ALP 17.9%
Incumbent MP
Sarah Connolly, since 2018.
Geography
South-Western Melbourne. Tarneit covers northern parts of the City of Wyndham, including the suburbs of Tarneit, Truganina and Hoppers Crossing.
Redistribution
Tarneit lost the eastern part of the seat, including Laverton, Laverton North and Williams Landing, to the new seat of Laverton. Tarneit also expanded slightly towards Werribee.
History
Tarneit has only existed as an electoral district since 2002, and it has been won by the ALP at every election.
Tarneit was won in 2002 by Mary Gillett. She had previously won the seat of Werribee in 1996 and 1999, but her seat was abolished for the 2002 election.
Gillett was defeated for preselection before the 2006 election by Tim Pallas, former chief of staff to Premier Steve Bracks. Tim Pallas was re-elected in 2010, and retired in 2014.
Telmo Languiller shifted to Tarneit in 2014. He had previously represented seats in the same area since 1999.
Languiller was elected Speaker after the 2014 election. Languiller was forced to resign as Speaker in early 2017 after it emerged that he had claimed an allowance for a house far outside of his electorate.
Languiller retired in 2018, and Labor’s Sarah Connolly won Tarneit.
- Jaydeep Patel (New Democrats)
- Aijaz Moinuddin (Independent)
- Claudio Uribe (Victorian Socialists)
- Dylan Wight (Labor)
- Clare Miller (Greens)
- Thomas Jeffrey (Family First)
- Erum Maqsood (Freedom Party)
- Preet Singh (Liberal)
- Maurita Rahn (Animal Justice)
Assessment
Tarneit is a safe Labor seat.
| Candidate | Party | Votes | % | Swing | Redist |
| Sarah Connolly | Labor | 25,084 | 56.2 | +9.4 | 56.7 |
| Glenn Goodfellow | Liberal | 11,460 | 25.7 | -0.7 | 25.9 |
| Beck Sheffield-Brotherton | Greens | 3,398 | 7.6 | -1.4 | 7.7 |
| Arnav Sati | Independent | 1,740 | 3.9 | +3.9 | 3.7 |
| Harkamal Singh Batth | Independent | 1,145 | 2.6 | +2.6 | 2.3 |
| Aaron An | Independent | 1,006 | 2.3 | +2.3 | 1.4 |
| Zulfi Syed | Independent | 802 | 1.8 | +1.8 | 1.4 |
| Others | 1.0 | ||||
| Informal | 3,432 | 7.1 | -0.9 |
2018 two-party-preferred result
| Candidate | Party | Votes | % | Swing | Redist |
| Sarah Connolly | Labor | 30,525 | 68.0 | +3.4 | 67.9 |
| Glenn Goodfellow | Liberal | 14,350 | 32.0 | -3.4 | 32.1 |
Booths have been divided into three areas: north, south-east and south-west.
Labor won a majority of the two-party-preferred vote in all three areas, with about 70% in each area.
| Voter group | IND prim % | ALP 2PP % | Total votes | % of votes |
| South-West | 7.9 | 70.2 | 6,764 | 19.9 |
| North | 15.0 | 69.9 | 5,913 | 17.4 |
| South-East | 8.2 | 70.3 | 5,050 | 14.8 |
| Pre-poll | 8.8 | 65.5 | 12,539 | 36.8 |
| Other votes | 8.4 | 65.7 | 3,796 | 11.1 |
Election results in Tarneit at the 2018 Victorian state election
Toggle between two-party-preferred votes and primary votes for Labor, the Liberal Party and independent candidates.
To put into perspective how different this election will be, the Opposition announced a $100 million plan to build the Wydham A-League Stadium in the Tarneit electorate (17.9% margin) near the border with Kororoit, held on a 24% margin
Up until recently, I don’t think the Liberal party knew where this electorate was on a map let alone would the opposition leader be campaigning in a seat like this.
Lib internal polling suggests that they are competitive in Tarneit and they have never campaigned here before so I guess they figured it’s worth a shot.
But then again this is the same internal polling that made them think that the whole Katherine Deves culture war stuff was a vote winner.
@Dan M, are you referring to Moira Deeming?
Hard to believe libs could be competive here.. safe 17% seats exist because of the pro alp demographics. Maybe a very competent independent could win in the right circumstances but this would be Like me winning. The lottery. The idea of social issues persuading some one to vote against their economic issues strange . Especially on a large scale
@ Mick, in terms of the demographics a lot of this area is a growth area where there is higher median income and educational attainment. Its really only Hoppers Crossing that is established working class
Where is this internal polling coming from I really find it difficult to believe that the LNP can knock this massive margin over.
Out of Werribee, Point Cook, Laverton and Tarneit, I think this seat is the Libs best chance. Why? Demographics, candidates and campaigns. Libs have a local in Preet Singh running a vigorous campaign. Labor’s Dylan Wight looks like a young inexperienced outsider with a less vigorous campaign in a very diverse seat. Incumbent Sarah Connolly is helping him as much as she can but there may still be a large anti-Labor swing.
Re nimalan’s comment, does this make tarneit more like a seat such as Greenway containing some fairly affluent areas like kellyville ridge?
That would imply the liberals have room to grow here and make it a marginal seat with potential to win in future election cycles.
A state seat equivalent might be riverstone in nsw, once Labor leaning but now swing type with a slight conservative tinge
https://www.tallyroom.com.au/vic2022/tarneit2022/comment-page-1#comment-775812
The Tarneit margin is over 5% higher than the Point Cook margin and the Point Cook incumbent (in Altona, which covers most of the seat) is also retiring, so I would classify Point Cook as more likely to fall, although the margin may be a bit big for one election.
Werribee also has a significantly lower margin versus Tarneit, with the ALP having an even lower margin against Garra (who has not, I believe announced whether or not he is running this time).
Well he better hurry up because the election is in 2 months. I thought all the pre-selections are underway now or done and dusted.
The premier had to cancel an appearance at the last minute in this seat today due to a “large amount of interest” in his attendance and the “security measures” that would be required.
His stage managers probably didn’t want a repeat of him being heckled like he was at the Caufield dog park.
Simply way too much margin for Labor to lose here at this election, though I’m predicting the swing will be brutal. One of the Tarneit booths had an 11.85% 2PP swing against Labor – really unusual for an uncontroversial incumbent, in an election Labor won, in a state Labor won by a lot. This election has no incumbent and if Dan Andrews caused the former swings, they’ll be more pronounced here. Liberals don’t seem to have shit the bed on candidate selection here either unlike other seats. But the swings weren’t quite as dire in the more established blue collar suburbs in the electorate compared to the growth areas, and I think that will hold as well.
There were a few double digit swings (towards Labor) at the last state election, but the highest were in the 13s. Of the elections since 1999 the only swings of the magnitude required for Liberals to win Tarneit I can see are Craig Ingram (IND) on his way in and out of Gippsland East, and Russell Savage (IND) being booted out of Mildura in 2006 (may have missed some that didn’t result in seats changing hands).
The Libs could get a 10% swing here and it would still be a safe ALP seat.
@entrepreneur
In seats like this, for the Libs, it’s about setting themselves up for 2026.
If Libs can significantly cut margins all over the north and the west, Labor is going to be spread really thin in 2026.