ALP 22.0%
Incumbent MP
Natalie Suleyman, since 2014.
Geography
Western Melbourne. St Albans covers the suburbs of Cairnlea, Kealba, Keilor Downs, St Albans, Sunshine North and parts of Albion. St Albans lies entirely within the City of Brimbank.
Redistribution
St Albans gained Cairnlea from Kororoit, while losing the remainder of Sunshine and part of Albion to Laverton. These changes increased the Labor margin from 21.6% to 22.0%.
History
St Albans was created at the 2014 election, and it largely replaced Derrimut. Both Derrimut and St Albans had previously existed as electorates in the Victorian Parliament.
Both Derrimut and St Albans were first created in 1985, and both were abolished in 1992.
Alex Andrianopoulos held St Albans during this period, and David Cunningham held Derrimut, both representing Labor.
In 1992, Andrianopoulos shifted to Mill Park, and Cunningham won Melton. Cunningham retired in 1999, and Andrianopoulos retired in 2002, after serving as Speaker from 1999 to 2002.
The new Derrimut was won in 2002 by Telmo Languiller, who had won the seat of Sunshine in 1999, but moved to Derrimut when Sunshine was abolished. He was re-elected in 2006 and 2010. Languiller switched to the seat of Tarneit in 2014. He served as Speaker from 2014 until 2017.
Labor’s Natalie Suleyman won St Albans in 2014, and was re-elected in 2018.
- Maria Kerr (Liberal)
- Mark Hobart (Democratic Labour)
- Van Thanh Rudd (Victorian Socialists)
- Russell Walton (Family First)
- Natalie Suleyman (Labor)
- Zaffer Mannan (New Democrats)
- Joel Bentley (Greens)
- Virginia Tachos (Independent)
- Kim J. Cullen (Freedom Party)
- Jason Caracassis (Animal Justice)
Assessment
St Albans is a very safe Labor seat.
| Candidate | Party | Votes | % | Swing | Redist |
| Natalie Suleyman | Labor | 22,355 | 59.7 | +3.3 | 60.7 |
| Trung Luu | Liberal | 9,116 | 24.3 | -2.6 | 24.0 |
| Cylene Magri | Greens | 4,600 | 12.3 | +3.1 | 11.2 |
| Jenny Isa | Independent | 1,393 | 3.7 | +3.7 | 3.0 |
| Others | 1.0 | ||||
| Informal | 2,927 | 7.2 | -0.6 |
2018 two-party-preferred result
| Candidate | Party | Votes | % | Swing | Redist |
| Natalie Suleyman | Labor | 26,326 | 71.5 | +4.0 | 72.0 |
| Trung Luu | Liberal | 10,475 | 28.5 | -4.0 | 28.0 |
Booths have been divided into three areas: central, north and south.
Labor won a majority of the two-party-preferred vote in all three areas, ranging from 67.7% in the south to 77.3% in the centre.
The Greens came third, with a primary vote ranging from 10.8% in the north to 13.1% in the south.
| Voter group | GRN prim % | ALP 2PP % | Total votes | % of votes |
| Central | 12.4 | 77.3 | 5,516 | 14.8 |
| North | 10.8 | 70.5 | 5,343 | 14.3 |
| South | 13.1 | 67.7 | 1,487 | 4.0 |
| Pre-poll | 10.6 | 71.3 | 20,573 | 55.2 |
| Other votes | 12.7 | 71.0 | 4,380 | 11.7 |
Election results in St Albans at the 2018 Victorian state election
Toggle between two-party-preferred votes and primary votes for Labor, the Liberal Party and the Greens.
This electorate has one of the highest prepoll % in the state behind only Nepean. Is there a correlation between high prepoll and sizeable swings against an incumbent?
There’s also a fairly high profile local independent running here. I know the margin is quite large but could be interesting on the night…
I don’t know if there’s any correlation but if I recall in the federal election Moreton had the highest prepoll % vote and there was a 7% swing to the Labor incumbent.
Even if there’s an unprecedented 20% swing to the Libs here, Labor will still retain this seat
This is more Labor leaning than even Campbelltown in NSW, so in a 2011 style wipeout this wouldn’t fall. This would only fall in a reverse 2021 WA, But even then it would be close.
The only real pattern is that, in most seats, prepoll is a bit more conservative than election day votes. Pensioners voting mid-week etc.
Doesn’t mean much in terms of swing though. Especially not given that everyone is starting to vote early anyway.
I would say this even more Labor than Campbelltown it is more like the NSW state seat of Fairfield or parts of Logan such as Woodridge. It is Melbourne’s second poorest seat after Dandenong and it has Victoria’s highest % of non-english speakers. I would say Werribee is similar to Campbelltown.
Virginia Tachos as Indy-that brings back Melb Uni Student Politics memories from 30+ years ago.
@GR – and what were those memories from 30+ years ago?
The student association president from my uni days is in parliament too! But in my case, he’s a Labor MP.
Virginia Tachos was in Labor Party then & Labor Club which self destructed in spectacular style impelling David Feeney & Kathy Jackson to the heights. Tachos & Greenvale Indy seem to be cooperating.
The Liberals actually won a booth here.
Pretty extraordinary in a seat like this.
Actually, they won two booths here but the other one is really tiny.
2PP for Labor (vs Liberal)
Ordinary 57%
Postal 62%
Prepoll 61%
Very rarely do I see postals and prepolls being more Labor-friendly than the polling day vote.
@GR – Thanks
I really found Podcast 110, where Ben interviewed Shaun Ratcliff from Accent Research, quite astute. This led me to explore Accent Research further, and I stumbled upon the following publication, which I have linked below at the end of this post. The publication examined key demographics and their support for the Voice. Two crucial demographic factors stood out. Firstly, when looking at languages spoken at home, those who spoke only English were 61:39 in favour of ‘No,’ while those who spoke another language broke 53:47 in favour of the voice. Another factor was religion; those who practiced a religion other than Protestantism or Catholicism split 50:50. While these results are not overwhelming, they do suggest that individuals from CALD communities were more likely to support the voice, all else being equal.
I posted on the St Albans thread as this is the state electorate with the highest percentage of non-English speakers and it experienced a savage anti-Labor swing at the state election, with some suggesting it is evidence of realignment. This is the second-poorest seat after Dandenong. Yet when we look at corresponding booth results, it is quite interesting. The vast majority of the booths voted ‘Yes,’ even the PPVC voted only narrowly ‘No’ at 50% in Sunshine and 54% in St Albans, still much higher support for the voice than the national average. It was pointed out that the Libs managed to win a polling booth here, St Albans East. It is interesting that that booth voted ‘Yes’ to the voice, albeit narrowly. The St Albans East booth showed a 29.5% TPP swing to the Libs, and Labor lost 25% of the PV, yet the Libs only managed to increase their PV by 2.2%. That booth also had a 10.2% support for the Victorian Socialists. In the Teal areas where the Libs have suffered, we have not seen an increase in the far-right vote like we are seeing an increase in support for the far-left in terms of the Victorian Socialists in deprived working-class ethnic areas like St Albans, Thomastown, or Broadmeadows. So, the question really is whether this is a short-term backlash or something more long-term.
There has been debate within the Victorian Liberals on whether they should remain committed to a treaty in the aftermath of the voice referendum. Some suggested that this should mean that the Libs could focus on Melbourne’s West and North. However, these areas have a younger and more ethnically diverse population than Victoria as a whole, so I am not sure if being anti-voice/treaty will mean that the Libs can win over Labor heartlands in ethnically diverse areas.
The real threat for Labor in such seats seems to be a Dai Le-style independent, although that requires a perfect storm of circumstances (including the Liberals running dead). In the case of St Albans, Natalie Suleyman is of Turkish Cypriot background and is the first Muslim woman to be elected to the Victorian Parliament and be made a minister as well. She was previously the Mayor of Brimbank as well.
https://www.accent-research.com/projects/the-voice