro Business Party)
- Ken Lim (Australian Christians)
- Eleni Evangel (Liberal)
Assessment
Perth is a very marginal seat, which was a traditional Labor seat prior to the election. If there is a significant swing towards Labor, they will likely regain the seat.
2013 result
| Candidate | Party | Votes | % | Swing | Redist |
| Eleni Evangel | Liberal | 10,318 | 48.6 | +12.0 | 48.8 |
| John Hyde | Labor | 7,666 | 36.1 | -4.8 | 36.0 |
| Jonathan Hallett | Greens | 2,706 | 12.8 | -6.6 | 12.8 |
| Kevin Host | Australian Christians | 324 | 1.5 | -1.5 | 1.5 |
| Farida Iqbal | Independent | 198 | 0.9 | +0.9 | 0.9 |
| Informal | 1,300 | 5.8 |
2013 two-party-preferred result
| Candidate | Party | Votes | % | Swing | Redist |
| Eleni Evangel | Liberal | 11,165 | 52.6 | +10.4 | 52.7 |
| John Hyde | Labor | 10,045 | 47.4 | -10.4 | 47.3 |
Booth breakdown
Booths have been divided into three parts: central, north and south.
The Liberal Party won a large majority of the vote in the southern end of the electorate, and narrowly won in the north, while Labor won over 55% in the centre.
The Greens vote ranged from 9% in the south to over 14% in the centre.
| Voter group | GRN % | LIB 2PP % | Total votes | % of votes |
| North | 12.7 | 50.7 | 6,343 | 31.3 |
| Central | 14.3 | 44.9 | 5,317 | 26.3 |
| South | 9.3 | 63.4 | 3,400 | 16.8 |
| Pre-poll | 12.4 | 59.4 | 1,461 | 7.2 |
| Other votes | 14.1 | 55.0 | 3,726 | 18.4 |
Election results in Perth at the 2013 WA state election
Click on the ‘visible layers’ box to toggle between two-party-preferred votes and Greens primary votes.
Labor will win Perth if the swing against the Government is on however the increasing number of higher-income earners living in the City of Perth has changed the dynamics of this electorate making it now only a Labor-leaning seat.
Labor should win this back quite easily, and the Greens should go back to around 16-18%. However in the future could become far more Liberal leaning.
“The seat had been won by the ALP at every election from 1968 until 2013, and has only lost the seat at two elections since the 1930s.” What is it about election commentators and syntax? Antony Green writes sentences like this all the time – perhaps you picked it up from him?
Ctrl C Ctrl V is what it’s all about. (Especially when reusing guides for multiple elections in a state you aren’t from.)
I live near the big red 60, and I’ve had more junk mail for local govt elections than the state one. John Carey used to be the mayor of Vincent, but he quit that to run for the state seat (most mayors do that round here). He’ll win. Meanwhile, Laine McDonald quit the council to be a benchwarmer for Alannah MacTiernan (see what I mean about mayors?) in the upper house, so there’s a pair of by-elections for the mayor and South Ward. (They’re non-compulsory postal votes, so a pretty low priority. If it gets interesting I might post more about it.)
The Libs sent the same “important postal vote information” letter from the same PO Box in Bassendean they used at the federal election. The insert was your typical Laura Norder crap; since council amalgamations got squashed, Evangel hasn’t had much to differentiate herself from her party. She’ll lose.
A ReachTEL seat poll has Labor ahead 59-41 here off a sample of 611.
Evangel is VERY snakey about the Lib/One Nation preference deal. It doesn’t help her as there’s no One Nation candidate in Perth, and as she has more migrants in her seat than any other Lib MP (I think), any association with One Nation is particularly harmful to her.
I wouldn’t be surprised to see a swing above 10% here – it’s basically a reversal of 2013. Same goes for most of the other seats Reachtel polled.
Did they take primary votes in that poll as well? Interested in the Greens. They had some excellent results here during the federal election (29.4% in Northbridge, 26.3% in Leederville), and if the swing is against Liberals rather than towards Labor the Greens could pick up the vote instead.
Even if they do really well both major parties poll quite highly and are close to each other, so they probably aren’t in contention (same issue as Fremantle). Still, one to watch.
@John
The West Australian report today did not mention any party votes other than to say that the Greens were polling below 10% in all the marginal seats they last surveyed except for Perth.
Vincent by-elections, for anyone who cares…
Mayor: Emma Cole (Carey-backed) won with 79% of the vote, almost as good as Carey got two years ago.
South ward: Jonathan Hallett won with a tick under 30% of the vote. Mai Nguyen (Carey-backed, the only other one I got fliers from) came second with 25%. Four others got the rest – the two Liberal-ish ones got about 20% between them.
Local govt is officially non-partisan in WA, but Cole is a Labor member and Hallett is a Green who’s run for them a couple of times before (including Perth in 2013). Good omens for both parties, I guess.