Scarborough – WA 2013

LIB 5.1%

Incumbent MP
Liza Harvey, since 2008.

 

Geography
Northern Perth. Scarborough covers the suburbs of Scarborough, Doubleview, Innaloo, Trigg and parts of Gwelup and Karrinyup, near the coast in the inner north of Perth. The entire seat is contained in the City of Stirling.

Redistribution
Scarborough moved to the north, losing parts to Churchlands and gaining parts from Carine. This slightly changed the Liberal margin from 5.2% to 5.1%.

History
Scarborough was created in its current form at the 2008 election. A seat named Scarborough previously existed as a marginal seat from 1974 to 1996.

The previous seat was held by the Liberals from 1974 to 1983, then the ALP from 1983 to 1989, and again by the Liberal Party from 1989 to 1996.

The new seat was created with a notional Liberal margin of 2.6%. Liberal candidate Liza Harvey was elected with a 2.6% swing.

Candidates

Assessment
Scarborough is a marginal seat, but in the current environment Harvey is likely to increase her margin.

2008 result

Candidate Party Votes % Swing
Liza Harvey LIB 8,374 44.9 +14.2
Scott Blackwell ALP 5,622 30.1 -2.3
Sonja Lundie-Jenkins GRN 2,338 12.5 +1.9
Elizabeth Re IND 1,707 9.1 +9.1
Jennifer Whately CDP 400 2.1 -1.4
Jim McCourt FF 223 1.2 +1.2

2008 two-candidate-preferred result

Candidate Party Votes % Swing
Liza Harvey LIB 10,290 55.2 +2.6
Scott Blackwell ALP 8,360 44.8 -2.6

 

Polling booths in Scarborough at the 2008 WA state election. North in blue, South in orange.

Booth breakdown
Booths have been divided into two halves, north and south. The vote was similar in the two parts of the seat.

Voter group LIB % ALP % GRN % Total votes % of ordinary votes
North 44.65 29.82 11.76 8,215 54.13
South 45.96 29.06 13.25 6,961 45.87
Other votes 44.66 30.86 11.91 4,711
Liberal primary votes in Scarborough at the 2008 WA state election.
Labor primary votes in Scarborough at the 2008 WA state election.
Greens primary votes in Scarborough at the 2008 WA state election.

7 COMMENTS

  2. What are the demographics of this seat that make it so much more marginal than the other northern coastal seats?

  3. MDMConnell, Innaloo and the northern parts of Doubleview aren’t as affluent as surrounding suburbs, southern Doubleview is more in character with Woodlands (which was recently removed from this seat).

    Also, a lot of younger people live in Scarborough nowadays, so Scarborough isn’t as Liberal-leaning as it used to be.

  6. There should be a good swing to the Liberals here. Liza Harvey has grown from a relative unknown to the Liberals poster girl trying to prove that they can have women in prominent Cabinet positions (Police Minister).

  7. What are the demographics of this seat that make it so much more marginal than the other northern coastal seats?

    Basically, it’s too far north to be the old-money western suburbs (Claremont, Floreat etc), but it’s been around for longer than 30 years, so it’s not part of the increasingly-ridiculous northern sprawl. (That area wasn’t always Liberal, by the way: Hillarys is a safe Lib seat these days, but up until the early 90’s it was held by Labor… the newish suburbs are turning blue as they become less new and the development boom heads further north.) I guess you could call it a transition zone.

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