Brimbank council election, 2024

The City of Brimbank covers parts of the outer western suburbs including St Albans, Sunshine, Deer Park, Taylors Lakes, Sydenham, Cairnlea, Derrimut, Kings Park, Delahey and parts of Keilor and Tullamarine.

The council had a population of 194,618 as of the 2021 census.

Wards
The City of Brimbank will be divided into eleven single-member wards as of 2024:

  • Albanvale – in the west, covering Albanvale and parts of Deer Park and Kings Park.
  • Cherry Creek – in the south, covering Ardeer and parts of Cairnlea, Derrimut and Sunshine West.
  • Copernicus – in the north, covering parts of Keilor Downs and Taylors Lakes.
  • Delahey – in the north-west, covering Delahey and parts of Kings Park and Sydenham.
  • Grasslands – in the centre, covering parts of Cairnlea and St Albans.
  • Harvester – in the east, covering Sunshine North and parts of Sunshine.
  • Horseshoe Bend – in the north-east, covering Keilor, Keilor Park, Tullamarine, Kealba and parts of Keilor Downs.
  • Kororoit Creek – in the south-east, covering Albion, Brooklyn and parts of Sunshine and Sunshine West.
  • Mount Derrimut – in the south-west, covering parts of Deer Park and Derrimut.
  • Organ Pipes – in the north, covering Calder Park, Keilor North and parts of Keilor Lodge and Sydenham.
  • St Albans East – in the centre, covering parts of St Albans.

Redistribution
The council previously consisted of four wards, electing eleven councillors. The Horseshoe Bend ward elected two members, while the Grasslands, Harvester and Taylors wards each elected three.

The south-western Grasslands ward covered the entire new Albanvale, Grasslands and Mount Derrimut wards, and parts of the new Cherry Creek and Delahey wards.

The south-eastern Harvester ward covered the entire new Harvester and Kororoit Creek and part of the new Cherry Creek ward.

The north-eastern Horseshoe Bend ward covered the entire new St Albans East ward, most of the new Horseshoe Bend ward and a small part of the new Copernicus ward.

The north-western Taylors ward covered the entire new Organ Pipes ward, most of the new Copernicus and Delahey wards and a small part of the new Horseshoe Bend ward.

Incumbent councillors

Grasslands Victoria Borg (Ind) Sarah Branton (Ind) Thuy Dang (Ind Labor)
Harvester Sam David (Ind Labor) Jasmine Nguyen (Ind Labor) Thomas O’Reilly (Ind)1
Horseshoe Bend Jae Papalia (Ind Labor) Virginia Tachos (Ind)
Taylors Maria Kerr (Ind Lib) Bruce Lancashire (Ind) Ranka Rasic (Ind Lab)

1Thomas O’Reilly replaced Trung Luu following a countback in 2023.

History
The City of Brimbank was created in 1994 as an amalgamation of the cities of Keilor and Sunshine as part of Victoria’s council reorganisation process.

The council was elected by nine single-member wards until 2005, when the council shifted to a model of three three-member wards and a single two-member ward. That structure was used at the 2008, 2016 and 2020 elections.

The council was engulfed in accusations in 2008 and 2009 which seemed to revolve around the behaviour of Labor Party figures on the local council. Local councillor Natalie Suleyman, a former Brimbank mayor, was accused of branch stacking by a state Labor MP in 2008.

The majority faction on the council was criticised for how they would vote as a block, and just two of that faction’s members were re-elected in 2008.

A report produced by an investigation into the council was released in 2009, and this led to the council being dismissed later that year, with administrators appointed. The term of administrators ended up being extended and Brimbank lacked elected councillors for seven years, with democracy restored in 2016.

The 2020 election saw five Labor members elected as independents, along with two Liberal members and four other independents.

Throughout the 2020-24 term the mayoralty and deputy mayoralty has been dominated by Labor along with a single independent ally. Ranka Rasic held the mayoralty from 2020 until 2021, followed by Jasmine Nguyen in 2021, Bruce Lancashire in 2022 and Rasic again in 2023.

Council control
The City of Brimbank’s minutes of mayoral elections lacks some crucial details, not publishing the number of votes received by each candidate, or how each councillor voted, so all we know is who ran, who nominated them, and who won.

It appears there is a majority block which includes four of the five Labor councillors, plus independent Lancashire, and it seems likely that the fifth Labor councillor David has usually joined that group after sometimes losing as a third candidate. This group has won every mayoral and deputy mayoral ballot since 2020 and it includes councillors Dang, Lancashire, Nguyen, Papalia and Rasic.

The minority group has contested most elections and has consistently included councillors Borg, Branton, Kerr, Luu and Tachos, and it appears Councillor O’Reilly joined the group after replacing Councillor Luu.

Candidate summary
No information.

Assessment
There are a large number of Labor members sitting on this council. It seems likely that the change in electoral system will produce a majority of Labor members, but whether they work as a block is unknown.

Voting trends by ward
In order to understand the relative political position of each ward, I have estimated the results of the 2022 federal election in each ward.

On a two-party-preferred basis, Labor won every ward. The Labor vote was strongest at the southern end of the council, polling 65% in Kororoit Creek ward. Labor did worse in the northern end of the council, polling 55% in Horseshoe Bend ward.

1 COMMENT

  1. This is the second poorest council in Melbourne. However, if ward were redrawn it is probably possible to redraw a ward where the Libs win the TPP if the Horseshoe Bend ward included all of Keilor and part of Taylors Lakes and excluded all of working class Keilor Downs and Kealba.

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