Kwinana – WA 2013

ALP vs IND 0.8%

Incumbent MP
Roger Cook, since 2008.

 

Map of Kwinana’s 2008 and 2013 boundaries. 2008 boundaries appear as red line, 2013 boundaries appear as white area. Local government areas are marked as green lines. Click to enlarge.

Geography
Southern fringe of Perth. This seat covers all of Kwinana local government area, including the suburbs of Medina, Calista, Leda, Parmelia, Orelia, Bertram and Wellard.

The seat also includes northern parts of Rockingham council area, including Cooloongup, Waikiki and parts of Baldivis.

Redistribution
Changes were made to the southern parts of the seat, gaining parts from Warnbro and losing parts to Rockingham. This reduced the Labor margin over the Liberal Party from 17.6% to 16.4%. While it is difficult to estimate the new margin against the independent candidate, it is likely to have reduced the Labor margin.

History
Kwinana was created as a very safe Labor seat in 2008 following the redistribution caused by the introduction of one-vote-one-value reforms.

The Labor candidate, Roger Cook, was challenged by local mayor Carol Adams, running as an independent.

Despite the presumed margin, Adams came close to defeating Cook, polling 49.2% of the two-candidate vote.

Candidates
Sitting Labor MP Roger Cook is running for re-election. Mayor of Kwinana, Carol Adams, is running again as an independent. The Greens are running Iwan Boskamp.

Assessment
Cook will be benefiting from a personal vote that he didn’t have in 2008. Adams, on the other hand, has notched up another four years as Mayor for the large majority of the seat. If there is a swing against Labor that should benefit Adams.

2008 result

Candidate Party Votes % Swing
Roger Cook ALP 7,990 42.0 -17.6
Carol Adams IND 4,364 23.0 +23.0
Alexander Bellotti LIB 3,590 18.9 -3.4
Dawn Jecks GRN 2,030 10.7 +4.6
Malcolm George FF 719 3.8 -0.5
Peter Lambert IND 318 1.7 +1.7

2008 two-candidate-preferred result

Candidate Party Votes % Swing
Roger Cook ALP 9,648 50.8
Carol Adams IND 9,348 49.2

 

 

Polling booths in Kwinana at the 2008 WA state election. East in orange, West in blue.

Booth breakdown
Booths have been divided into two halves: east and west, with each half covering four booths.

The ALP’s vote was higher in the west than in the east (37-41%), while the Liberal vote was higher in the east (15-21%). The vote for Carol Adams was about the same, between 27-28%, in both halves.

Voter group ALP % IND % LIB % GRN % Total votes % of ordinary votes
West 41.38 27.56 15.52 10.48 7,547 64.55
East 37.35 27.31 20.92 9.26 4,145 35.45
Other votes 43.71 14.26 23.43 12.14 4,875
Labor primary votes in Kwinana at the 2008 WA state election.
Primary votes for Carol Adams in Kwinana at the 2008 WA state election.
Liberal primary votes in Kwinana at the 2008 WA state election.
Greens primary votes in Kwinana at the 2008 WA state election.

12 COMMENTS

  4. Carol Adams is well respected in this electorate, as is Roger Cook, however Metronet will boost his numbers.

    Prediction: ALP retain (comfortably)

  6. This seat contains all the good Labor bits of Brand, which only went Labor by about 3.5% at the federal election.

    Would Warnbro be a smokey for a Liberal gain then, given it must contain the better Liberal bits of Brand…..??

  7. No, unless it’s a Qld-style catastrophe. Brand covers some of the strongest Labor territory in WA, which is why it’s still Labor despite their state 2pp only being 43.6%.

    I’ve just chucked the relevant Brand and Warnbro figures into a spreadsheet and compared them… on federal results, Warnbro would still be Labor-held, but with a margin of just 0.2% (compared to the 2008 margin of 9.7%). I’d call that an example of how WA and federal politics are not the same thing.

    Put another way, the Warnbro section of Brand was 6.6% safer than WA in general at the 2010 election. For the state seat in 2008, that figure would be 11.6%. So even after adjusting for the effects of two very different elections, Warnbro is still 5% safer at state level.

    Relevant to the thread: Baldivis has been transferred to Kwinana. It was Labor’s weakest booth at both the 2008 and 2010 elections, so Adams might have some luck there. (It might also increase the chance of the Libs coming second, though.)

  8. BoP

    I guess my line of thinking is that the polls are suggesting a federal type 2PP, plus there was a very inconsistent swing in 2008.

    So overlaying the federal numbers gives some idea of what areas are natural Labor and what areas might possibly swing quite big to the Liberals. Not an exact science I know, but Warnbro and say Butler would be very interesting on fed figures despite their large 2008 margins….

  9. Labor in a tight one.
    It’s not unprecedented for an Independent to come mighty close to winning a seat at one election and fizzle out at the next. The question is whether Adams’ vote holds up against the Liberals, which will probably go up.
    Adams may also suffer if the Liberals repeat the dirty tricks used by their counterparts in other states and paint a vote for this Independent as a backhanded vote for Labor – they’ve been stewing ever since Oakeshott and Windsor chose to put Gillard in the Lodge instead of Abbott, and engaged in such filth against every Independent ever since.

  10. I seriously doubt the Liberals will “smear” and Independent who could oust a Labor MP.

    No, the Libs’ problem here is the same as in Fremantle…their vote might increase enough for them to finish second despite themselves…

  11. The Liberals would certainly want an Independent to win in seats which they can’t. Lyne and New England are a different story as they are strong Coalition seats on 2PP terms.

    The closest example I can think of in a strong Liberal vote helping Labor win over an Independent is Mitchell from the 2010 South Australian election.

  12. MDM: That’s what I was getting at with that 5% figure – that’s how much safer it is at state level compared to federal. Unless the Lib state 2pp blew out to something horrifying like 60-40, Warnbro’s safe. (Meanwhile, that part of Brand has an OK chance of turning blue in September, even if the federal result isn’t quite so lopsided.)

    I might try that trick on Butler… it’s an interesting one, as it’s safe Labor but in a safe Liberal seat federally (Pearce, along with the hills and parts of the wheatbelt). Midland, Armadale, Albany and Collie-Preston (and probably a few others) have a similar thing going on.

Comments are closed.