NAT 9.6% vs LIB
Incumbent MP
Vince Catania, since 2013. Previously Member for Mining and Pastoral in the Legislative Council 2005-2008, Member for North West 2008-2013.
Geography
North West Central covers northern parts of Western Australia, south of the Pilbara region. The largest town is Carnarvon, and the seat also covers Denham, Exmouth, Meekatharra, Paraburdoo and Tom Price.
Redistribution
North West Central gained Ngaanyatjarraku council area from Kalgoorlie, which increased the Nationals margin from 9.3% to 9.6%.
History
Seats in the north west of the state have changed names and boundaries and it is difficult to identify a single predecessor to North West Central.
The current seat was formed in 2005 as North West Coastal from parts of the abolished seats of Burrup and Ningaloo. Both seats had existed since 1996.
Burrup was held over those nine years by the ALP’s Fred Riebeling, and Ningaloo was held by Rod Sweetman for the Liberal Party.
In 2005, Riebeling ran for the ALP in North West Coastal while Sweetman was unsuccessful in finding a seat elsewhere for either the Liberal Party or Family First. Riebeling won the seat despite a small swing to the Liberal Party.
In 2008, Riebeling retired and the ALP ran Vince Catania, who had served one term in the Legislative Council. Sweetman returned to run for the Liberals. The seat was renamed to North West after more areas further from the coast were added to the seat.
Catania won with no swing against him, despite only polling 36% of the vote, and the combined vote for the Liberal and National candidates almost reaching 49%. The Liberal candidate came second, with the Nationals a close third.
Catania resigned from the ALP and joined the Nationals in 2009, and he was re-elected to represent the renamed seat of North West Central in 2013.
Candidates
- Shane Hill (Labor)
- Vince Catania (Nationals)
- Dane Sorensen (One Nation)
- Carol Green (Greens)
- Sandy Davies (Independent)
- Julee Westcott (Liberal)
- Angela Hooper (Micro Business Party)
- Adrian D’Cunha (Flux)
Assessment
North West Central is reasonably safe for the Nationals.
2013 result
| Candidate | Party | Votes | % | Swing | Redist |
| Vince Catania | Nationals | 3,175 | 43.7 | +21.4 | 43.4 |
| Tami Maitre | Liberal | 2,114 | 29.1 | -0.4 | 29.4 |
| Jennifer Shelton | Labor | 1,523 | 21.0 | -11.9 | 21.0 |
| Des Pike | Greens | 364 | 5.0 | -0.9 | 5.0 |
| Andrew Eddison | Australian Christians | 86 | 1.2 | +1.2 | 1.2 |
| Informal | 454 | 5.9 |
2013 two-candidate-preferred result
| Candidate | Party | Votes | % | Swing | Redist |
| Vince Catania | Nationals | 4,334 | 59.7 | 59.6 | |
| Tami Maitre | Liberal | 2,925 | 40.3 | 40.4 |
2013 two-party-preferred result
| Candidate | Party | Votes | % | Swing | Redist |
| Tami Maitre | Liberal | 4,611 | 63.5 | +10.2 | 63.5 |
| Jennifer Shelton | Labor | 2,649 | 36.5 | -10.2 | 36.5 |
Booth breakdown
Booths have been divided into four parts. Polling places in the town of Carnarvon have been grouped together, with the remainder divided between east, north and south.
The Nationals won the two-candidate-preferred vote over the Liberal Party in all four areas, ranging from 55% in the east to 67% in the south.
The Labor candidate came third, with a vote ranging from 16% in the east to 22.6% in the north.
| Voter group | ALP % | NAT 2CP % | Total votes | % of votes |
| North | 22.6 | 61.4 | 2,467 | 32.9 |
| Carnarvon | 19.4 | 60.5 | 1,782 | 23.8 |
| South | 22.3 | 66.8 | 556 | 7.4 |
| East | 15.8 | 55.3 | 379 | 5.1 |
| Pre-poll | 23.4 | 56.8 | 538 | 7.2 |
| Other votes | 20.4 | 56.6 | 1,773 | 23.7 |
Election results in North West Central at the 2013 WA state election
Click on the ‘visible layers’ box to toggle between two-candidate-preferred votes (Nationals vs Liberal) and Labor primary votes.
Amazing to see Labor running third here. Catania had obviously sniffed the political winds.
possible Alp win
Fun fact about this redistribution: notice how there aren’t actually any polling places in the new bit (the shire of Ngaanyatjarraku)? It’s mostly uninhabited desert with 1400 people spread across an area twice the size of Tasmania, maybe half of whom would be on the roll (they would vote at a mobile booth). Meanwhile, thanks to the large district allowance, 160,000 sq km of land = 2400 “ghost” electors. Redistributions get weird when area counts for people.
David – it’s all about the redistribution. While most of the physical area of Catania’s original seat is still in this seat, the major population center at Karratha was shifted out, and that certainly would have been the ALP stronghold in the old seat of North West.
It looks to me like Karratha’s population has at least partially been replaced by phantom “Large District Allowance” people.
If the Nat primary vote collapses in the Mining region on the back of Grylls brainfart about mining taxes (a brain fart in that he represents the electorate of Pilbara, where it had a fair chance of being unpopular) could see a lot of the Nat vote in towns like Paraburdoo and Tom Price shift back to the ALP, but possibly to the Libs, in which case Catania could be in trouble (I’m sure a few people in the ALP would laugh if he lost his seat whatever way).
The strength of the vote in Carnarvon will mean the ALP can’t realistically expect to get anywhere much in this seat.