Mount Lawley – WA 2013

LIB 1.7%

Incumbent MP
Michael Sutherland, since 2008.

Map of Mount Lawley’s 2008 and 2013 boundaries. 2008 boundaries appear as red line, 2013 boundaries appear as white area. Local government areas are marked as green lines. Click to enlarge.

Geography
Inner north-eastern Perth. Mount Lawley is part of the Eastern Metropolitan region for the Legislative Council, and lies immediately to the north of the Perth CBD. Most of Mount Lawley lies in the southeastern corner of Stirling local government area.

The remainder of the seat lies in Bayswater and Vincent council areas. The seat covers the suburbs of Yokine, Coolbinia, Menora and parts of Mount Lawley, Dianella, Inglewood, Morley and East Perth.

Redistribution
The seat lost small areas to the neighbouring seats of Perth and Maylands at the southern edge of the seat, and gained a larger piece of territory from Morley at the northern edge of the seat. The margin was cut from 2.2% to 1.7%.

History
The seat of Mount Lawley previously existed from 1950 to 1989, but was only restored at the last election in 2008. The seat has always been held by Liberals, with the exception of two terms when it was won by an independent Liberal.

Mount Lawley was held from 1962 to 1984 by Ray O’Connor. He briefly served as Premier from the retirement of Charles Court in 1982 until the ALP won government in 1983. He resigned in 1984, and the by-election was won by George Cash.

When Mount Lawley was abolished in 1989, Cash moved to the Legislative Council, where he served until his retirement in 2008.

The new seat of Mount Lawley largely replaced the seat of Yokine, which was abolished in 2008. That seat had been held by Labor MP Bob Kucera since 2001. Kucera was refused preselection in 2008 and finished his term as an independent.

In 2008, Mount Lawley was won by Liberal candidate Michael Sutherland. Sutherland was a Perth city councillor, and previously had served as a Johannesburg city councillor in the 1980s before moving to Australia.

Candidates
Sitting Liberal MP Michael Sutherland is running for re-election. Former Labor MP for Yokine Bob Kucera is running for the ALP. The Greens are running Tim Clifford.

Assessment
Mount Lawley is one of the most marginal Liberal seats in Western Australia. The seat’s result will likely depend on whether the Liberals gain ground or lose ground statewide. Sutherland should benefit from a personal vote that was absent in 2008, but Kucera previously represented parts of the seat for seven years, and may boost the Labor vote.

2008 result

Candidate Party Votes % Swing
Michael Sutherland LIB 8,607 46.4 +8.1
Karen Brown ALP 6,487 35.0 -10.5
Chris Dickinson GRN 2,639 14.2 +4.9
Paul Connelly CDP 516 2.8 –
Kay Warwick FF 305 1.6 +0.1

2008 two-candidate-preferred result

Candidate Party Votes % Swing
Michael Sutherland LIB 9,680 52.2 +8.1
Karen Brown ALP 8,865 47.8 -8.1

 

Polling booths in Mount Lawley at the 2008 WA state election. Mount Lawley in green, Yokine in blue, Dianella in orange.

Booth breakdown
Booths have been divided into three areas, centred around key suburbs. From north to south these are Dianella, Yokine and Mount Lawley.

The Liberal Party polled the highest vote in all three areas, varying from 44% in Dianella to 48% in Yokine. The ALP vote was almost 37% in Dianella, and just over 34% in the rest of the seat. The Greens vote peaked at 17.9% in Mount Lawley.

Voter group LIB % ALP % GRN % Total votes % of ordinary votes
Yokine 48.12 34.11 13.12 6,130 39.58
Dianella 44.07 36.91 10.13 4,944 31.92
Mount Lawley 45.11 34.03 17.85 4,414 28.50
Other votes 44.25 35.53 15.08 4,689
Liberal primary votes in Mount Lawley at the 2008 SA state election.
Labor primary votes in Mount Lawley at the 2008 SA state election.
Greens primary votes in Mount Lawley at the 2008 SA state election.

5 COMMENTS

  3. Bob Kucera has done the hard yards, and is still very well respected in this electorate.

    My prediction: Labor gain (close)

  4. There may be a good chance of an ALP swing in this seat due to there being a popular former sitting member in Bob Kucera; and such a large swing to the Liberal Party at the last election, possibly contributed to by Kucera being disendorsed may mean that there may not be much of a swing left.

    Albeit, I don’t think the swing will be large enough for Labor to win. Sutherland seems to be a strong campaigner – you can’t escape seeing his face on billboards even if you don’t live in the Mt Lawley electorate!

  5. Kucera and the large swing in 2008 might hold the swing down this time, but with a predicted statewide 4-5% swing to the Coalition, it’s very hard to see this going against the grain.

    Lib retain, possibly with little to no swing…

Comments are closed.