LIB 3.0%
Incumbent MP
Mick Murray (ALP), since 2008. Previously Member for Collie 2001-2005, Collie-Wellington 2005-2008.
Geography
South West. Collie-Preston lies to the south of Perth, covering the Capel, Collie, Dardanup and Donnybrook-Balingup local government areas. The coal-mining town of Collie is the largest population centre in the electorate.
Redistribution
Collie-Preston gained the entire Donnybrook-Balingup council area from Warren-Blackwood, and lost the suburb of Dalyellup to the seat of Bunbury. The addition of the Liberal-leaning Donnybrook-Balingup area shifted the electorate’s political balance in favour of the Liberal Party. The seat’s previous margin of 0.1% to the ALP has flipped to 3% for the Liberal Party.
History
The seat of Collie-Preston is the successor to the seat of Collie, which existed under that name from 1904 until the name was changed to Collie-Wellington in 2005 and then Collie-Preston in 2008.
The seat was held by Labor continuously for eighty-one years from 1908 until 1989.
In 1989, the seat was by the National Party’s Hilda Turnbull. Turnbull defeated Labor candidate Mick Murray in 1993 and 1996. In 2001, Murray defeated Turnbull by 34 votes.
In 2005, Murray was re-elected to the renamed seat, and a combination of a friendly redistribution and a 6.7% swing saw him hold the seat with a 9.3% margin.
Most of Murray’s margin was wiped out in the 2008 redistribution, but Murray held on with a small positive swing, leaving him with a 1% margin. He was re-elected by only 56 votes in 2013.
Candidates
- Don Hyland (Independent)
- Gordon Tayler (Greens)
- Monique Warnock (Nationals)
- Elysia Harverson (Liberal)
- Clinton Thomas (Shooters, Fishers and Farmers)
- Mick Murray (Labor)
- Louie Scibilia (Independent)
- David Miller (One Nation)
Assessment
Collie-Preston is a very marginal seat, and if there is a general statewide swing to Labor there is a good chance that sitting MP Mick Murray will be able to hold on despite the very unfavourable redistribution.
Labor, however, has deeper problems in this seat. The town of Collie, which has consistently sent a Labor MP to Parliament with an overwhelming vote, is making up a smaller and smaller part of the electorate, and is surrounded by solid Liberal-voting rural areas. In the long run it will become even harder for Labor to keep this seat, and if their hold on the town of Collie slips the seat will likely become a safe Liberal seat.
2013 result
| Candidate | Party | Votes | % | Swing | Redist |
| Mick Murray | Labor | 8,708 | 43.2 | -1.0 | 38.5 |
| Jaimee Motion | Liberal | 8,250 | 40.9 | +3.6 | 40.5 |
| Peter Hutchinson | Nationals | 1,513 | 7.5 | +7.5 | 10.7 |
| Kingsley Gibson | Greens | 1,010 | 5.0 | -2.9 | 6.3 |
| Alice Harper | Family First | 529 | 2.6 | -5.3 | 2.2 |
| Clinton Knop | Independent | 158 | 0.8 | +0.8 | 0.5 |
| Others | 1.1 | ||||
| Australian Christians | 0.2 | ||||
| Informal | 1,069 | 5.0 |
2013 two-party-preferred result
| Candidate | Party | Votes | % | Swing | Redist |
| Mick Murray | Labor | 10,108 | 50.1 | -3.7 | 47.0 |
| Jaimee Motion | Liberal | 10,052 | 49.9 | +3.7 | 53.0 |
Booth breakdown
Booths have been divided between the four local government areas which cover the electorate.
The Liberal Party won a solid majority of the two-party-preferred vote in three areas, ranging from 60% in Capel to 68% in Donnybrook-Balingup, but Labor balances out these areas with 77% of the vote in the town of Collie.
| Voter group | LIB 2PP % | Total votes | % of votes |
| Dardanup | 60.5 | 7,487 | 33.0 |
| Collie | 23.1 | 4,004 | 17.7 |
| Capel | 59.7 | 3,422 | 15.1 |
| Donnybrook-Balingup | 68.2 | 2,605 | 11.5 |
| Pre-poll | 47.1 | 1,792 | 7.9 |
| Other votes | 57.0 | 3,364 | 14.8 |
Two-party-preferred votes in Collie-Preston at the 2013 WA state election
This is too important a seat to remain without comments.
The Barnett government desperately needs to pull out some unlikely wins to hold on to government. It’s been reported that they’ve written off all the marginals in Perth under 5%. Collie-Preston is in that bracket but isn’t necessarily going to swing in line with seats in Perth. Does it offer some hope for the coalition?
I would say no. It’s been redrawn as a notional Liberal seat, but it just leaves Mick Murray in the position of having to reverse that 3+% swing he suffered at the last election. That seems eminently achievable. Especially since the new margin is entirely the result of adding new areas from safe Liberal seats. Look for large pro-Labor swings in places like Australind and Donnybrook.
I suspect One Nation will be targeting this seat. It’s a regional seat without a strong Nationals presence, and centred on a working-class town like Collie.
Labor can probably hold on thanks to leaking ON preferences.
I believe the One Nation candidate here came out against the Liberal preference deal but unlike other candidates hasn’t been disendorsed.
With the swing towards Labor this will most likely stay in their hands this time, my guesstimate would be 55-45.
I saw the One Nation candidate on the 7.30 Report naively complaining that the party’s focus was on the upper house.
I will amend my above post: I suspect One Nation SHOULD be targeting this seat, as it is the kind of seat that they can do well in. The most fertile ground for them is not going to be the same as in 2001, when the Nationals were weak and vulnerable.
It does, of course, make sense for them to focus on the Upper House.
The real curiosity is what happens when Mick Murray (and Peter Watson in Albany) retire.
The real curiosity is what happens when Mick Murray (and Peter Watson in Albany) retire.
I am not too optimistic about the ALP’s chances here. There isn’t much room for improvement in the Labor vote in Collie itself, so therefore it will probably come down to the booths added in the redistribution. Mick Murray is a quality local MP, if anybody has a chance it is probably him, but I can’t see where the swing he needs will come from.
This is another Labor seat in the country held onto with a bandaid by a popular sitting member (Mick Murray) much like Albany (Peter Watson) that they will unlikely get back in the foreseeable future once lost.
Liberals and forecastors all think Labor has a better chance in Bunbury (12% Lib) than Collie-Preston which says it all really. The redistribution doesn’t help Murray and neither does the fertile PHON vote despite the unhinged candidate offered. All of which I don’t think will help him but no doubt it is going to be close again.
The nightmare scenario here is the PHON winning it which can’t be discounted either which is scary in itself.
I’d expect that the Eaton and Australind booths will swing heavily enough to Labor to comfortably hold Collie-Preston even if it is only for one more term. ON will likely poll well, particularly in Collie proper and in rural areas but many of their preferences will flow back to Labor, especially when you consider the local ON candidate has been openly critical of the Lib-ON preference deal.
Bunbury is a possible, perhaps probable gain but if Labor don’t hold Collie then they’ll also be struggling to win the election.
Donnybrook was in a safe Nat seat last time, so Labor weren’t even pretending to try there (they came fourth behind the Greens). Going back further, in 2005 it was in the one-term seat of Capel (won by the Libs), while in 2008 that Lib got his seat merged, and probably got some kind of sophomore surge there (while losing the new seat). That area could give Labor its best result in a long time. (The Greens will still win in Balingup though.)
Boundaries around here are probably gonna remain weird for a long time. The Bunbury metro area is probably worth two seats by itself, but then the rest of Murray-Wellington and Collie-Preston would have to be combined into a seat running from Pinjarra all the way to Donnybrook (probably the reason the WAEC haven’t tried it yet).
Huge swings in Bunbury parts here led to the big margin but more surprisingly for me Collie again stuck solidly with Labor with 70-80% of the first preference in Collie itself.
The town of Collie has consistently voted Labor over the last 100 years. Enjoying the egg-on-face for those who predicted this to change in 2017.
I don’t think anyone really expects Collie to cease voting Labor. But long term there’s every chance it could go the way of places like Broken Hill or Port Augusta, where the Labor vote declines in strength and is swapped by surrounding conservative areas.
*swamped
yes ……in nsw Broken hill determined a labor seat for a long time….. but eventually depopulation caused it to be swamped by the surrounding country areas and non is in Barwon a safe anti labor seat