ALP 7.7%
Incumbent MP
Roger Cook, member for Kwinana since 2008.
Geography
Southern coastal fringe of Perth. The seat of Baldivis covers the suburbs of Baldivis, Bertram, Wellard and parts of Waikiki, Warnbro, Cooloongup. A majority of the seat lies in the Rockingham council area, with another part in the Kwinana council area.
Redistribution
Baldivis is a new seat, taking in a large proportion of the seat of Kwinana and a small part of the seat of Warnbro.
History
Baldivis is a new seat, mostly taking in areas previously contained in the neighbouring seat of Kwinana. Kwinana was created as a very safe Labor seat in 2008 following the redistribution caused by the introduction of one-vote-one-value reforms.
The Labor candidate, Roger Cook, was challenged by local mayor Carol Adams, running as an independent. Despite the presumed margin, Adams came close to defeating Cook, polling 49.2% of the two-candidate vote. Adams again challenged Cook in 2013, but Cook won with a slightly larger margin, with 52.6% of the vote after preferences.
Candidates
- Malcolm George (Liberal)
- Kath Summers (Independent)
- Christine Fegebank (Greens)
- Matt Whitfield (Independent)
- John Zurakowski (One Nation)
- Reece Whitby (Labor)
- Yvette Holmes (Australian Christians)
- Prabhpreet Makkar (Micro Business Party)
- Craig Hamersley (Independent)
Assessment
Baldivis is held by Labor by a 7.7% margin, and the seat is likely to stay in Labor hands.
2013 result
| Candidate | Party | Votes | % | Swing | Redist |
| Roger Cook | Labor | 9,819 | 43.8 | +2.3 | 44.3 |
| Carol Adams | Independent | 5,406 | 24.1 | +2.0 | 15.6 |
| John Jamieson | Liberal | 5,330 | 23.8 | +3.6 | 31.5 |
| Iwan Boskamp | Greens | 1,340 | 6.0 | -4.7 | 6.6 |
| Stephen Wardell-Johnson | Australian Christians | 536 | 2.4 | +2.4 | 2.1 |
| Informal | 1,633 | 6.8 |
2013 two-candidate-preferred result
| Candidate | Party | Votes | % | Swing | Redist |
| Roger Cook | Labor | 11,783 | 52.6 | -4.6 | 57.7 |
| Carol Adams | Independent | 10,633 | 47.4 | +4.6 | 42.3 |
2013 two-party-preferred result
| Candidate | Party | Votes | % | Swing | Redist |
| Roger Cook | Labor | 13,869 | 61.8 | -4.6 | 57.7 |
| John Jamieson | Liberal | 8,560 | 38.2 | +4.6 | 42.3 |
Booth breakdown
Booths have been divided into three parts: north, south-east and south-west.
The ALP won a majority of the two-party-preferred vote over the Liberal Party in all three areas, with sizeable majorities in the north and south-west and a slim 50.3% majority in the south-east.
Independents polled strongly, with Carol Adams polling as highly as 28.7% in the north.
| Voter group | IND % | ALP 2PP % | Total votes | % of votes |
| South-East | 9.3 | 50.3 | 5,589 | 34.3 |
| North | 28.7 | 63.0 | 3,328 | 20.4 |
| South-West | 12.9 | 65.8 | 2,729 | 16.7 |
| Other votes | 14.1 | 57.0 | 3,150 | 19.3 |
| Pre-poll | 18.0 | 59.8 | 1,506 | 9.2 |
Election results in Baldivis at the 2013 WA state election
Click on the ‘visible layers’ box to toggle between two-party-preferred votes and independent primary votes.
Baldivis itself (the Liberal booths plus the Labor 52) is largely new (past 10-15 years and still growing) mortgage belt suburbia, while most of the rest is rock solid Labor.
On these boundaries, a definite (barring a NSW 2011/QLD 2012 style landslide) Labor seat, also, this is the third time Reece Whitby has run for a seat in state Parliament (he ran in Morley in 2008 and 2013, lost both times).
From Labor’s point of view, you could hardly have picked a better place for a new electorate. Rockingham, Kwinana and Warnbro were/are some of the ALP’s safest seats.
It’s also the best place for a really rude shock. Papalia and McGowan have hefty personal votes (being ex-navy helps in Rocko), while Carol Adams flattened any attempt at a Lib campaign in Kwinana. Now, there’s a new seat with all the new mortgage belt suburbs (Wellard, Bertram, Baldivis) and not many of the old ones. This seat is nowhere near as safe as it looks.
The Libs aren’t gonna get a 7% swing at this election, so I guess Reece Whitby is finally gonna get his own safe Labor seat to play with. (Unless Tony Galati runs as an independent. I’d love to see that.)
Vote for Craig Hamersley in Baldivis, he’s the only candidate with the integrity of non-political alignment/bias. Craig has lived in the Baldivis area for 20 years. He runs his own electrical business and has developed from an electrical apprentice and seen first hand the damage that both major parties have done with allowing all the foreign visa workers in. Business has been allowed too much latitude and many do not give anything back to the communities that support them, including paying their fair share of taxes. The heavy lifting is all being done by the common people.
It’s time government was given back to the people. The states mineral resource belongs to us and we get nothing for it, not even jobs as many of these are eastern staters or foreigners.
Vote for Craig Hamersley in Baldivis
Matt Whitfield is the real dark horse in this State Seat. He is a very popular city of rockingham councillor with a real groundswell of support in the Baldivis heartland. Those people on the ground are already saying that this race will be between him and Reece Whitby. Could be one to watch.
The only way we can guarantee that there will be a true change of government and leadership is to vote WA Labor.
The other parties and independents are making deals and trying to be heroes for themselves. I believe the WA Labor values are the key elements of success in our communities today. I commend all candidates for stepping forward and saying they want to do many things for our communities. However, there is only one way for our communities to flourish, and that is to have a Mark McGowan WA Labor Government.
WA Labor has real plans for Jobs, Health, and Education. Many of the candidates have copied the WA Labor goals for our communities, but only WA Labor has the plans and the experience to bring to pass the success of a better WA. If you want to have a change of government, WA Labor needs to win key seats. One of them is the new seat of Baldivis.
That is why I am voting for Reece Whitby the WA Labor candidate for Baldivis.
What is it with independents in this area? The last two contests for Kwinana were very close, now it’s Baldivis’s turn.
Despite the strong challenge, Reece Whitby appears to be home and dry. He finally has a seat parliament.