IND vs ALP 4.0%
Incumbent MP
Adele Carles, since 2009.
Geography
South-western Perth. The seat covers the centre of Fremantle, and stretches from Palmyra to North Coogee.
Redistribution
Small changes to the border with Alfred Cove at the northeastern corner of the seat.
History
The seat of Fremantle has existed continuously since 1890. The seat was held by the ALP continuously from 1924 to 2009.
The seat was held from 1980 to 1990 by David Parker. He served as Deputy Premier briefly from 1988 to 1989 and resigned in 1990.
The 1990 by-election was won by Jim McGinty, despite a large swing against the Labor government.
McGinty served as Labor leader from 1994 to 1996, and as Attorney-General from 2001 to 2008.
After the Labor government lost power in 2008, McGinty resigned and triggered the 2009 Fremantle by-election.
The Greens ran Adele Carles, who had polled over 27% at the 2008 election. The ALP ran former Fremantle mayor Peter Tagliaferri.
The ALP’s primary vote stayed steady, but a 16% swing to the Greens on primary votes put Carles on a 44% primary vote, and gave her 54% of the two-candidate vote.
Carles’ time as a Greens MP didn’t last. In 2010 she admitted to an affair with the Treasurer, Troy Buswell. Her relationship with the Greens broke down, and she resigned as a Greens member. She has served out the remainder of her term as an independent.
Candidates
- Andrew Sullivan (Greens)
- Matthew Hanssen (Liberal)
- Adele Carles (Independent)
- Sanna Andrew
- Simone McGurk (Labor)
- Jan Ter Horst (Independent)
Assessment
A lot has happened in Fremantle since the last vote. Carles is unlikely to perform anywhere near as strongly as last time. The Greens vote was particularly high due to the absence of a Liberal candidate, who will cut into the vote. The Greens and Carles will split the traditional Greens vote, and some of it may even go back to Labor considering Carles’ record in Parliament. The seat is likely to return to Labor.
2008 result
| Candidate | Party | Votes | % | Swing |
| Jim McGinty | ALP | 7,286 | 38.7 | -5.1 |
| Brian Christie | LIB | 5,689 | 30.2 | +3.4 |
| Adele Carles | GRN | 5,191 | 27.6 | +10.5 |
| Julie Hollett | CDP | 350 | 1.9 | +0.2 |
| Andriétte Du Plessis | FF | 318 | 1.7 | -0.1 |
2008 two-candidate-preferred result
| Candidate | Party | Votes | % | Swing |
| Jim McGinty | ALP | 11,667 | 62.0 | -2.1 |
| Brian Christie | LIB | 7,147 | 38.0 | +2.1 |
2009 by-election result
| Candidate | Party | Votes | % | Swing |
| Adele Carles | GRN | 8,722 | 44.1 | +16.5 |
| Peter Tagliaferri | ALP | 7,632 | 38.6 | -0.1 |
| Carmelo Zagami | IND | 999 | 5.1 | +5.1 |
| Nik Varga | IND | 701 | 3.5 | +3.5 |
| Sam Wainwright | IND | 454 | 2.3 | +2.3 |
| Steve Boni | IND | 340 | 1.7 | +1.7 |
| Julie Hollett | CDP | 339 | 1.7 | -0.2 |
| Andriétte Du Plessis | FF | 194 | 1.0 | -0.7 |
| Jan Ter Horst | IND | 188 | 1.0 | +1.0 |
| Rosemary Anne Lorrimar | IND | 171 | 0.9 | +0.9 |
| Rob Totten | CEC | 56 | 0.3 | +0.3 |
2009 by-election two-candidate-preferred result
| Candidate | Party | Votes | % | Swing |
| Adele Carles | GRN | 10,664 | 54.0 | |
| Peter Tagliaferri | ALP | 9,100 | 46.0 |
Booth breakdown
Booths have been divided into three parts. Booths in ‘West’ cover the area around the centre of Fremantle. The other areas are to the north and south of that area.
This grouping is used for both the 2008 result and the 2009 by-election. For the 2008 results, booths have been redistributed according to the redistribution. No redistribution has been imposed on the by-election result.
At the 2008 election, the Labor Party topped the poll in the south and west. The Liberal Party topped the poll, with almost 39%, in the north. The Greens vote peaked at 33.6% in the west, and also beat the Liberals in the south.
At the 2009 by-election, the Greens topped the poll in the north and west, with almost 53% in the west. The ALP won (43.9% vs 41.5%) in the south.
2008 election breakdown
| Voter group | ALP % | LIB % | GRN % | Total votes | % of ordinary votes |
| South | 44.66 | 22.95 | 28.10 | 5,537 | 36.06 |
| North | 32.91 | 38.96 | 20.22 | 5,105 | 33.25 |
| West | 37.19 | 26.33 | 33.55 | 4,713 | 30.69 |
| Other votes | 38.59 | 32.14 | 26.20 | 4,512 |
2009 by-election breakdown
| Voter group | GRN % | ALP % | Total votes | % of votes |
| South | 41.54 | 43.85 | 6,011 | 30.36 |
| North | 42.89 | 33.87 | 4,924 | 24.87 |
| West | 52.94 | 32.93 | 4,679 | 23.64 |
| Other votes | 39.12 | 42.73 | 4,182 | 21.13 |
My prediction: Labor gain
Prediction: ALP Gain
Labor gain. Central Fremantle itself will have some very strong Greens booths. The Green vote will likely be split with Adele Carles (if she is able to maintain popularity following some faux pas that were made public).
Jesus, ‘faux pas’ is putting it mildly.
Interesting HTV card stuff: this is the only electorate in WA the Libs are putting the Greens ahead of Labor (also ahead of Carles). As an independent, Carles could get as much of her vote from usual Lib voters in Bicton (the kind of people who vote for Janet Woollard next door in Alfred Cove) as she would from usual Green voters, maybe even more if some of those Libs are voting tactically (they’re the only party who definitely can’t win, so that could be a factor). Labor won’t come anywhere but first, but there could be a messy three way tie for second between Carles, Greens and Libs. If that happens and Labor can’t get their vote above 40%, keep your eyes peeled for an Andrew Wilkie-type situation.
The good Liberal polling will ironically help Labor here. The Liberals will probably end up finishing second despite themselves, leaving Labor to be easily elected on Carles and Green preferences.
Goodnight, Adele.
She may have left the Greens after her affair with that philanderer Buswell, and the Liberals may have benefited from her vote, but you can bet that they’ll turn on her – even if they support her, I can’t imagine anybody else backing her.
The Liberals governed off her vote, and now they’re turning on her.