South Eastern Metropolitan – Victoria 2022

Incumbent MLCs

• Tien Kieu (Labor), since 2018
• David Limbrick (Liberal Democrats), since 2018³
• Gordon Rich-Phillips (Liberal), since 1999
• Adem Somyurek (Independent), since 2002¹
• Lee Tarlamis (Labor), since 2020²

¹Adem Somyurek resigned from the Labor Party on 15 June 2020.
²Lee Tarlamis replaced Gavin Jennings in April 2020 following Jennings’ resignation.
³David Limbrick resigned from the Legislative Council in April 2022 and was re-appointed to the same seat in June 2022.

• Geography
• Redistribution
• History
• 2018 result
• Preference flows
• Candidates
• Assessment
• Booth breakdown
• Results maps

Geography

The South Eastern Metropolitan region covers Melbourne’s outer south-eastern suburbs, stretching from Clayton and Rowville in the north to Frankston and Cranbourne in the south, and from Mordialloc in the west to Narre Warren in the east.

The region includes nine Labor seats and two Liberal seats.

Redistribution
The South Eastern Metropolitan expanded to the east, taking in the newly created seat of Berwick, which includes areas previously contained in the Eastern Victoria.

The electorate of Keysborough was abolished, with Berwick bringing the region up to quota.

There were smaller changes to the northern and north-western borders.

These changes improved the Liberal vote and reduced the Labor vote.

History
The South Eastern Metropolitan region was created in 2006, when proportional representation was introduced.

The first election saw three Labor and two Liberal MLCs elected. The 2010 election repeated the same result.

Labor lost their third seat to the Greens in 2014.

Labor regained their third seat in 2018, with both Liberal and the Greens losing a seat. The fifth seat went to the Liberal Democrats.

2018 result

Preference flows
On primary votes, Labor won two seats, and the Liberal Party one. Labor was also just short of a third full quota.

Let’s fast-forward until there were fifteen candidates running for the last seat. The Liberal Democrats had already increased from a primary vote of 0.051 quotas to 0.069.

• Tien Kieu (ALP) – 0.969 quotas
• Inga Peulich (LIB) – 0.732
• Nina Springle (GRN) – 0.352
• Peter Davy (DHJ) – 0.185
• Elizabeth Johnston (AJP) – 0.137
• Ali Khan (TMP) – 0.097
• Peter Stevens (DLP) – 0.089
• Chris Banhidy (SFF) – 0.089
• David Limbrick (LDP) – 0.069
• Laura Chipp (RP) – 0.056
• Tamsin King (HAP) – 0.053
• Kassandra Hall (VEP) – 0.045
• Anthony Cresswell (SUS) – 0.044
• David Armstrong (ABP) – 0.040
• David Maddison (ALA) – 0.032

Liberty Alliance preferences flowed to the LDP, pushing them into sixth place:

• Kieu (ALP) – 0.969
• Peulich (LIB) – 0.732
• Springle (GRN) – 0.352
• Davy (DHJ) – 0.186
• Johnston (AJP) – 0.137
• Limbrick (LDP) – 0.097
• Khan (TMP) – 0.097
• Stevens (DLP) – 0.090
• Banhidy (SFF) – 0.090
• Chipp (RP) – 0.056
• King (HAP) – 0.054
• Hall (VEP) – 0.045
• Cresswell (SUS) – 0.044
• Armstrong (ABP) – 0.041

Aussie Battler preferences also went to the Liberal Democrats:

• Kieu (ALP) – 0.969
• Peulich (LIB) – 0.733
• Springle (GRN) – 0.352
• Davy (DHJ) – 0.187
• Johnston (AJP) – 0.137
• Limbrick (LDP) – 0.133
• Khan (TMP) – 0.097
• Stevens (DLP) – 0.090
• Banhidy (SFF) – 0.090
• Chipp (RP) – 0.056
• King (HAP) – 0.054
• Hall (VEP) – 0.045
• Cresswell (SUS) – 0.045

Sustainable Australia preferences also flowed to the Liberal Democrats:

• Kieu (ALP) – 0.969
• Peulich (LIB) – 0.733
• Springle (GRN) – 0.353
• Davy (DHJ) – 0.188
• Limbrick (LDP) – 0.169
• Johnston (AJP) – 0.139
• Khan (TMP) – 0.097
• Banhidy (SFF) – 0.091
• Stevens (DLP) – 0.090
• Chipp (RP) – 0.056
• King (HAP) – 0.054
• Hall (VEP) – 0.045

Voluntary Euthanasia preferences flowed to Reason:

• Kieu (ALP) – 0.970
• Peulich (LIB) – 0.733
• Springle (GRN) – 0.355
• Davy (DHJ) – 0.189
• Limbrick (LDP) – 0.169
• Johnston (AJP) – 0.140
• Khan (TMP) – 0.097
• Chipp (RP) – 0.094
• Banhidy (SFF) – 0.091
• Stevens (DLP) – 0.090
• King (HAP) – 0.055

Health Australia preferences flowed to Transport Matters:

• Kieu (ALP) – 0.970
• Peulich (LIB) – 0.734
• Springle (GRN) – 0.356
• Davy (DHJ) – 0.190
• Limbrick (LDP) – 0.170
• Khan (TMP) – 0.145
• Johnston (AJP) – 0.141
• Chipp (RP) – 0.095
• Stevens (DLP) – 0.091
• Banhidy (SFF) – 0.091

Democratic Labour preferences flowed to Transport Matters:

• Kieu (ALP) – 0.970
• Peulich (LIB) – 0.736
• Springle (GRN) – 0.356
• Khan (TMP) – 0.227
• Davy (DHJ) – 0.190
• Limbrick (LDP) – 0.171
• Johnston (AJP) – 0.142
• Chipp (RP) – 0.095
• Banhidy (SFF) – 0.092

Shooters preferences flowed to the Liberal Democrats:

• Kieu (ALP) – 0.971
• Peulich (LIB) – 0.738
• Springle (GRN) – 0.357
• Limbrick (LDP) – 0.251
• Khan (TMP) – 0.227
• Davy (DHJ) – 0.192
• Johnston (AJP) – 0.143
• Chipp (RP) – 0.095

Reason preferences flowed most strongly to Animal Justice:

• Kieu (ALP) – 0.975
• Peulich (LIB) – 0.738
• Springle (GRN) – 0.367
• Limbrick (LDP) – 0.252
• Khan (TMP) – 0.228
• Johnston (AJP) – 0.215
• Davy (DHJ) – 0.195

Justice Party preferences flowed most strongly to the Liberal Democrats:

• Kieu (ALP) – 0.978
• Peulich (LIB) – 0.741
• Limbrick (LDP) – 0.423
• Springle (GRN) – 0.369
• Khan (TMP) – 0.230
• Johnston (AJP) – 0.218

A majority of Animal Justice preferences flowed to Transport Matters, with a significant share also going to the Liberal Democrats:

• Kieu (ALP) – 0.979
• Peulich (LIB) – 0.743
• Limbrick (LDP) – 0.492
• Springle (GRN) – 0.377
• Khan (TMP) – 0.352

Transport Matters did very well to get so far but were knocked out at this point, with their preferences flowing in part to the Greens, but with more going to the Liberal Democrats:

• Kieu (ALP) – 0.996
• Peulich (LIB) – 0.744
• Limbrick (LDP) – 0.692
• Springle (GRN) – 0.500

Greens preferences primarily flowed to Labor, pushing them well over quota, with some others going to the Liberal Party and very few flowing to the Liberal Democrats:

• Kieu (ALP) – 1.295
• Peulich (LIB) – 0.881
• Limbrick (LDP) – 0.696

The Labor surplus flowed almost entirely to the Liberal Democrats, electing them ahead of the Liberal Party for the fifth seat.

• Limbrick (LDP) – 0.980
• Peulich (LIB) – 0.883

Candidates

• A – Rachel Payne (Legalise Cannabis)
• B – Geraldine Gonsalvez (Health Australia)
• C – David Limbrick (Liberal Democrats)
• D – Beth Stevens (One Nation)
• E – Derryn Hinch (Derryn Hinch’s Justice)
• F – Lavanya Thavaraja (Victorian Socialists)
• G – Daniel Costin Puscasu (Restore Democracy Sack Dan Andrews)
• H – Alex Breskin (Greens)
• I – Barry Edward Minster (Angry Victorians)
• J – Bhaveshkumar Vasantlal Lakhatariya (New Democrats)
• K – Norm Dunn (Transport Matters)
• L – Marissa Sarif (Companions and Pets)
• M – Martin Leahy (Reason)

• N – Labor
  1. Lee Tarlamis
  2. Michael Galea
  3. Tien Kieu
  4. Imran Khan
  5. Katrina Sullivan
• O – Jennifer Bowden (Democratic Labour)

• P – Liberal
  1. Ann-Marie Hermans
  2. Manju Hanumantharayappa
  3. Antonietta Moricca
  4. Lyndon Samuel
  5. Michael Keane
• Q – Morgan C. Jonas (Freedom Party)
• R – Brandon Hoult (Sustainable Australia)
• S – Grant Poulton (Shooters, Fishers & Farmers)
• T – Bronwyn Currie (Animal Justice)
• U – Matt Babet (United Australia)
• V – Lee Jones (Family First)

• Ungrouped
  1. Mehdi Sayed (Independent)

Assessment
Labor did very well in the South East in 2018. They will retain their first two seats, and have a good shot of winning back a third seat.

The Liberal Party would need a small swing to win back their second seat.

There is also potential for a smaller party to win a seat.

Regional breakdown
Labor topped the poll in South Eastern Metropolitan by a large majority.

Labor topped the primary vote in ten out of eleven seats, with the Liberal Party first in Rowville.

The Labor primary vote ranged from 36.5% in Rowville to 60.6% in Dandenong.

The Liberal primary vote ranged from 19.8% in Dandenong to 40.8% in Rowville.

Results of the 2018 Victorian upper house election in the South Eastern Metropolitan region

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