LIB 10.3%
Incumbent MP
Jan Norberger, since 2013.
Geography
Northern Perth. Joondalup lies in the northeastern corner of the Joondalup council area, covering the suburbs of Beldon, Connolly, Edgewater, Heathridge, Mullaloo, Ocean Reef and parts of Currambine and Joondalup.
Redistribution
Joondalup lost its northern and southern edges, and expanded west to the coast. The seat lost Craigie to Hillarys and lost the northern end of the suburb of Joondalup to Burns Beach, while gaining the coastal strip stretching from Mullaloo to Ocean Reef, which was previously part of the seat of Ocean Reef.
History
Joondalup was first created in 1983. It was abolished in 1989 and restored in 1996. Apart from the 2008 election, the seat has always been won by the party winning the election statewide.
Jackie Watkins held the seat throughout the 1980s for the ALP. In 1989 she moved to the new seat of Wanneroo, and lost in 1993.
The Liberal Party’s Chris Baker won the restored seat of Joondalup in 1996. After one term, he lost in 2001 to Tony O’Gorman.
O’Gorman was re-elected twice, in 2005 and 2008. In 2008 he held the seat by a relatively marginal 4.3%, but suffered a minimal 0.8% swing while other Labor seats fell with bigger swings.
O’Gorman was defeated in 2013 by Liberal candidate Jan Norberger, with a swing of almost 8%.
Candidates
- Jan Norberger (Liberal)
- Nicholas Hart (Family First)
- Rex Host (Australian Christians)
- Lisa Webb (Greens)
- Peter Martin (Micro Business Party)
- Emily Hamilton (Labor)
- Aaron Malloy (Julie Matheson for WA)
- Brian Brightman (Independent)
Assessment
Joondalup is held by a sizeable margin, but statewide polling suggests Labor could be close to taking the seat. While there is a general trend towards Labor, Norberger as a first-term MP may benefit from a new personal vote.
2013 result
| Candidate | Party | Votes | % | Swing | Redist |
| Jan Norberger | Liberal | 9,961 | 50.3 | +11.9 | 56.2 |
| Tony O’Gorman | Labor | 7,519 | 37.9 | -3.9 | 33.1 |
| Brittany Young | Greens | 1,837 | 9.3 | -3.6 | 8.3 |
| Geoff Mcdavitt | Australian Christians | 503 | 2.5 | -0.7 | 2.0 |
| Family First | 0.4 | ||||
| Informal | 1,349 | 6.4 |
2013 two-party-preferred result
| Candidate | Party | Votes | % | Swing | Redist |
| Jan Norberger | Liberal | 10,796 | 54.5 | +7.8 | 60.3 |
| Tony O’Gorman | Labor | 9,023 | 45.5 | -7.8 | 39.7 |
Booth breakdown
Booths have been divided into three parts: east, north-west and south-west.
The Liberal two-party-preferred vote ranged from 53.7% in the east to 65% in the north-west.
| Voter group | GRN % | LIB 2PP % | Total votes | % of votes |
| North-West | 6.8 | 65.0 | 8,796 | 39.4 |
| East | 9.2 | 53.7 | 4,655 | 20.9 |
| South-West | 9.3 | 58.1 | 3,655 | 16.4 |
| Other votes | 10.2 | 60.0 | 3,643 | 16.3 |
| Pre-poll | 7.5 | 59.1 | 1,565 | 7.0 |
Two-party-preferred votes in Joondalup at the 2013 WA state election
The seat’s new coastal component and the uncertain effect of the “double sophomore surge” makes a prediction difficult here.
Agreed! The previous ALP member was a tough nut to crack, so the margin is stronger than it looks.
Reachtel “shock poll” has Labor ahead 58:42 2PP (apparently commissioned by Labor, and presumably leaked by labor too)
https://thewest.com.au/news/wa/liberals-behind-in-joondalup-ng-b88370150z
If that poll was correct, you’d think that the ALP would be likely to win all three of Joondalup, Wanneroo and Burns Beach (I’d expect them to swing as a group), and likely be in with a shot at Kingsley as well. If discontent with the Libs in the northern suburbs is that nasty, I could also see Johnson winning Hillarys as an independent.
It would also suggest *very* inconsistent swings across the state. If it’s 18% here, then it’s got to be countered with very muted swings elsewhere.
On the other hand, the matching Federal seat, Moore, is quite a safe Liberal seat, at 11.0% – though it does stretch down into territory covered by state seats like Hillarys and Carine. It had a very muted 1.1% swing to the ALP at the Federal election.
That reachTEL poll stinks of push polling and reachTEL is known for out of whack results. Joondalup remains 50/50 from my sources. But a lot can change between now and March. Labor are more likely to snag burn beach, and no way do they stand a chance in Kingsley with the popular local member there.
The latest Newspoll released tonight has the ALP ahead 54/46, representing an 11% swing from the 2013 election.
If this result is replicated at the election you’d expect the swing to be even higher in outer metro Perth and Joondalup would be a likely ALP gain.
A ReachTEL seat poll has Labor ahead 52-48 here off a sample of 625.
McGowan and friends can start popping the champagne bottles if they are winning in this seat.
ABC was giving away Joondalup to Labor last night but it’s now categorised as in doubt.
It’s hard to see an advantage for either side on absentees. The political divide is east-west but the approaches to the electorate are north and south.