NAT 4.1% vs LIB
Incumbent MP
Wendy Duncan, since 2013. Previously member of the Legislative Council for Agricultural 2008-2009 and member for Mining and Pastoral 2009-2013.
Geography
South-eastern Western Australia. Most of the seat’s population is contained in the Kalgoorlie urban area, while the seat also covers the Coolgardie, Dundas, Kalgoorlie/Boulder, Menzies, Laverton, Leonora and Ngaanyatjarraku council areas.
Redistribution
Kalgoorlie shifted south, losing Ngaanyatjarraku council area to North West Central, and gaining Coolgardie, Dundas and the remainder of Kalgoorlie/Boulder council areas from Eyre. These changes cut the Nationals margin from 6.3% to 4.1%.
History
Kalgoorlie has existed continuously as a seat since 1904, and in that time has been dominated by Labor MPs. The seat was held by Labor continuously from 1923 to 2001.
In 2001, Labor MP Megan Anwyl was defeated by the Liberal Party’s Matt Birney.
Birney was re-elected in 2005, and became Liberal leader following the election. He only led the party for one year, before being challenged by Paul Omodei in 2006 and moving to the backbench.
Birney retired in 2008. A redistribution saw the seat of Murchison-Eyre merged into another seat, and the sitting MP for Murchison-Eyre, John Bowler, ran for Kalgoorlie as an independent. Bowler had been elected twice as a Labor member and served in Alan Carpenter’s cabinet but had since moved to the crossbenches.
At the 2008 election, the ALP dropped to fourth place behind a strong performance by Nationals’ candidate Tony Crook (now federal Member for O’Connor). Bowler came first on primary votes, and defeated Crook by 3.6% after preferences. Crook had only come third on primary votes but overtook the Liberal thanks to Labor preferences.
Bowler retired in 2013, and the seat was won by Nationals candidate Wendy Duncan.
Candidates
Sitting Nationals MP Wendy Duncan is not running for re-election.
- Kyran O’Donnell (Liberal)
- Tony Crook (Nationals)
- Richard Bolton (One Nation)
- Jacqueline Spurling (Greens)
- Mike Lucas (Shooters, Fishers and Farmers)
- Darren Forster (Labor)
- James Erwin (Flux)
Assessment
Kalgoorlie will be a contest between the Nationals and the Liberal Party, and the result is not clear. Crook has a higher profile as a former federal MP, but the result may depend on who gains Labor preferences.
2013 result
| Candidate | Party | Votes | % | Swing | Redist |
| Melissa Price | Liberal | 3,748 | 37.3 | +12.6 | 38.1 |
| Wendy Duncan | Nationals | 3,717 | 37.0 | +18.0 | 35.3 |
| Terrence Winner | Labor | 1,928 | 19.2 | +1.6 | 19.2 |
| Tim Hall | Greens | 450 | 4.5 | 0.0 | 5.0 |
| Ross Patterson | Australian Christians | 202 | 2.0 | +2.0 | 2.3 |
| Informal | 602 | 5.7 |
2013 two-candidate-preferred result
| Candidate | Party | Votes | % | Swing | Redist |
| Wendy Duncan | Nationals | 5,651 | 56.3 | +7.1 | 53.2 |
| Melissa Price | Liberal | 4,379 | 43.7 | -7.1 | 46.8 |
2013 two-party-preferred result
| Candidate | Party | Votes | % | Swing | Redist |
| Melissa Price | Liberal | 6,715 | 66.9 | +7.1 | 66.8 |
| Terrence Winner | Labor | 3,324 | 33.1 | -7.1 | 33.2 |
Booth breakdown
Booths have been divided into three parts. Polling places in the town of Kalgoorlie, which make up a vast majority of the seat’s population, have been grouped together, and the remainder have been split into north and south.
The Nationals won almost 55% of the two-candidate-preferred vote (vs the Liberals) in Kalgoorlie, 54.4% in the south and 63% in the north. Labor came third, with a vote ranging from 24.7% in the north to 18% in Kalgoorlie.
| Voter group | ALP % | NAT 2CP % | Total votes | % of votes |
| Kalgoorlie | 17.9 | 54.7 | 7,999 | 55.8 |
| South | 23.6 | 54.4 | 1,189 | 8.3 |
| North | 24.7 | 63.0 | 489 | 3.4 |
| Pre-poll | 17.9 | 52.8 | 1,724 | 12.0 |
| Other votes | 21.0 | 51.5 | 2,943 | 20.5 |
Election results in Kalgoorlie at the 2013 WA state election
Click on the ‘visible layers’ box to toggle between two-candidate-preferred votes (Nationals vs Liberal) and Labor primary votes.
The decline of the Labor vote in the Goldfields has been remarkable.
Yes Kalgoorlie was very much an old school Labor seat, Graeme Campbell was the Labor member for the Federal seat of Kalgoorle before his expulsion from the ALP after which he founded the socially conservative and economic protectionist Australia First Party
I expect a big One Nation vote in the Mining and Pastoral region, I would not be surprised to see them win in Kalgoorlie or in another of the seats in this region.
This could get quite interesting, I’d expect this to be One Nation’s best lower house seat. Although that being said Crook will have a significant advantage being a former Federal MP. This will be one to watch come election night.
I would expect One Nation to poll 15–25% here, and almost certainly knock Labor into fourth place. It’s possible they could even outpoll the Liberals on first preferences, but it seems unlikely they would get through to the final 2CP (given Labor and Green preferences would probably flow mainly to the Liberals). Not sure if the Shooters are running here, but they could easily poll 5–10% and make things even more interesting. In the end, however, I think this is still a very safe seat for the Nationals, particularly with such a high-profile candidate.
I don’t think anyone truly expects to know the winner in Kal (and if they say they do, they’re lyin’). If One Nation won it wouldn’t surprise me, partly due to the kaleidoscopic history of this seat (hey, they’ve elected everyone else), and also the rednecks who live here.
(To those who aren’t from WA: there were riots last year after a black kid on a bike got vigilante justice from a white guy in a ute, ie: hit and run. Shit got REAL bad.)
Anyone from the inner west of Sydney who feels bad because you didn’t wear enough sackcloth and ashes to this week’s Welcome To Country in Newtown: spend a week in Kalgoorlie. You might learn something.
As for some numbers.
1986: Labor got 80.1%, and the Libs didn’t even bother running (the only other one who bothered was an independent.) Since then (primary votes):
1989: 59.2%
1993: 52.7%
1996: 46.7%
2001: 38.9%
2005: 34.6%
2008: 17.6%
2013: 19.2%
That’s not just a decline. That’s a plummet.
Interesting result in Kalgoorlie with the three main parties all polling in the mid-20s. That means there are three possible combinations for the final two.
However with the indicative count showing a healthy lead for the Libs over the Nats, it seems unlikely the Liberal candidate could slip out of the top two. Nor would it matter if Labor made the runoff, given the strong conservative vote.
Liberal gain.
Who in office for Kalgoorlie
Correction to the above. The “indicative count” I referred to is actually the ABC’s preference estimate. That means there’s still a fair bit of uncertainty about the result. Still, it does appear that the Liberals are favoured to win.
Press in Pilbara seem to be splitting roughly 50/50 between labor and Nat’s this is similar bit we don’t know who is in final 2 any of 3 parties could win
reckon labor in final 2……. but there will be best a close result on primary votes …… then all the pref approx 20% to be distributed. 4% green 16% onp. np and spp to be distributed……. does any one have local knowledge of nat prefs?
mistake ……approx 24% nat and 20% others as preferences…….. what a vote spintering
The Labor candidate conceded on Facebook. In the event the final 2 are Liberals and Nats the Liberals win. The Nationals will win if the final 2’s Labor and Nationals, and I can imagine that happening.
Declared 56 lib 44,alp