Mount Lawley – WA 2017

LIB 9.0%

Incumbent MP
Michael Sutherland, since 2008.

Geography
Inner north-eastern Perth. Mount Lawley is part of the Eastern Metropolitan region for the Legislative Council, and lies immediately to the north of the Perth CBD. Most of Mount Lawley lies in the southeastern corner of Stirling local government area.

The remainder of the seat lies in Bayswater and Vincent council areas. The seat covers the suburbs of Yokine, Coolbinia, Menora and parts of Mount Lawley, Dianella, Morley and East Perth.

Redistribution
Mount Lawley shifted slightly to the south, losing the remainder of Inglewood to Maylands and gained a small area from Perth. These changes cut the Liberal margin from 9.4% to 9%.

History
The seat of Mount Lawley previously existed from 1950 to 1989, but was only restored at the last election in 2008. The seat has always been held by Liberals, with the exception of two terms when it was won by an independent Liberal.

Mount Lawley was held from 1962 to 1984 by Ray O’Connor. He briefly served as Premier from the retirement of Charles Court in 1982 until the ALP won government in 1983. He resigned in 1984, and the by-election was won by George Cash.

When Mount Lawley was abolished in 1989, Cash moved to the Legislative Council, where he served until his retirement in 2008.

The new seat of Mount Lawley largely replaced the seat of Yokine, which was abolished in 2008. That seat had been held by Labor MP Bob Kucera since 2001. Kucera was refused preselection in 2008 and finished his term as an independent.

In 2008, Mount Lawley was won by Liberal candidate Michael Sutherland. Sutherland was a Perth city councillor, and previously had served as a Johannesburg city councillor in the 1980s before moving to Australia. Sutherland was re-elected in 2013.

Candidates

Assessment
Mount Lawley has traditionally been a Liberal seat, but it will be in play in 2017. If the current polling plays out in a uniform swing, Mount Lawley will be extremely close, and it is one of the ten most marginal Liberal seats which Labor will need to gain to form government.

2013 result

Candidate Party Votes % Swing Redist
Michael Sutherland Liberal 11,537 54.5 +9.6 54.1
Bob Kucera Labor 6,888 32.6 -2.8 32.8
Tim Clifford Greens 2,086 9.9 -3.6 10.0
Paul Connelly Australian Christians 452 2.1 -0.8 2.2
Dave Bolt Family First 187 0.9 -0.6 0.8
Others 0.1
Informal 1,446 6.4

2013 two-party-preferred result

Candidate Party Votes % Swing Redist
Michael Sutherland Liberal 12,551 59.4 +7.7 59.0
Bob Kucera Labor 8,594 40.6 -7.7 41.0

Booth breakdown

Booths have been divided into three parts: north, south and west.

The Liberal Party’s vote after preferences ranged from 56.6% in the north to 60% in the west. The Greens came third, with a vote ranging from 7.4% in the north to 11.5% in the south.

Voter group GRN % LIB 2PP % Total votes % of votes
South 11.5 58.7 6,142 28.1
North 7.4 56.6 5,017 22.9
West 9.7 60.2 4,895 22.4
Pre-poll 10.7 63.0 977 4.5
Other votes 10.8 59.6 4,863 22.2

Election results in Mount Lawley at the 2013 WA state election
Click on the ‘visible layers’ box to toggle between two-party-preferred votes and Greens primary votes.

2 COMMENTS

  1. This will need to be a seat Labor gains if they are to form government and should be line ball come election night. The Greens should have a reasonable swing in the Mt Lawley area but their vote in the other parts of the electorate probably won’t be great, their preferences as usual will be essential for Labor to usurp the Liberals, although not as important compared to the neighbouring seats of Perth and Maylands where they could really make things interesting.

LEAVE A REPLY

Please enter your comment!
Please enter your name here