Bicton – WA 2017

LIB 9.2%

Incumbent MP
Dean Nalder, member for Alfred Cove since 2013.

Geography
Bicton covers suburbs on the south side of the Swan River, including Attadale, Melville, East Fremantle. The seat covers the north-western corner of the Melville council area, most of the East Fremantle council area and a small part of the City of Fremantle.

Redistribution
Bicton is a new seat, taking in parts of the abolished seat of Alfred Cove, as well as Fremantle, Bateman and Willagee. Approximately 44% of the population comes from Alfred Cove, with 41.3% coming from Fremantle and the remainder coming from Willagee and Bateman. While the former seat of Alfred Cove had a Liberal margin of 23.6%, the new seat of Bicton has a margin of only 9.2%.

History
The seat of Bicton is a new seat, taking in parts of the seats of Alfred Cove and Fremantle.

The seat of Alfred Cove was created in 1996 as a notional safe Liberal seat, with a margin of over 20%.

In 1996, sitting Liberal Member for Melville Doug Shave decided to run for the new seat of Alfred Cove. He was challenged for preselection by Penny Hearne.

Shave narrowly defeated Hearne, and she resigned from the Liberal Party to run as an independent. Shave narrowly held on by a 2.4% margin.

In 2001, the ALP did not run in Alfred Cove, and a number of minor parties and independents targeted the seat.

Janet Woollard ran for the Liberals for Forests party, and polled just over 20% of the primary vote, while another independent also polled 20% of the vote. Shave’s vote fell to under 33%, and he lost to Woollard on preferences. Woollard achieved a 7.4% margin.

Woollard’s margin has been reduced at every election since 2001. Her vote after preferences fell to 54.6% in 2005 and 51% in 2008.

In 2013, Woollard dropped to third place, and lost the seat to Liberal candidate Dean Nalder.

Nalder joined the Liberal government as a minister, but stepped down in 2016 to challenge Colin Barnett unsuccessfully for the party leadership.

Candidates
Sitting Liberal member for Alfred Cove Dean Nalder is running for the neighbouring seat of Bateman, while sitting Bateman MP Matt Taylor is running for Bicton.

• Louise Dickmann (Greens)
• Lisa O’Malley (Labor)
• Richard Korfanty (Micro Business Party)
• Steve Kepert (Independent)
• Colleen Saporita (Animal Justice)
• Stephen Wardell-Johnson (Australian Christians)
• Matt Taylor (Liberal)

Assessment
Bicton is a marginal seat, and on a uniform swing it would be the seat to finally give Labor a majority in the Assembly. Local polling has suggested the seat is neck-and-neck, which matches the statewide polling.

While the Liberal candidate is a sitting MP, very little of his former electorate is covered by Bicton, so he will not likely benefit from a substantial personal vote.

2013 result

2013 two-party-preferred result

Booth breakdown

Booths have been divided into three parts: north, south-east and south-west.

The Liberal Party won a large 69.6% majority after preferences in the north and a smaller majority of 56.4% in the south-east. Labor won a 53.5% in the south-west.

The Greens vote ranged from 8.8% in the north to 15.3% in the south-west. The vote for independents reached 10% in the north of the seat.

Election results in Bicton at the 2013 WA state election
Click on the ‘visible layers’ box to toggle between two-party-preferred votes and Greens primary votes.