Gosnells – WA 2013

ALP 4.8%

Incumbent MP
Chris Tallentire, since 2008.

 

Geography
Southern Perth. Gosnells includes most of the suburbs of Gosnells and Thornlie, south of the Canning River. The entire seat lies in Gosnells council area.

Redistribution
Gosnells’ boundary with Southern River was modified to follow suburb boundaries. Gosnells gained the remainder of Gosnells and Thornlie, and lost Huntingdale. The ALP’s margin was reduced from 5.5% to 4.8%.

History
Gosnells was created at the 2008 seat. The seat name was previously used from 1977 to 1989. The seat has always been won by Labor.

The seat was created with a notional 11.4% margin for the ALP, which was cut to 5.5% at the 2008 election, when the seat was won by Labor candidate Chris Tallentire.

Candidates

Assessment
Gosnells is a marginal seat, although that came after a large swing in 2008. Tallentire should benefit from a personal vote that, along with a 4.8% margin, could protect him from a statewide Liberal swing.

2008 result

Candidate Party Votes % Swing
Chris Tallentire ALP 7,874 42.9 -9.1
Chris Fernandez LIB 6,453 35.2 +6.1
Luke Edmonds GRN 2,251 12.3 +6.1
Madeleine Goiran CDP 923 5.0 +0.7
Dave Bolt FF 846 4.6 +0.7

2008 two-candidate-preferred result

Candidate Party Votes % Swing
Chris Tallentire ALP 10,172 55.5 -5.9
Chris Fernandez LIB 8,162 44.5 +5.9

 

Polling booths in Gosnells at the 2008 WA state election. East in blue, West in orange.

Booth breakdown
Booths have been divided into two halves, divided east and west.

The ALP polled a higher primary vote in both areas. The margin over the Liberal Party was wider in the east.

Voter group ALP % LIB % GRN % Total votes % of ordinary votes
West 42.30 39.08 11.35 9,686 57.07
East 44.14 32.05 13.42 7,286 42.93
Other votes 41.19 37.67 12.09 3,525
Labor primary votes in Gosnells at the 2008 WA state election.
Liberal primary votes in Gosnells at the 2008 WA state election.
Greens primary votes in Gosnells at the 2008 WA state election.

4 COMMENTS

  2. This one might depend on the overall swing. If the result really is 57-43 there will be some surprise Liberal gains, and this could be one of them.

  4. I couldn’t see the swing in Gosnells being as high as the Statewide swing or with what polls are suggesting – Labor retain

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