Werribee – Victoria 2022

If a strong Independent runs here Labor could be in serious trouble here, there was an article that Labor are directing resources here as they are worried about loosing here.

@Bob Yes very good chance for independent. I’m not sure if there’s any local issues for this election but last election i believe there was backlash over plans to build a juvenile prison in Werribee South, i believe they moved it further down the road in the end.

Well Tim Pallas just privatised Vicroads. Would put him at a good chance to lose his seat.

@Mark What in particular about that would make him lose his seat, would the policy negatively effect his seat in a certain way that it wouldn’t others. If the policy was that unpopular that it caused that large of a swing a lot more seats would go before this.

Umm @Mark, if that was the case, he would lose the 2018 state where Port of Melbourne was privatized in 2016

@ Marh

He already had to rely on preferences to carry him in a year where Labor had a 6 pt swing towards them lol

He’s going to be nervous this year as there will almost certainly be a correction. 2018 was Labor’s high water mark and the environment is nowhere near as favourable to Dan as it was back then.

Garra did pretty well here last time, will he run again? Did he live in Werribee South and get redistributed out or does he work in the community that covers the seat of Point Cook, i was wondering because an ABC article i saw awhile ago it suggested Garra hadn’t decided which seat to run in, as if he had multiple options.

@North East, Garra does have some similarities to Dai Le for being a strong local player in politics (although Garra is a GP), and at this moment is the only equivalent I could find in Victoria

The VicRoads privatisation is a reminder of Labor’s hypocrisy – they scaremonger about the Coalition privatising assets when in opposition, but once in government Labor will desperately do anything to raise money to cover all their extravagant spending. As hypocritical as the policy is I don’t think it will cause Pallas to lose the seat. If he loses it will be due to other factors.

Exactly @Entrepreneurial

They did the same thing at the 2018 election with health. Jill Hennessy claimed that the Libs “would cut $1b from health, like they did under Napthine”, when in actual fact, Bailieu/Napthine boosted health funding by over $4b over four years.

The lies that Labor are able to get away with in Victoria are astounding.

Whats interesting is the electorate was extremely in the late 90’s, so it will be interesting to see if the Liberals could pull something like that off here again & get over the line.

If Garra runs Pallas is gone, if anyone else runs I’m not sure. Liberals haven’t even preselected a candidate here, probably hoping an independent runs.

Liberals have selected long-term local and ex Wyndham Mayor Mia Shaw. She has a high local profile. Local party organisation appears weak with no local content on the Werribee Liberals Facebook page. However she might get a swing to her as I don’t think she is as polarising as the showy Intaj Khan (backed by Guy but not liked by local Liberals, who I’m guessing are mostly 70 year old Anglos).

With Garra announcing he is running for Point Cook, rather than Werribee, Pallas`s chances of retaining this seat look better than they did yesterday.

Not implausible that the Libs gain this seat, will be close I reckon. Libs searched outside the party to find a local candidate who is a local councillor. It’s also only a 12% margin.

Here, Point Cook and Melton are the seats in the West to watch I reckon.

12 Candidates here! (As per Votante’s comment on Point Cook)… there would be quite a high informal rate. ALP is definitely in trouble in the Western Suburbs. If one of Melton, Point Cook or Werribee doesn’t fall, I’ll be shocked. For the record, Candidates standing here are from… ALP, LIB, GRN, AJP, FPV, VS, DLP, ND, HAP, IND x3. Agree with @Ham, this corridor is definitely worth watching and I’ll add Laverton with no sitting MP. I think Melton and Point Cook are most likely to flip with strong independents… the other seats have INDs with not as high a profile or too high an ALP margin.

I personally think Melton will flip to the Liberals and I’m unsure about point cook. Because the Liberals have invested a lot of money into Point Cook before Garra announced and they would obviously put Labor last on their HTV cards.

For Werribee, I live in this electorate and do believe Mia Shaw is an EXCELLENT candidate, it’s such a Pitty she’s a liberal because if she was independent, I would bet on money that she could pull of a Dai Le and win this seat. I still believe she could come really close, I’ve never ever gotten this much election material nor seen soo many Liberal placards before, but I think she can come close.

As for my personal predictions. Take with grain of salt I’m just sharing.

Melton – Liberal Gain (Maybe independent)
Point Cook – Marginal Labor hold
Werribee – Marginal Labor Hold

I believe Point cook will be harder for Garra to win as the reason he was able to do so well in Werribee was because of his works as a local GP who birthed most of us. Now that he’s in point cook he doesn’t have that voter base who isn’t active or aware in politics but knows him as the person who delivered their child. For example my former high school’s children were birthed by Garra. So it’ll be interesting to see, I’ve also been told by Labor internals that they are extremely worried about the western suburbs!

Without my bias here, Anyone in Werribee!

Vote One Mia Shaw please 🤞

Any more news on Tim Pallas’ chances in Werribee?

Nothing concrete, but probably isn’t under much threat as there’s no obvious alternative like Garra in Point Cook. The protest voter will split 8 ways and preferences will leak everywhere.

Labor hold. Melton and to a lesser extent, Point Cook, are the only red wall seats under threat.

Tim Pallas will resign as the MP of Werribee and the Victoria Treasurer so By-Election will come

Perhaps Pallas has chosen this timing to resign due to the Pesutto defamation decision which will mean Liberal disunity and chaos, and perhaps less of a chance of this seat falling to the Liberals? Could be a Independent gain though?

Now that a byelection in coming here and if Libs runs here, how would Moira Deeming influence the results (directly or indirectly)?

Probably not as much here. It is outer suburban but not very Christian The newer parts are very South Asian a possible gain for Libs due to economic issues. During the Kennett era this was very marginal.

libs will likel y run as a large swing towards them would be a bad look for labor. unlikely they will win but maybe

@Marh – not too sure. Werribee is definitely more of a socially-conservative seat, the opposite to Prahran. I feel the Liberals will try to sweep Deeming under the carpet, but it’s likely she’ll have a big influence on the by election.

As for predictions, it should be held the same day as Prahran, and as for the result, I’m predicting a fairly-safe Labor retain, but if the Liberals go hard it could be marginal or even an upset gain.

@ James
I am not sure if i will describe as a socially conservative seat maybe on religious based issues yes due to CALD communities however, it was a quite a good result for the Voice in this area due to South Asian community. I think an upset Liberal gain is more possible here than Greenvale.

It’s possibly a wildcard especially if Joe Garra runs here. I predict Labor hold but at a reduced margin.

Can they hold it on February 8 – the same day as Prahran – or is it too late?

@redistributed yes it will most likely be the same date.

I doubt Moira Deeming will care about either by-elections. She’s not a member of the parliamentary Liberal Party and is only a rank-and-file member now.

This will interesting to watch as without the incumbent member and a 10 year old Labor government will really show if there is a anti-Labor swing and how big it is.

Given that the swing in Mulgrave was relatively decent, and that by-election came when the Labor govt were still polling pretty well (and they certainly aren’t now), and the fact that the swing north of the river should be larger than south of it, I’m going to predict a Liberal gain here.

It will be very very tight though.

If the Prahran and Werribee by-elections are on the same day it will be interesting to see the Liberals contesting two polar opposite seats that really represent the conflicting views of who the party should be trying to appeal to.

I’d say they’d put more resources into Werribee for sure. Not just because it’s more winnable, with a (slightly) smaller margin and they’d be competing against the government rather than a third party, but because seats like Werribee are where a lot of the party are their future.

If they can even get close in Werribee with a 7-8% swing, that would make them very confident about picking up seats like Melton, Sunbury and Yan Yean.

Also if Pesutto is still leader, and they do much better in Werribee than Prahran (which I expect they will), it will embolden the right of the party to replace Pesutto with someone like Battin as they’ll see the outer suburbs as their path and will go all in on that strategy.

On that note, does anyone think the prospect of this by-election might prompt the Liberals to move quicker with a leadership spill?

I’d say previously they probably had the Prahran by-election on their minds and perhaps wanted to hold off until after that because a bad result there after replacing Pesutto wouldn’t be a good look.

But with a winnable outer suburban seat up for grabs now at the same time, I wonder if the right-flank would think this is an opportunity to get a leader like Battin in place beforehand, throw everything at that, and if the by-election results show a huge swing (and even possible gain) in Werribee with little to no swing in Prahran, it will reinforce their argument to go all in on the outer suburban strategy.

Finally, if Pesutto gets rolled as leader, any chance he resigns too? Imagine a super by-election day with Prahran, Werribee and Hawthorn. Could end up with and IND to GRN flip (technically since Hibbins became an IND), an ALP to LIB flip, and a LIB to IND flip all on the same day! Musical chairs.

Nah, there are even fewer supporting Moira’s readmission than there were in May 2023.

Only 5/31.

Pesutto is safe for now, but a poor result here (<6% swing) will damage him.

Scart
The 5 who have signed the letter calling for a special party room meeting are doing so to meet the requirements of the party constitution. It does not mean there are only 5 who would support such a motion. Deeming will not be readmitted, though.

Please move this chat over to the by-election guide.