The City of Casey covers parts of the outer south-east of Melbourne. The council stretches from the shore of Western Port in the south to the foothills of the Dandenong Ranges in the north. It is bordered by Cardinia Shire to the east and by the Frankston, Greater Dandenong and Mornington Peninsula councils to the west.
The council covers the suburbs of Cranbourne, Narre Warren, Berwick, Hallam, Clyde and Tooradin. The council had a population of 365,239 as of the 2021 census.
- Wards
- Redistribution
- Incumbent councillors
- History
- Candidate summary
- Assessment
- Voting trends by ward
Wards
The City of Casey will be divided into twelve single-member wards as of 2024:
- Akoonah – in the north-east, covering parts of Berwick.
- Casuarina – in the northern part of the centre of the City, covering parts of Narre Warren, Narre Warren South and Cranbourne North.
- Correa – in the southern part of the centre of the City, covering Cranbourne East and parts of Cranbourne, Cranbourne North and Clyde North.
- Cranbourne Gardens – in the south-west, covering Cranbourne South, Devon Meadows and Pearcedale.
- Dillwynia – in the east, covering parts of Berwick, Clyde and Clyde North.
- Grevillea – in the north-eastern corner, covering Harkaway and parts of Berwick and Narre Warren North.
- Karola – in the north-western corner, covering Endeavour Hills, Lysterfield South and parts of Narre Warren North.
- Kowan – in the centre of the City, covering parts of Cranbourne North and Narre Warren South.
- Quarters – in the south-west, covering Cranbourne West and parts of Cranbourne.
- River Gum – in the west, covering parts of Hampton Park and Lynbrook.
- Tooradin – in the south-east, covering Clyde and Tooradin.
- Waratah – in the north-west, covering Doverton, Eumemmerring and Hallam.
Redistribution
The council previously consisted of six wards, electing eleven councillors. Five of those wards elected two councillors each, with the sixth ward electing one.
The northern ward of Four Oaks covered the entirety of the new Kalora ward and a majority of the new Grevillea ward.
The north-western River Gum ward covered the entirety of the new Waratah ward and most of the new River Gum ward.
The central Springfield ward covered almost all of the new Casuarina ward and most of the new Kowan ward.
The eastern Edrington ward covered all of the new Akoonah and Dillwynia wards, along with small parts of the new Casuarina, Correa, Grevillea, Kowan and Tooradin wards.
The south-western Mayfield ward covered all of the new Quarters ward, most of the new Correa ward and small parts of the new Cranbourne Gardens, Casuarina and River Gum wards.
The southern Balla Balla ward covered most of the new Cranbourne Gardens and Tooradin wards, but both of those new wards have much greater population density in the small areas that weren’t part of Balla Balla.
Incumbent councillors
The City of Casey’s councillors were all dismissed in February 2020 and replaced with a panel of administrators, and no election was held in October 2020.
History
The City of Casey was created in 1994 as a merger of most of the City of Berwick with parts of the Shire of Cranbourne and the City of Knox.
The council consisted of eleven councillors elected from single-member wards up until a review in 2005, when the council’s wards were re-organised into a structure of five two-member wards and a single one-member ward. This structure was maintained until recent changes restoring single-member wards.
Candidate summary
No information.
Assessment
Casey has not elected a council since 2016 so this will probably create the space for a new generation of councillors. There aren’t clear partisan divisions in this council’s elections, and this might persist in 2024.
Voting trends by ward
In order to understand the relative political position of each ward, I have estimated the results of the 2022 federal election in each ward.
On a two-party-preferred basis, Labor won ten out of twelve wards, with their vote strongest in the north-western wards of River Gum and Waratah. The Liberal Party won a majority in the eastern wards of Akoonah and Dillwynia.
Do the estimated 2pp results take early votes and postal votes into account? As a former long-term resident who still works locally, I’m very surprised to see a pro-Labor figure for Grevillea.
Despite the pro-Labor orientation of much of the area in state and federal elections, previous councils have tended to be dominated by conservatives (of various partisan persuasions).
I have been asking for a while to get our corrupt council back – they seemed more competent than the administrators!
The Grevilla ward includes some strong Liberal territory and is quite affluent. It really should be blue on the map in the future as the area is more settled and nor mortgage belt as much as the south. The Liberals would like an expansion of the council so there could be a purely Green Wedge ward in the south which should be solid blue. Lysterfield South is very affluent and desirable while Doveton nearby is one the poorest urban areas in the country.
Yes, the results take into account early and postal votes, but that does mean it can be averaging out across a federal electorate a bit. I think sometimes you can see a sharp jump when you cross a federal electorate boundary.
Although the Victorian Greens have had endorsed Candidates standing in past City of Casey General Elections I haven’t seen anything to indicate the Greens will endorse any candidates this year. At this point, it is most likely Labor Party members will stand as ‘non endorsed, supported’ candidates. Liberal party members are unlikely to be endorsed by the party.
The Local Government Act 2020 was amended to allow the Minister for Local Government to disqualify a person under Section 34A. It appears the majority if not all the Councillors who previously served will not be disqualified and it is likely a number of these will be Candidates.
As in past election Victorian General Elections the Donkey Vote is likely to have one of the greatest and unrecognised impacts on the results. Problem is the Victorian Electoral Commission (VEC) uses the ‘standard’ definition of a Donkey Vote (i.e. 1% to 2% therefore insignificant) and have not performed the appropriate analysis to determine the actual impact. As the VEC has never flagged there is an issue with the Donkey Vote the politicians have no interest in addressing an issue seen as trivial and insignificant.