LIB 1.1%
Incumbent MP
Glenys Godfrey, since 2013.
Geography
Inner-eastern Perth. Belmont covers suburbs on the south side of the Swan River, including the suburbs Rivervale, Kewdale, Belmont, Cloverdale, Redcliffe, Ascot, Hazelmere and part of South Guilford. Belmont also covers the Burswood peninsula. The seat covers the entirety of Belmont council area, and parts of Victoria Park, Canning and Swan council areas.
Redistribution
Belmont gained the Burswood peninsula from Victoria Park and Hazelmere from Midland, while holding on to all of its existing territory. These changes increased the Liberal margin from 0.9% to 1.1%.
History
Belmont has existed continuously since 1989, and previously from 1962 until 1974. The seat was held continuously by Labor until 2013.
The seat was won in 1989 by Eric Ripper.
Ripper had won a by-election in the seat of Ascot in 1988, after the resignation of former Deputy Premier Mal Bryce.
In 1989, Ascot was abolished and most of the population was put into Belmont.
Ripper served as Deputy Leader of the Opposition under Geoff Gallop from 1996 to 2001, and then Deputy Premier in the Gallop and Carpenter governments until 2008.
After the ALP lost power in 2008, Ripper became Leader of the Opposition. He held the position until early 2012, when he resigned and was replaced by Mark McGowan.
Ripper retired at the 2013 election, and Belmont was won by Liberal candidate Glenys Godfrey with a 7.6% swing.
Candidates
- Cassie Rowe (Labor)
- Glenys Godfrey (Liberal)
- Brigit Anderson (Animal Justice)
- Sue Fraser (Australian Christians)
- Miral Soboh (Micro Business Party)
- Bhuwan Khadka (Greens)
- Julie Mitchell (One Nation)
- Ian Blevin (Shooters, Fishers and Farmers)
Assessment
Belmont is very marginal, and if the ALP gains the large swing predicted by current polling they would be in a strong position. Godfrey, however, may be able to slightly buck the trend with her new personal vote as a first-term MP.
2013 result
| Candidate | Party | Votes | % | Swing | Redist |
| Glenys Godfrey | Liberal | 8,679 | 47.1 | +13.2 | 47.3 |
| Cassie Rowe | Labor | 7,827 | 42.5 | -1.0 | 42.2 |
| Steve Wolff | Greens | 1,504 | 8.2 | -4.0 | 8.2 |
| Steve Klomp | Australian Christians | 421 | 2.3 | -0.8 | 2.3 |
| Informal | 1,317 | 6.7 |
2013 two-party-preferred result
| Candidate | Party | Votes | % | Swing | Redist |
| Glenys Godfrey | Liberal | 9,378 | 50.9 | +7.6 | 51.1 |
| Cassie Rowe | Labor | 9,048 | 49.1 | -7.6 | 48.9 |
Booth breakdown
Booths have been divided into three parts: central, north and south.
The Liberal Party won slim majorities of the vote in the north (50.7%) and the centre (51.1%), while Labor won 50.5% of the two-party-preferred vote in the south.
| Voter group | GRN % | LIB 2PP % | Total votes | % of votes |
| North | 6.8 | 50.7 | 5,810 | 29.9 |
| Central | 8.4 | 51.1 | 4,484 | 23.1 |
| South | 8.4 | 49.5 | 3,907 | 20.9 |
| Pre-poll | 9.9 | 56.1 | 1,146 | 5.9 |
| Other votes | 9.3 | 51.6 | 4,060 | 20.1 |
Two-party-preferred votes in Belmont at the 2013 WA state election
Should go back to Labor this time, although this won’t be the rock-steady seat for them it was pre-2013 – The areas by the river have notably trended Liberal, and the area as a whole has become more affluent. Not sure if it will be a future bellwether just yet, but watch this seat next time the Liberals do well.
Neither Premier Court won here/predecessor seats in any of their victories (Labor held Belmont by 4.8% in 1993, when the Liberals won statewide by 55.45%).
Losing Belmont certainly underlined the futility of Labor’s late term leadership change.
Yes Anton I agree this currently is still a Labor leaning seat but it has become increasingly affluent (particularly the area north of Alexander Rd). I suspect the changing demographics will lead it to become a bellwether at future elections.
It will be interesting to see what impact the proposed airport line, and the station at Redcliffe may have on the result. Overall I’d expect the swing against the Government here will be much less then the state average.