LIB 16.2%
Incumbent MP
Rob Johnson, since 1996. Previously member for Whitford 1993-1996.
Geography
Northern Perth. Hillarys covers central parts of the Joondalup council area, including Hillarys, Craigie, Kallaroo, Padbury and Sorrento.
Redistribution
Hillarys shifted north, losing Marmion to Carine, and gaining Craigie from Joondalup. These changes cut the Liberal margin from 19% to 16.2%.
History
The seat of Hillarys has existed since 1996. The seat has been won by the same Liberal candidate at every election.
Hillarys was won by Liberal MP Rob Johnson, who had first been elected to parliament to represent Whitford in 1993. Johnson became a minister in the Liberal government in 1999, serving until the government’s defeat in 2001. Johnson was re-elected in 2001, 2005 and 2008, and became police minister after the 2008 election.
Johnson lost his ministry in a reshuffle in 2012, and was re-elected again in 2013. Johnson resigned from the Liberal Party in early 2016, after longstanding conflict with the premier, Colin Barnett.
Candidates
- Peter Katsambanis (Liberal)
- Rob Johnson (Independent)
- Teresa Ritchie (Labor)
- Louahna Lloyd (Greens)
- Elisabete Robinson (Australian Christians)
Assessment
Hillarys on paper is a safe Liberal seat, and Labor is not going to be a contender in this seat. We don’t have solid information on the popularity of the sitting independent MP, but he could have a chance of winning this seat away from his former party, who are running a member of the Legislative Council.
2013 result
| Candidate | Party | Votes | % | Swing | Redist |
| Rob Johnson | Liberal | 13,484 | 64.3 | +11.3 | 61.6 |
| Sam Thomas | Labor | 4,934 | 23.5 | -3.9 | 26.1 |
| Adam Collins | Greens | 2,015 | 9.6 | -2.3 | 9.8 |
| Michael Ford | Australian Christians | 545 | 2.6 | -0.1 | 2.6 |
| Informal | 1,232 | 5.5 |
2013 two-party-preferred result
| Candidate | Party | Votes | % | Swing | Redist |
| Rob Johnson | Liberal | 14,463 | 69.0 | +6.1 | 66.2 |
| Sam Thomas | Labor | 6,507 | 31.0 | -6.1 | 33.8 |
Booth breakdown
Booths have been divided into three parts: central, north and south.
The Liberal Party’s two-party-preferred vote ranged from 63% in the centre to 75% in the south.
The Greens came third, with a vote ranging from 8.4% in the south to 11% in the centre.
| Voter group | GRN % | LIB 2PP % | Total votes | % of votes |
| Central | 11.0 | 62.9 | 7,370 | 33.1 |
| North | 8.9 | 64.3 | 6,613 | 29.7 |
| South | 8.4 | 75.1 | 3,830 | 17.2 |
| Other votes | 11.6 | 66.2 | 2,943 | 13.2 |
| Pre-poll | 7.4 | 68.6 | 1,483 | 6.7 |
Two-party-preferred votes in Hillarys at the 2013 WA state election
I reckon the Labor vote in Hillarys is too strong for Rob Johnson to be a serious contender. In 2001, the seat went 51-49 on what (I think) were pretty similar boundaries.
Indeed Labor could be in with a shot here if Johnson were to direct preferences their way.
Its always hard to tell how candidates like Johnson will go without party backing and to see whether their electorates really have taken notice. Often ex Nationals can retain seats but that’s due to regional and rural constituents voting for a candidate rather then the party which is less prevalent in metropolitan areas.
In the 1980’s this was the ALP seat of Whitfords on a margin of over 12% at one stage (1986 I think), Its become a lot more established since then and even since 2001. I don’t see the ALP having any chance here, even though they’ll probably win the election quite easily. Rob Johnson has been here a long time, If he can get 25% plus One Nation preferences, he’ll have a shot of overtaking Labor.
I can’t see Johnson winning, but I can see him getting 15-20% and vengefully directing preferences against his old party and throwing the seat to Labor for the first time since 1993. He’s been around for long enough to have some kind of personal vote, and he also shares an ethnicity with a fair few people in this part of Perth. (Joondalup has one of the highest % of people born in the UK for any LGA in Australia – it’s like Auburn (NSW) for Poms.)
John D’Orazio did something very similar in 2008 in Morley (a new seat he was the previous MP for part of, assumed to be 7.6% safer for Labor than the state average), and look what happened there.
Hillarys (after redistribution) is assumed to be 8.9% safer for the Libs than the state average. Only 1.3% safer than Morley was supposed to be.
If you’re into gambling and have a spare $20, Labor’s worth a flutter here.