ALP 14.5%
Incumbent MP
Josh Bull, since 2014.
Geography
North-western Melbourne. Sunbury covers the town of the same name as well as the suburbs of Diggers Rest, Bulla, Gladstone Park, Tullamarine and parts of Westmeadows. The electorate also covers Melbourne’s main airport. Most of the electorate lies in the City of Hume, along with small parts in Brimbank, Melton and Moreland council areas.
Redistribution
Gowanbrae was moved from Sunbury into Niddrie. This change increased the Labor margin from 14.3% to 14.5%.
History
Sunbury was a new electorate when created in 2014, and the name had not previously been used.
The electorate of Macedon was created in 2002 in part as a successor to the electorate of Gisborne. Labor MP Joanne Duncan held Macedon from 2002 until 2014, after first winning Gisborne in 1999.
Yuroke was also created in 2002, replacing the seat of Tullamarine. Tullamarine had existed since 1992. Liberal MP Bernie Finn had represented Tullamarine from 1992 to 1999. Finn returned to Parliament as a member of the Legislative Council representing the Western Metropolitan region in 2006, and was re-elected in 2010.
Labor’s Liz Beattie won Tullamarine in 1999. She shifted in Yuroke in 2002, and represented that seat until 2014.
Both Duncan and Beattie retired in 2014, and Labor’s Josh Bull won the new seat of Sunbury. Bull was re-elected in 2018.
- Rohanna Mohr (Animal Justice)
- Charles Pace (Family First)
- Simmone Cottom (Liberal)
- Peter Bayliss (Democratic Labour)
- Josh Bull (Labor)
- James Gallagher (Victorian Socialists)
- Richard Burke (Greens)
- Rushi Vijaykumar Patel (New Democrats)
- Laurence Pincini (Independent)
Assessment
Sunbury is a safe Labor seat.
| Candidate | Party | Votes | % | Swing | Redist |
| Josh Bull | Labor | 22,749 | 58.4 | +14.3 | 58.6 |
| Cassandra Marr | Liberal | 13,178 | 33.8 | -2.3 | 33.7 |
| Ryan Keable | Greens | 3,028 | 7.8 | -0.1 | 7.7 |
| Informal | 2,476 | 6.0 | +0.3 |
2018 two-party-preferred result
| Candidate | Party | Votes | % | Swing | Redist |
| Josh Bull | Labor | 25,011 | 64.3 | +10.0 | 64.5 |
| Cassandra Marr | Liberal | 13,868 | 35.7 | -10.0 | 35.5 |
Booths in Sunbury have been divided into four areas. Two of these areas are clustered in the Sunbury area, and these booths are split into Sunbury East and Sunbury West. Polling places in the far south-eastern corner of the electorate have been grouped as “South”, with the remaining polling places grouped as “Central”.
Labor won a majority of the two-party-preferred vote in all four areas, ranging from 64.3% in Central to 69.2% in Sunbury West.
| Voter group | ALP 2PP % | Total votes | % of votes |
| Sunbury West | 69.2 | 5,716 | 15.4 |
| South | 65.3 | 5,454 | 14.7 |
| Sunbury East | 67.6 | 4,285 | 11.6 |
| Central | 64.3 | 1,413 | 3.8 |
| Pre-poll | 62.6 | 15,706 | 42.3 |
| Other votes | 61.7 | 4,519 | 12.2 |
Labor putting in resources here. Hard to believe on a 14.5% margin.
Sunbury, tends to be quite different for NW melbourne. It tends to more affluent than say Cragieburn or Melton. Going into the 2018 election it only had a 4.3% margin. In a good year both state and federal Libs have won booths in Sunbury. The old seat of Tullamarine which covers much of the same area was won by the Libs during the Kennett Years. In fact the entire M79 Corridor from Moonee Ponds onwards is more middle class for this part of Melbourne (Essendon, Keilor, Taylors Lakes etc). Sunbury is also a growth area but is not seeming to attract many people of non European heritage unlike say Melton, Cragieburn Wyndham, Cranbourne etc. I guess Sunbury is also the Gateway to the Macedon Ranges which is increasingly affluent these days.
The margin here is inflated, this electorate could fall if Labor have a bad night.
What part of NSW is Sunbury analogous to?
From a Brisbane perspective, I think Sunbury-Tullamarine may be like the Ferny Grove area, being fairly affluent in nature and also not as secure for Labor compared to other strongholds like Ipswich.
It feels a bit like the Camden area in NSW.
Agree with the Camden comparison. It is a growth area that is quite middle class. Like Camden it t has a bit of distinct identity and an independent country town feel.
Good points Adam and Nimalan, in that case Tullamarine airport is probably akin to the new Badgerys Creek airport in Western Sydney.
It’s part of the growth corridor and outer northern/western suburbs that could produce anti-Dan swings. There were swings away in McEwen and Calwell federally but in Sunbury proper, the anti-Labor swings were not too high.
The west and north of Melbourne are different to the outskirts of Sydney, which are strongly Liberal-voting.
A key thing to keep in mind is local politics – the Government approved the dump of toxic soil from some of their construction projects in the electorate which has enraged the electorate and has been taken up by the Opposition as an attack line against the Government and the incumbent MP.
The electorate has also seen a level crossing removal project fast tracked from after the election to before it, that particular announcement was made the same week the Ombudsman announced an investigation into the approval process for the toxic soil dump.
So while it’s a ‘safe’ seat, the demographics many have already indicated plus local politics makes this a volatile seat. If Labor has done enough to keep the electorate content, then the swings we saw federally alone won’t be enough to throw out the local MP. If however the community feels neglected and taken for granted then there is every risk the Government could lose this seat.
Labor will remove the Diggers Rest Level Crossings to make entire line free of Level Crossings. I do believe this area will see an Anti-Labor swing and there will be quite a few blue booths in November. During the 1990s the old Tullamarine seat which covered much of the same area was held by the Libs
Tullamarine electroate was hold by the Libs back possibly because back then Sunbury and the Diggers Rest area was more like a regional centre rather than a commuter town plus there may be a higher proportion of voters back then being in very low density area in the vicinity west and north of the Airport
Fair point Marh about Sunbury the only point i would make is that Sunbury is somewhat permanently separated from the urban sprawl by Melbourne Airport which makes it a bit different from Melton or Craigieburn. It also unlike other growth areas of Melbourne does not tend to attract a lot of non-European immigrants. Going into 2018 it also only had a 4.3% margin.
Nimalan, a good point . Sunbury won’t be merged into Mainland Melbourne in the future unlike Melton, Pakenham (already) and even Wallan due to the Green Wedge partly attributed by the flight path.
@Marh Pakenham/Clyde and Mickleham etc are also becoming quite ethnically diverse but that does not seem to be happening in Sunbury. We have seen Pakenham change from a safe Liberal area to volatile mortgage belt area. The Clyde booth has perhaps seen the biggest change is voting pattern from 2004 75% Liberal to 2019 57% Labor. i expect longer term Wallan will become just another Northern suburb and rock solid Labor.