Morley – WA 2013

ALP 0.8%

Incumbent MP
Ian Britza (LIB), since 2008.

 

Geography
North-eastern Perth. Morley is split evenly between parts of Bayswater and Stirling local government areas. The seat covers the suburbs of Nollamara, Noranda, Dianella and Morley.

Redistribution
Morley moved towards the west in the redistribution. Morley lost a strip on the eastern edge and part of the southern end of the seat, and gained territory at the western end of the seat.

The Liberal Party won the seat in 2008 with a margin of 0.9%, which has been shifted to a margin of 0.8% for the Labor Party.

History
The seat of Morley in its current form was created at the 2008 election. A previous seat using the name Morley existed from 1974 until 1996, although the seat was renamed as Morley-Swan from 1983 to 1989.

The previous seat was won by the ALP at every election from 1974 to 1993. Clive Brown won the seat in 1993, and moved to the new seat of Bassendean in 1996.

Morley was recreated in the 2008 redistribution, with the majority of the seat coming from the abolished seat of Ballajura.

John D’Orazio had held Ballajura since 2001 for the ALP. He served briefly as a minister from 2005 to 2006. He was forced to resign due to driving offences, and he became an independent.

D’Orazio was restored to the ALP in 2008, but resigned after losing preselection in Morley.

D’Orazio ran as an independent against the ALP’s Reece Whitby and the Liberal Party’s Ian Britza.

Whitby polled the highest primary vote, but D’Orazio directed preferences to the Britza, giving the seat to the Liberal Party.

Candidates
Sitting Liberal MP Ian Britza is running for re-election. The ALP is again running 2008 candidate Reece Whitby. The Greens are running Sally Palmer.

Assessment
Morley has a sitting Liberal MP, but is a notional Labor seat. With polls showing the Liberal Party in the lead, it seems likely that the Liberal Party will gain the small swing needed to retain the seat, particularly considering the new personal vote for Ian Britza.

Having considered that, the 2008 result was an anomaly, with a sitting Labor MP taking a large chunk out of the ALP’s vote and directing preferences to the Liberal Party. Whitby and D’Orazio polled a majority of the vote between them, and if Labor can regain most of D’Orazio’s vote it will likely overcome any swing or personal vote for the Liberal Party.

Morley is a likely candidate for a seat that will move against statewide trends on March 9.

2008 result

Candidate Party Votes % Swing
Reece Whitby ALP 7,010 35.7 -15.9
Ian Britza LIB 6,797 34.7 +1.1
John D’Orazio IND 3,145 16.0 +16.0
Sally Palmer GRN 1,687 8.6 +2.6
Andrew Partington CDP 635 3.2 -0.7
Azeem Shah IND 337 1.7 +1.7

2008 two-candidate-preferred result

Candidate Party Votes % Swing
Ian Britza LIB 9,969 50.9 +10.8
Reece Whitby ALP 9,629 49.1 -10.8

 

 

Polling booths in Morley at the 2008 WA state election. East in orange, Central in green, West in blue.

Booth breakdown
Booths have been divided into three parts: Central, East and West. Booths in the west were not contained in Morley at the 2008 election.

The Liberal Party topped the poll in the centre of the electorate, while the ALP topped the poll in the east. The ALP polled over 50% in the west. Independent candidate John D’Orazio polled almost 20% in the east, compared to 15.9% in the centre.

Voter group ALP % LIB % IND % GRN % Total votes % of ordinary votes
Central 33.96 37.30 15.85 8.41 9,116 50.26
East 37.48 29.83 19.80 7.97 5,398 29.76
West 50.36 31.07 14.32 3,624 19.98
Other votes 37.25 34.51 12.84 9.47 3,475
Labor primary votes in Morley at the 2008 WA state election.
Liberal primary votes in Morley at the 2008 WA state election.
Primary votes for independent candidate John D’Orazio in Morley at the 2008 WA state election.

10 COMMENTS

  3. One of the main (and more likely to happen) parts of the Metronet plan is the Ellenbrook / North Circle line, which would run around this electorate, with three stations at Morley, Noranda and Malaga – that’s got to be worth something. The new section that’s been added from Nollamara is one of the strongest Labor areas in Perth, so if they can get most of D’Orazio’s vote back in the east they’ve got a fair chance of winning. After a 10.8% 2pp swing last time (one of the biggest in WA), it can’t go too much further towards the Libs. It’s probably the only seat Labor have a chance of taking off the Libs.

  4. Again, local Labor candidate Reece Whitby has done the work in this electorate.

    Metronet will make life easier for many in this electorate.

    My prediction: ALP gain (by about 2%)

  5. Peter you are overestimating the effect made by Metronet. For one many people I speck say they see it as too expensive just as Colin Barnett Perth canal idea to bring water to Perth was seen as in 2005.

  6. Daniella/Nollamara looks to be politically pretty neutral at federal level, whereas here it looks like it went about 65-35 to Labor. Presumably that’s because Nollamarra was a rock solid Labor seat where the Libs didn’t put up a fight at all.

    Now that it is in a marginal seat, there is scope for this area to swing to the Liberals quite heavily, which would be enough for them to hold the seat.

  7. Without the D’Orazio factor this seat could see a Labor swing and retain. Britza was very lucky in 2008 to win this seat. Now with Nollamara added, Labor has a greater chance. Don’t know if the 10.8% swing to the Liberals can increase much further in the current political climate.

  8. Any views on this seat from our WA correspondents? Seems like one that could go against the trend?

Comments are closed.