Port Phillip council election, 2024

Hey Ben, thanks for these guides!

Just a small correction; Andrew Bond is an Independent Liberal, like Marcus Pearl.

J

It’s worth noting that 2PP vote on the map is quite underestimated in some areas (particularly around St Kilda & Balaclava) due to Macnamara having a huge postal vote from outside Port Phillip – specifically Glen Eira – that is by far the most conservative part of the federal seat.

This makes it differ a lot from looking at similar analysis of suburbs like Fitzroy or Brunswick, where they are in more consistently left-wing federal seats in which the postal vote doesn’t vary so greatly from the polling booth votes, and therefore has less impact on it.

Looking purely at polling places, the wards around St Kilda, St Kilda East and Balaclava had Labor 2PPs of close to 80% (with the Greens winning every booth) so actually very close to the inner north where the polling day 2PPs were in the mid-80s.

But the difference is that Macnamara’s postal vote was closer to 50/50 (due mostly to the Caulfield area) which I think disguises just how left-leaning some parts of this council are. Whereas adding Wills’ postal vote to Brunswick might only bring the 2PP down from 85 to 82 because all of Wills is strongly left-leaning, adding Macnamara’s postal vote brings St Kilda’s 2PP down from 80 to 68 because the biggest postal vote comes from a more Liberal area outside this council.

This isn’t intended to “correct” Ben’s fugures, he already mentioned it himself on Discord when talking about that map, but it’s just worth mentioning because some of the commentary online for example has had people (like Marcus Pearl) talk about St Kilda Ward specifically having a “35-40% blue vote” that needs to go somewhere without a Lib candidate, and I just listen to that and think “Where the hell are you getting a 35-40% Lib vote in St Kilda from?” But it would be either the overall Macnamara vote, or possibly the old Lake Ward vote (which was mostly Albert & Middle Park and didn’t even have all of St Kilda) that they are referencing. Realistically there’s about a 20% “blue vote” around St Kilda & Balaclava, and maybe 25-30% in Elwood.

I’m hoping progressive candidates at least get a clean sweep of Alma, St Kilda, Elwood, Balaclava and either or both of Lakeside & South Melbourne Wards for a majority.

I think Albert Park will go to a conservative, and Montague and Port Melbourne probably to more centrist independents.

My predictions:
Alma – Greens or Justin Halliday
Albert Park – RoPP (unfortunately) or IND LIB
Balaclava – Greens or ALP
Elwood – Louise Crawford (ALP)
St Kilda – Greens or possibly Thomann*
Lakeside – Not sure..
South Melbourne – Greens or ALP
Port Melbourne – Heather Cunsolo (IND)
Montague – One of the INDs

* Labor’s incumbent is preferencing Thomann ahead of Baxter, which if preferences are disciplined enough could make it very close when added to Thomann’s personal vote and the 20-25% more conservative vote.

@ Trent
Is your prediction on Labor winning Elwood ward based on incumbency? I just think it should be a good area for the Greens these days and will help then in running for Macnamara

Yeah I think it will come down to Greens vs ALP there. They have put each other last on their HTVCs so clearly know it’s between them. But I think Louise Crawford having name recognition from incumbency as a former mayor will favour her.

Either way, with only 4 candidates it could be the first to have a reliable prediction if one of them gets over 40% of the primary vote.

Provisional ‘Group A’ primary vote results in for 3 wards last night, with some real surprises.

ELWOOD:
Louise Crawford (ALP) – 29.33%
Lilliana Carranza (GRN) – 28.43%
Janet De Silva (PEPP/IND) – 27.62%
Sally Gibson (IND) – 14.63%

Despite ALP & GRN combining for almost 60%, the real risk here is that they put each other last on their HTV cards, and Sally Gibson also put Janet De Silva second (scrutineer reports are that she’s getting about 50% of them); meaning Janet De Silva is likely to move into first place after Gibson’s exclusion then potentially cause an upset and beat whoever is second out of ALP & GRN off the other one’s preferences, if adherence to the HTVs is somewhat disciplined anyway.

SOUTH MELBOURNE:
Beti Jay (RoPP) – 29.57%
Bridget Mullahy (ALP) – 25.9%
Trina Lewis (IND) – 25.65%
Earl James (GRN) – 18.88%

I expected Labor to win this because it’s a strong area for them and the Greens don’t generally do as well. Scrutineer reports are that apparently there is a very significant donkey vote just numbering 1-4 top to bottom which probably explains Trina Lewis’ strong result, the ballot is Lewis, Jay, James, Mullahy.

On top of this, Trina Lewis also put Beti Jay first on her HTV card. So between HTV adherence and the donkey vote, Beti Jay could win (or at least be 1-2% off reaching 50%) after the first exclusion and looks to have won this ward unless there’s a dramatic shift in the Group B voting patterns.

ST KILDA:
Jenni Roper (IND) – 25.75%
Serge Thomann (PEPP/IND) – 23.33%
David Blakely (IND) – 16.21%
Robbie Nyaguy (ALP) – 14.65%
Tim Baxter (GRN) – 12.19%
Colleen Bolger (VS) – 7.87%

This ward is a REAL surprise. It’s a Greens heartland, Baxter is an incumbent, so his poor result is the biggest shock so far. Part of this may be explained by VS doing much better than I expected with almost 8%, which I assume at the very least will propel Baxter above Nyaguy and possibly even Blakely after the first exclusion. So he could very well jump from 5th to 3rd (with closer to 18%) after Bolger’s exclusion.

His problem is that Nyaguy preferenced him quite low – ALP preferencing the Greens low is a common theme and could cost a few wards a progressive candidate. I don’t know how disciplined preferences will be, by Nyaguy’s exclusion is likely to put Blakely back in third place and then exclude Baxter. Which would be a shame for him, because Blakely actually put Baxter second so his preferences could actually have propelled Baxter into first or second place if he was excluded first. So here it’s really the ALP preferencing decision that will likely result in the 3 INDs retaining the top 3 positions.

Jenni Roper won’t win, everyone except Serge Thomann put her last and Serge Thomann is almost certain to make the final two, so either Thomann will beat Roper on Blakely preferences or Thomann will beat Blakely on Roper preferences. So it’s looking like Thomann will win this.

OVERALL THOUGHTS…
Not what I expected at all. These are 3 of the more progressive wards and I honestly expected all 3 of these to be ALP or GRN, and it’s looking more like 2 PEPP INDs (centrist) and 1 RoPP (right-wing), partly caused by the ALP & Greens’ decision to preference each other low in Elwood & St Kilda and partly by the ballot order in South Melbourne, in addition to what just appears to be a move away from party candidates in general.

The wildcard will be if Group B counting has a different pattern, and if so, how different. Eg. Are late voters more likely to be young, less engaged, and therefore more likely to vote for parties and/or incumbents because they haven’t done their research on INDs? Who knows.

Tonight we are supposed to get provision Group A primary votes for Alma, Albert Park and Lakeside. Here I think Lakeside is a total tossup, no idea what will happen; but I think Alma and Albert Park are more likely to play out as expected than St Kilda, Elwood & South Melbourne were.

Albert Park is a ticket of mostly conservative candidates. RoPP are most likely to top that bunch and benefit from preferences.

Alma (my ward), I’m hoping anyway, has no path for the one conservative (RoPP) guy as his only source of preferences is Dick Gross who did put him second, but being #1 on the ballot will probably either make the final 2 and not have his preferences distributed, or even if they are, he’ll get the donkey vote – especially disengaged people just voting because of his name – and RoPP are last on the ballot so that will benefit Justin Halliday who is second. I think Alma will be between Dick Gross and whoever finishes higher out of Halliday (left IND) and Foster (GRN), and will probably be decided by where Labor’s preferences flow. Which could be anywhere with an open ticket.

Thanks Trent. How did you get these numbers, because I can’t find them on the VEC website. Thanks for the great analysis.

The VEC isn’t publishing anything to the public, but they’re being provided to scrutineers who sometimes share them.

Thanks Darcy, one of the outgoing councillors is collating the scrutineer information from the count each day and putting up live streams to discuss them.

Wednesday’s results:

ALBERT PARK WARD:
Won’t even go into too much detail here but Rod Hardy (RoPP) has over 44% of the primary vote. 4 of the 7 candidates are conservative and preferencing him high, he has clearly won.

This was always going to go to a conservative even when I (wrongly) predicted Port Phillip would likely end up with at least a 6-3 progressive majority. The Greens did poorly here at under 10% with most of the progressive vote going to the independent Rhonda Small.

LAKESIDE WARD:
Bryan Mears (RoPP) – 33.8%
Jo McDonald (IND LIB) – 21.9%
Ivy Pierlot (GRN) – 21.1%
Barney Moore (ALP) – 14.9%
Levi Silcox (PEPP) – 8.3%

Looks like another RoPP win and together with Albert Park and South Melbourne they will increase from 2 seats to 3 and claim the whole middle area of the council around Albert Park Lake. The only possibility of RoPP losing this is a RoPP vs LIB 2CP where Jo McDonald gets the lion’s share of preferences (Greens and Labor both did put RoPP last). Either way it’ll surprisingly be a conservative seat considering the area covers parts of Windsor & St Kilda.

ALMA WARD:
Justin Halliday (IND) – 30.6%
Brendan Perera (RoPP) – 21.9%
Josie Foster (GRN) – 19.7%
Dick Gross (ex-ALP IND) – 17.7%
Jill Horman (ALP) – 10%

The first clear progressive win! RoPP as the only non-progressive candidate were always going to get around 20% due to having the conservative vote to themselves but no chance to actually win.

Justin Halliday who is an excellent progressive independent and ran a really energetic campaign should have this in the bag. The Greens’ relatively poor showing here (it’s an area they get 40-50% primary votes in state & fed elections) is really just due to Justin Halliday winning most of the green/left vote. I’ll disclose that I vote Greens here in state & federal elections, thought I would here too, and ended up voting for Halliday myself.

OVERALL
So far Port Phillip is on track for:
* 3x RoPP (Sth Melb, Albert Park, Lakeside)
* 1x PEPP (St Kilda)
* 1x Progressive Independent (Alma)
..and 1x toss up (Elwood).

On the topic of Elwood, Labor & Greens have combined for 60% split right down the middle, but it’s their decision to preference each other last that looked like it might hand PEPP a win. However, scrutineers are reporting very low adherence to HTVCs so it’s anyone’s race. Could equally go ALP, GRN or PEPP.

Balaclava, Port Melbourne and Montague are counted today (Thursday). My predictions there are probably centrist INDs in Port and Montague, and Balaclava is anyone’s guess but most likely a progressive or centrist IND.

So the council looks like it’ll be comprised of something like 3 conservatives (RoPP), 2-3 progressives, and 3-4 centrists (IND/PEPP), no real majority either way.

In nearby news, despite Labor really struggling in councils they usually do well in (Yarra, Port Phillip, Melbourne), somehow they are comfortably winning South Yarra Ward in Stonnington, outperforming their fed & state results where they usually finish third. In fact Labor, Greens and Victorian Socialists (!!) have combined for around 62% in South Yarra with Labor first on 35%, in an election where parties (especially progressive ones) are struggling in their own heartland.

What a weird election.

Results from the final 3 wards went much like I expected, noting I predicted an IND in Port Melbourne (most likely the incumbent mayor), an IND in Montague, and ALP or Greens in Balaclava. It appears to be exactly how it’s played out.

PORT MELBOURNE:
Heather Cunsolo (IND – Incumbent Mayor) – 42%
Adian King (IND) – 25%
Richard Whitfield (GRN) – 14%
David Wright (ALP) – 13%
Sabina Sablok (PEPP) – 5%

All reports are that Adrian King has run an extremely nasty, negative and personal campaign against Cunsolo and every other candidate has put him last. Cunsolo has easily retained here on preferences. King appears to be a love/hate figure with roughly a quarter of the community supporting his crusade, and the other three-quarters repelled by it.

MONTAGUE:
Alex Makin (IND) – 26%
Peter Martin (ALP) – 26%
Judy Sahayanathan (IND) – 26%
David Knoff (IND) – 11%
Chris Schwarze (PEPP) – 9%

Most likely a two-way race between Makin & Sahayanathan because especially with no Greens candidate, Peter Martin doesn’t have any reliable source of preferences. It’s really hard to tell where either one’s political affiliation lies, both seem relatively centrist: Alex Makin seems to have the support of both right-wing RoPP supporters and an endorsement by Progressive Port Phillip which is really interesting. Judy Sahayanathan I believe might have most of the “blue vote” but seems pretty moderate.

BALACLAVA:
Libby Buckingham (ALP) – 27%
Rachel Iampolski (Greens) – 25%
Berri Wajsbort (IND) – 13%
Alex Darton (IND) – 11%
Michelle Di Donna (PEPP) – 11%
Alex Kats (IND) – 6%
Jon Webster (IND) – 4%

Against the grain of most wards, this one is a clearly an ALP v GRN race. Hard to see anyone else getting a strong enough flow of preferences to make it into the top 2, as they will spray everywhere. Whether Buckingham or Iampolski comes out on top is genuinely a 50/50 toin coss I think.

So with preliminary results now for every ward, I can make some predictions about the overall results and makeup of the next council. I’ll start from the most clear winners through to the most marginal tossups.

ALBERT PARK – Clear win for Rod Hardy (RoPP, conservative)

PORT MELBOURNE – Clear win for Heather Cunsolo (IND, mayor)

SOUTH MELBOURNE – Almost certain upset win for Beti Jay (RoPP / Conservative). It would take a much more favourable Group B result and unexpected preferences flows for Mullahy (ALP) squeak through.

ALMA – Almost certain win for Justin Halliday (IND, progressive). He should comfortably beat anyone on Greens preferences, but if Josie Foster (GRN) were to sneak into second place it might be close because Dick Gross & RoPP both put her above him so she could get favourable preference flows. That’s unlikely though.

LAKESIDE – Very likely win for Bryan Mears (RoPP, conservative). A RoPP vs GRN 2CP is expected which he would comfortably win off McDonald (IND LIB) preferences, but if McDonald were to sneak into second place, she has a chance because most other candidates put RoPP last. Either way it’s a conservative win.

ST KILDA – Leaning towards Serge Thomann (IND, not really partisan). Based on HTVCs and his primary vote, he should win. But preferences could spray everywhere so it’s not really certain. Odds favour him though.

BALACLAVA – Two-way toss up between ALP & GRN. No other candidate has a realistic path into the 2CP and there’s no clear indication of which will get the IND preferences. Progressive win either way.

MONTAGUE – Two-way toss up between the 2 INDs. Currently a three-way tie but Martin (ALP) is unlikely to make the 2CP based on IND preferences. He has an open ticket so it’s 50/50 who out of Makin & Sahayanathan will win.

ELWOOD – Three-way toss up between ALP vs GRN vs PEPP. ALP & GRN combined for almost 60% of the vote but may have hurt the chances of a progressive win by preferencing each other last which gives PEPP a good chance to win from third on preferences. But, Group B votes still to come and HTVC adherence has been very low, it could legitimately go any way.

Council is looking like 3 RoPP (conservative), 3-4 INDs/centrists, and 2-3 progressives, depending on whether ALP/GRN or PEPP get up in Elwood.

It is a shame the progressive parties couldn’t choose compelling candidates for the St Kilda Ward. The Greens could have easily won with the right candidate. I would have loved to vote Greens, as I do in state and federal elections, but the Greens candidate didn’t even live in the Ward, the achievements he listed from his time as Councilor all fell outside the Ward, and his pamphlets showed a very generic platform without understanding of the priority issues for this specific community, with no mention of his plans for Fitzroy Street revamp or safety on Grey Street; he focused instead, strangely, on things like video game studios lying outside of the Ward. Hard to vote for someone whose passion doesn’t seem to lie in the specific Ward, but in the region more broadly, when the purpose of Wards is to have Councilors that represent your area. I really hope the Greens learn from this kind of situation for the upcoming federal election.

I think ‘small p’ politics played a large role in the St Kilda Ward as well. It did not look great that Labor and the Greens preferenced Jenni Roper last, when her platform appeared more progressive than that of the other independents. Without explanation on why they preferenced her last, the optics really just looked like the major parties ganging up on a local independent they were threatened by, and one of the only women running in a heavily male-dominated ballot. Several people I know who usually vote Greens were very put off by this. Lots of lessons to be learnt here for the parties, which I think apply much more broadly.

I also think Tim Baxter made a mistake running in St Kilda Ward, I feel like perhaps he thought it was the ward he had the most chance to win, but also ended up running against fellow incumbent Robbie Nyaguy (who he got along well with in council but the campaign between the two turned nasty) who also didn’t live in St Kilda Ward and made the same mistake. Both were punished for it I think.

In Robbie’s case, I don’t think a Labor candidate would have won Albert Park Ward which probably explains his decision, but Tim Baxter would probably have done better running in Balaclava Ward which ended up being an ALP vs Greens contest, he lives there, he represented the overlapping area in Canal Ward, and would potentially have had an incumbency advantage.

He may not have won still but at least would have made the 2CP and the race would probably have been within 4-5% either way.

St Kilda Ward is a little different to a lot of the others because it’s where a lot of the attractions and tourism are focused. So issues like what to do with the triangle site, revitalisation of Fitzroy & Acland St, the live music precinct etc are at the forefront and are not the usual partisan issues, which is why I think independents who campaign more on those issues do well. Whereas in more residential wards like Elwood, Alma & Balaclava, we got more typical progressive results dominated by ALP & GRN (Elwood/Balaclava) or a very openly progressive IND vs GRN (Alma).

I do think that especially with groups like PEPP and RoPP really focusing on the local independent angle, and specifically targeting the Greens and Labor for not having a local focus, the Greens not choosing candidates who lived in the wards probably hurt them by giving ammunition to the opponents. They should have chosen locals and distributed flyers that had very ward specific policies and it would have negated some of that.

I think the St Kilda Ward contest also got quite nasty. There were some genuine concerns about Jenni Roper using the RiSK Facebook group to her advantage a little unfairly, Roper also appearing to have a lot of support from the RoPP group and their supporters also probably painted her as potentially being a conservative in disguise which no doubt led to being targeted by the progressive groups, also the Tim vs Robbie friction, it created a bit of an atmosphere of people having to pick sides in these little fights going on and in the end I think that hurt both the Greens & Labor and people wanted to be loyal to who they considered more local.

Lots of lessons to be learned. Overall, the southern three wards played out as I expected with progressive results: two ALP v GRN contests and probably the most progressive candidate in the whole election (Justin Halliday) being elected vs the Greens. I just would have expected St Kilda and possibly Lakeside Ward to follow suit.

RoPP’s success (except in Alma Ward) is disappointing. I think they succeeded in presenting themselves as something they are not: apolitical, local, community-minded independents. The unsuccessful Alma Ward candidate even posted just yesterday that he is an “uncompromising conservative” with One Nation affiliations who was behind the Liberals’ Vote No in Macnamara campaign and called Alma Ward a “woke lefty heartland” after he lost. Hardly an apolitical, community-minded local who wants to keep politics out of council like they claimed; and the fact that RoPP would endorse this candidate knowing all of this says a lot about just how “apolitical” they actually are. I hope the voters learn who they are this term and wipe them out in 2028.

Not much difference from the last election except for individual council wards (9).